Although today's volatility of $BTC is not very large, it is indeed not a good thing for the real world. The controlled Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the controlled Red Sea by the Houthis have made oil transportation increasingly troublesome. Moreover, there has been no sign of Iran preparing to negotiate with the United States or the United States preparing to negotiate with Iran. Trump's statements are becoming increasingly hard to believe, resulting in a continued decline in his approval ratings.

Currently, the probabilities of recession and interest rate hikes in the United States are both rising. By today, it has been a full month. Initially, it was believed to be a replication of Venezuela, but by today I estimate that Trump is also feeling uncomfortable psychologically. The midterm elections are not far away, and not only are tariffs full of twists and turns, but the trust in the Federal Reserve chairman's rise is not easy either. Now, the United States is also facing rising inflation expectations.

The price of oil is expected to rise again next week, but we must know that this is still under the condition of the IEA releasing strategic reserve oil. Oil prices have already exceeded 100 dollars. Can the IEA release oil for another three weeks? If there is still war after the release, oil prices are expected to rise even more significantly.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate on the weekend continues to return to a low point, liquidity is poor, and low trading volume is normal. The expectations for the weekend are not high, as long as Trump doesn't cause any trouble, the biggest fear is Trump using the weekend to create chaos. However, in reality, the investor sentiment for $BTC remains relatively stable.

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