Source: Silicon Valley Girl

Organizer: Felix, PANews

Summary: Any job that can be called a "craft" is not easily replaceable, as AI is not good at handling the nuances involved.

Bill Gurley has witnessed countless career highs and lows over 25 years. The companies he invested in are worth over 50 billion dollars, and those who lose everything are not the ones who dare to take risks, but those who choose to play it safe.

In the Silicon Valley Girl podcast, Bill Gurley primarily discussed how AI is changing work, which professions will disappear first, and what actions can be taken if jobs have already begun to shrink. PANews summarized some highlights of the conversation.

Host: I had a question prepared, but just now there was news that Block is laying off nearly half its employees to boldly embrace AI. Should people be scared?

Bill: Yes, but we need to set some conditions. AI tools have emerged over the past two to three years and will not be retracted or disappear. The most direct advice for anyone in any field to protect themselves from AI's impact is: become the "AI-empowered" version of yourself as much as possible. You need to understand where the boundaries of AI capabilities are in your field and utilize it as much as you can. The more you use it, the more types of prompts you can think of, and you'll start to understand its capabilities. If you don't actively take advantage of it, you'll be far behind those who do.

Its novelty lies in the fact that it is impacting white-collar jobs, which people previously considered "safe." If you are truly replaced, you can ask yourself: is this really a job you love and want to do? If not, this might be your chance to seek what you are truly passionate about.

Host: We once thought that intelligence could help us smoothly navigate through life. But now you say "playing it safe/stability is the riskiest move now." Can you explain?

Bill: I think the unfortunate reality is that many career advisors, counselors, and parents often push people toward jobs they consider "safe." But if you don't love your job, a 2023 Gallup poll found that over 50% of people lack positive engagement at work, with only about 23% actually "engaged." If you are in a role that you don't care about and feel no motivation to improve yourself, you will be like a live target in the face of these changes. Parents may want economic stability for their children, but life is only lived once; if you can find something that you are extremely curious about, you will create a huge gap between yourself and those around you, and the economic returns will follow.

Host: Can you list three characteristics of people who are not "playing it safe"? What do they do every day?

Bill: First, they allow themselves to pursue careers they once thought were impossible. For example, Shake Shack founder Danny Meyer was originally going to law school to become a lawyer, but with his uncle's encouragement, he faced his lifelong hobby of looking for good restaurants on weekends and writing journals, ultimately choosing to work in food service. Secondly, refining your craft and continuous learning. If you love something, you will continue to learn relentlessly out of curiosity; absorbing new information fills you with energy, while being forced to take classes in an area you dislike only makes you feel dull and drains your energy. Lastly, being at the forefront of knowledge. AI and large language models capture the best practices that have already been written, but the cutting-edge knowledge being explored today is not yet in the models. If you are the one who masters that cutting-edge knowledge, you are ahead of the AI models.

Host: When evaluating founders, what kind of behavior is considered "not playing it safe"?

Bill: In fact, I believe the entire venture capital community has realized that one must never have a "play it safe" mentality when choosing founders. I think the best and brightest are very independent thinkers. They inherently break conventional thinking. If someone thinks that some of them seem a bit "crazy" for their doggedness, that might be true as well. I don't think I'm the only one who would say this. If you research the writings of venture capitalists, you will find almost a trend toward looking for this type of personality trait. This can be traced back to Steve Jobs' advertisement about "crazy people."

Host: It feels like everyone should adopt this "crazy" mindset to succeed in today's world, because you are becoming the entrepreneur of your own life, right?

Bill: Yes. I think that's a great way to express it. Particularly in certain fields, this new technology has brought so much disruption; if you don't take control of your career path, you are likely to face risks. I often say that if you are a person with high subjective initiative and full of confidence in driving your career development, these tools are essentially a "jetpack." Historically, there has never been a time when you could learn as fast as now, except with AI. There are also podcasts, like the ones you do. You can find interviews everywhere on YouTube, allowing you to learn at an unprecedented speed. This is also part of why I don't react much to "AI anxiety," because anxiety can freeze you and what you need to do now is run as fast as you can.

Host: Sometimes when I'm scrolling through my phone, I hear people, including you, say: we have a closing opportunity window, so we should work very hard to seize this chance now. Can you elaborate? How much time do we have left? How hard do we need to work?

Bill: I don't think the window is necessarily closing, but this tool has come too quickly, with too many functionalities, and everyone must quickly figure out what it can do in their industry. I don't like those dystopian apocalyptic narratives; for example, Dario can be said to be one of the most severe doomsayers, and he always has the discourse power. I don't think this narrative is healthy. This anxiety is five times higher in the U.S. than in China. While this anxiety sometimes can stimulate people to take action, it is more likely to make them afraid to act. Rather than being anxious, what needs to be done now is to run as fast as possible.

Host: You also mentioned that "forgetting/giving up on things that once made you successful" is very important. How do you do that?

Bill: There is a saying, "Strong opinions, loosely held." Without strong opinions, it's difficult to take action, but never treat any opinion as sacred and unchangeable. If you cultivate a habit of continuous learning and realize that clinging to one's own views carries risks, you will be best positioned to judge when to let go of past experiences.

Host: Facing so many curious things, how do you find a direction that can become a lifelong career? What if you choose wrong?

Bill: You can try to develop a "hobby" into a career. For example, I was an engineer for two and a half years, and after returning home, I read Peter Lynch's "Beating the Street," started researching and trading stocks, and that fascinated me, leading me to Wall Street. Don't feel trapped because you don't know the answer; many people only find their perfect career match in their 30s or 40s. Create as many "shooting opportunities" for yourself as possible, and reflect once a year: "Is this what I want to do for the rest of my life? Will I still want to do this in 30 years?" Once the answer is "no," you should go seek other directions. Bezos' "regret minimization framework" is similar, which is to imagine what advice your 80-year-old self would give regarding your current career choices. We've conducted surveys, and if people could go back and start over, 6 out of 10 would make different career choices. Many people choose wrong because they listened to compliments from professors or followed their parents' advice to pursue economic stability by becoming doctors or lawyers, without asking themselves what they genuinely love for life.

Host: Can you list some jobs that can resist the impact of AI and those that are about to be eliminated?

Bill: The first to be threatened are language-processing jobs, such as translation, legal assistants, etc. because large language models are very good at reorganizing text. Additionally, if your job is just mechanically writing code day in and day out, the demand will also decrease, as code is essentially a language with stricter constraints than natural language. However, if you are someone who understands structurally why one algorithm is superior to another or knows how to streamline code to make it more efficient, I believe those skills will still hold value. But I want to return to a previous point: the best way to be an excellent software engineer in an AI world is to be the one who understands how all the new AI tools work. Be the person in your organization who actively embraces them, rather than rejects them.

On the other hand, jobs that can resist AI are any that can be dubbed "craftsmanship" jobs, as they deeply understand the "nuances" of their fields, which AI is not good at handling. Moreover, interpersonal relationships are going to become even more important. Do you have a strong peer network? Do you have powerful mentors? Do you have a strong network of connections? I believe this is very helpful.

Host: What should ordinary people do now to elevate their AI tools to a new level?

Bill: The most important thing is to try various mainstream models, like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc., and let AI take on more agentic work. For instance, before participating in podcast interviews, I let AI predict what questions the other party would ask me; or while preparing for a TED talk, I use AI to simultaneously conduct research, prototype, and brainstorm ideas. Many people do not realize how much they can rely on AI; during my speech at NYU, I found that half of the questions students asked could be directly posed to ChatGPT. Now, for any information inquiry, asking AI directly is much easier than searching Wikipedia.

Host: How to find mentors and build a valuable peer network?

Bill: Regarding mentors, most people set their goals too high by directly seeking out those who are unlikely to pay attention to them. I recommend two strategies. First, create a list of potential mentors. Utilize free networking resources (podcasts, interviews, querying with AI) to research those you admire, just like fans building digital profiles of their idols. This not only boosts your confidence but also tests whether you are genuinely passionate about this field.

Additionally, seek out people slightly lower on the ladder to be true mentors. If they have never been asked to be a mentor, they'll be pleasantly surprised. Don't start by asking, "Can you be my mentor?" so seriously, but instead make specific small requests, such as, "I'm exploring these two paths; you must have considered them. Any advice?" Or you could simply create an AI project using personal corpus data to have a conversation with your virtual mentor.

Regarding peer networks, I recommend looking for 4 to 6 like-minded individuals who are at a similar stage in their career (preferably outside of your own organization) to establish a group on WhatsApp or Slack, etc. You can share ideas, expand learning horizons, and broaden networks together. When you've had a bad day at work or are uncertain whether the problems stem from the industry itself or your current company, this group can help you find clarity.

Host: In this day and age, how should parents educate their children? Are cramming classes still effective?

Bill: There is now a serious "resume competition" in North America, as parents start to stress about their children's college applications as early as sixth grade, scheduling them for chess, lacrosse, and even volunteering at animal protection associations. While it is good to educate children to learn perseverance, I am very concerned that by the time they finish college, they will be utterly exhausted. If they never have the time to stop and catch their breath to explore and discover what they really want to do, that would be disastrous. Now, universities even require majors to be declared early, robbing students of the chance to explore. I recommend that parents create as many exploration opportunities as possible for their children, exposing them to different things and helping them discover their true pure interests.

Host: For those doing jobs they dislike but are afraid to switch and change, what is one thing they can do immediately this week?

Bill: You can conduct scenario simulations of new paths in the digital world. Set a scene: "I plan to leave here in six months," and then use AI tools to help you rehearse.

For example, you can ask AI: "I want to switch to this field in six months; what should I do in my first week?" It will provide you with a plan. You don't have to follow exactly what AI says; you can modify it, but this scenario planning process can help you break free from the paralysis of inaction. You can run through this exercise for three different directions, enriching it with new data weekly. Once the details are filled in, it will no longer be an abstract concept, and you'll start to clearly see which path you are inclined towards.

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