Written by: Xiao Yanyan

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Trump hinted that Iran sent a "gift" as a sign of goodwill during negotiations he claims are aimed at ending a 25-day conflict that has disrupted global markets, even as he is simultaneously deploying more troops to the Middle East.

Trump did not elaborate on what this "extremely valuable" gift is, but confirmed it is related to the energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, a Thai vessel passed through this critical waterway earlier this Tuesday.

"We are negotiating," Trump told reporters at the White House, and said emissaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, along with Secretary of State Rubio and Vice President Vance are involved. However, Trump's optimistic attitude sharply contrasts with the Pentagon's action of sending more ground troops to the region.

As he stated on Monday, Trump reiterated that Iran has agreed on certain parameters of a potential agreement— the foremost condition being the U.S. insistence on preventing the Islamic Republic of Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This has long been a red line for the U.S. and was one of the stipulations agreed upon during the nuclear deal reached with Iran and other major powers under Obama, from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

"They are talking to us, and it makes sense. It all starts from them not being able to have nuclear weapons," Trump said on Tuesday. "No one knows who to talk to, but we are actually talking to the right people, they really want to reach an agreement, you have no idea how much they want to reach an agreement."

U.S. Plans One-Month Ceasefire, 15-Point Proposal for Ending Iran Conflict Exposed

This Tuesday, there remained widespread uncertainty regarding who is involved in the negotiations, the structure of the talks, and any potential agreement framework. Axios cited two sources familiar with the discussions, stating that the U.S. is discussing with a group of regional mediators the possibility of high-level talks with Iran as early as Thursday, but is awaiting a response from Tehran.

The New York Times reported that the U.S. has presented Iran with a 15-point proposal to end the war. The plan was conveyed by Pakistani authorities. The New York Times quoted two unnamed officials as saying that it is unclear who within the Iranian leadership received this proposal and their response.

Reportedly, among the 15 conditions in the proposed plan to end the conflict, the U.S. mainly demands include: dismantling current nuclear capabilities, a commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, banning uranium enrichment on its territory, surrendering about 60% of high-enriched uranium stocks, dismantling nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) comprehensive verification, etc. At the same time, the U.S. also demands Iran stop supporting armed regional allies, forbidding funding, command, and weapons support, and limiting the scale and range of its ballistic missile program for defense purposes while ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open. In exchange, Iran could receive the lifting of international sanctions, U.S. support for its civilian nuclear program, and cancellation of the "snapback sanctions" mechanism.

Additionally, according to Israel's Channel 12, the U.S. may soon announce a one-month ceasefire regarding the Iran war, a measure being pushed by U.S. Middle East envoy Witkoff and Kushner to facilitate further negotiations on the aforementioned terms.

Brent crude futures settled above $104 a barrel on Tuesday, recovering some of Monday's 11% drop, amid signs that the U.S. is expanding its military presence in the Middle East. Several Gulf countries have also signaled their willingness to join U.S. and Israeli military actions if Iran attacks their critical infrastructure.

One indication of market volatility is that in U.S. bonds, as Channel 12 reported that the U.S. is seeking a one-month ceasefire to negotiate with Iran, U.S. bonds retracted some of their losses near the end of the trading day on Tuesday.

Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan indicated that this news could mean a reduction in geopolitical risks in the short term. The energy market's response aligns with a trend of some war risk premium being removed. The drop in oil prices reflects that the energy market remains highly sensitive to any signs that regional tensions may cool (even if temporarily). While such a ceasefire may not necessarily resolve the broader conflict, it suggests a likely reduction in hostile activities in the short term, thereby lowering the risk of disruptions to regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

For traders, the key is that oil prices have been carrying a significant risk premium related to concerns over a broader escalation of the situation. Any hint that the conflict may formally pause could prompt the market to quickly reprice, especially in the context of positions leaning towards supply risk concerns. This situation seems to be the case, although the sustainability of this trend may depend on whether there is official confirmation of the report and whether the proposed ceasefire mechanism can gain clear support from relevant parties.

At present, this news points to an ongoing process rather than a completed agreement. Therefore, the market will continue to closely monitor subsequent developments, including official statements, comments from U.S. officials, and any responses from the other party.

Troop Increases and Peace Talks Happening Simultaneously

Despite Trump's statement on Monday that he is avoiding strikes on Iranian energy facilities and has given Iran five days to reach an agreement, U.S. Marines are on their way to the region, raising the possibility of ground operations. A knowledgeable source revealed on Tuesday that the U.S. government has ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy about 2,000 soldiers to the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal previously reported on this operation.

The U.S. Central Command and the Office of the Secretary of Defense referred questions regarding potential troop movements to the White House.

"All announcements about troop deployments will come from the War Department," White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated in a statement. "As we said, President Trump always has control over all military options."

Neither Iran nor Israel has shown signs of de-escalation in the conflict. Iran has diverted a container ship from the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel continues to carry out strikes against Iran, with Defense Minister Israel Katz stating that military operations will continue "at full force."

Meanwhile, global leaders are vying for influence.

According to sources, Trump has discussed the conflict with Pakistan army chief Asim Munir. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on social media this Tuesday that Pakistan would "honorably" mediate the negotiations—Trump subsequently shared the post on his account but did not clarify whether he would accept the offer.

Indian Prime Minister Modi stated that he advocated for peace during a phone call with Trump, discussing the Strait of Hormuz— a key passage for India's energy imports.

The New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing individuals who received briefings from U.S. officials regarding the call, that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been urging Trump to continue the war to help reshape the region. The White House declined to comment on the president's private discussions.

An Israeli official stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed his close associate Ron Dermer to closely monitor any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to ensure Israeli interests are maintained.

In other regions of the Middle East, U.S. allies including Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken a tougher stance against Tehran due to Iran's ongoing attacks on their territory. According to informed sources, Saudi Arabia has informed the U.S. that it is prepared to retaliate against Iran if its domestic electricity and water facilities are attacked.

The contradictory statements from Iranian officials and their official media have further deepened the confusion surrounding the state of negotiations.

Iran's state news agency IRNA quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei as saying that Tehran has received a U.S. request to negotiate the end of the war through mediators. "Necessary warnings have been issued regarding any aggression against Iran's critical infrastructure," Baghaei said.

Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi has recently spoken with the foreign ministers of Turkey, Oman, Pakistan, Egypt, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and South Korea.

However, the Iranian Deputy Parliament Speaker ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Trump. Fars News Agency quoted Ali Nikzad as saying that Iran would not negotiate "with a liar, a person without dignity, humanity, and conscience."

Iran has appointed hardline veteran Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as the country's top national security leader, succeeding Ali Larijani, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last week. Zolghadr is a military figure with limited diplomatic experience.

Early signs indicate that negotiations may be exceptionally difficult, with no guarantee that both sides can reach an agreement to end the war. Iran has previously insisted on the U.S. and Israel providing compensation and promising not to attack in the future—conditions that Trump and Netanyahu are unlikely to accept.

This conflict has resulted in over 4,350 deaths, with about three-quarters of the casualties in Iran and more than 1,000 others in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Iran-supported militant group Hezbollah.

Iran is accused of starting to charge tolls for commercial vessels passing through the Strait, which is another indication of Tehran's control over this critical global maritime energy route.

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