The US fiscal impulse has been one of the most reliable leads for Bitcoin, tracking about 6 months ahead.

It is now negative year-over-year and set to deteriorate further, as the OBBBA spending (tax refunds, SALT cap increases, tip and overtime deductions, bonus depreciation) are frontloaded in the first half of 2026.

Post-pandemic, the fiscal impulse has been a key driver for risk assets. Its deterioration removes one of the few remaining macro tailwinds at a time when global liquidity offers little margin of safety and central bank easing breadth is already rolling over.

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