What to know : Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks after reports of a U.S.-drafted 15-point peace plan to end the Iran conflict, easing inflation pressures and lifting global risk assets. Bitcoin is holding above $70,000 and trading around $71,000 after a volatile week, while most major altcoins remain lower on a weekly basis despite modest daily gains. The proposed peace plan, which reportedly includes restrictions on Iran's nuclear ambitions, is the most concrete diplomatic move since the war began and is seen as the key catalyst for markets in the coming days.
There's a 15-point peace plan on the table and bitcoin is sitting at $71,000 like the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war might actually end.
Brent crude slid 4.7% to $99.55 on Wednesday, breaking below the $100 level that had held since mid-March, after Bloomberg reported the U.S. had drafted a 15-point plan to end the Iran conflict and delivered it to Tehran via Pakistan. Israel's Channel 12 reported separately that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire. Asian equities jumped 1.9%. The dollar weakened. U.S. and European futures pointed to further gains.
Bitcoin was trading at $71,019, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours but still down 6.4% on the week. The weekly loss reflects the whipsaw from last week's $75,000 high through the weekend's 48-hour ultimatum panic and Monday's two-headline liquidation cascade.
The daily move is quieter and more constructive, with bitcoin holding above $70,000 for a third consecutive day.
"Although the leading cryptocurrency did not immediately capitalize on the upward momentum and extend its gains, simply remaining at these high levels now suggests confidence among the bulls," FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in an email.
Ether (ETH) gained 1.7% to $2,164 but is down 9.2% on the week, the worst-performing major over seven days. XRP (XRP) added 0.2% to $1.42, down 8.5% weekly. Solana rose 2.5% to $91.69 but has lost 3.8% over the week. BNB slipped 0.5% to $638, down 6.8%. gained 1.7% to $0.094 but remains off 7.5% on the week. Tron (TRX) was the only major green on both timeframes, up 0.8% daily and 4.4% weekly.
The 15-point plan is the most concrete diplomatic development since the war began on February 28. Trump has been pushing talks publicly but the structure, participants, and terms have been unclear until now. The plan reportedly includes a prohibition on Iran obtaining nuclear weapons or enriching radioactive material, though full details remain undisclosed.
The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, with only a trickle of vessels transiting.
Brent falling below $100 eases the inflation headwinds that has been compressing risk assets for a month.
Every dollar off the oil price marginally improves the odds that the Fed holds rather than hikes, which keeps the liquidity environment from getting worse. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the S&P is still elevated, but the sensitivity has been asymmetric throughout the war.
Bitcoin is roughly flat since the war began but every major altcoin is down between 4% and 9% on the week. The market has spent four weeks absorbing headlines, liquidation cascades, and oil shocks, and the net result is a range that has neither broken higher nor collapsed lower.
Whether the 15-point plan leads to an actual ceasefire or becomes another headline that gets denied by Tehran within hours is the only question that matters this week.
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