Trump’s overall job approval rating has weakened in recent weeks, falling to some of the lowest readings of his current term as the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and rising fuel prices tied to it weigh on sentiment. Polls published by realclearpolling.com indicate that recent survey data for the president is trending lower. This pattern appears across a wide range of polling sources, including Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, CBS News/Yougov, Rasmussen, Morning Consult, and others.

Across these surveys, a majority of respondents express disapproval of how the President is performing in office. Much of the approval decline is tied to the Middle East conflict, which has intensified gas prices across the United States. It cuts both ways, as the war has deepened the broader economic strain affecting nearly every country on earth. Beyond the polling data spanning a wide range of outlets, prediction market participants on Polymarket and Kalshi are wagering that Trump will be impeached before the 2028 election.

For example, based on current data for the “Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?” market on Polymarket, traders presently assign a 70% probability to the “Yes” outcome. The market has recorded a clear rise in activity, with the perceived likelihood climbing by 18% in recent sessions. The market’s outcome hinges on defined political thresholds: it resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. House of Representatives approves at least one article of impeachment by a simple majority before Jan. 20, 2029, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time.

A similar wager is unfolding on Kalshi. The “Will Trump be impeached?” market there reflects a range of probabilities tied to different deadlines, measuring the chances of impeachment by the House of Representatives. As of March 2026, near-term expectations remain limited, with just a 3% likelihood before June 2026 and 13% before 2027; however, the outlook rises sharply to 74% for the window ending Jan. 1, 2028.

To resolve as “Yes,” the outcome must be formally confirmed through the Library of Congress. The market, which launched in late 2025, remains open until an impeachment occurs, and it has drawn notably greater participation, with $1.91 million in recorded volume as of today. Moreover, based on the “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” market hosted on Polymarket, traders currently favor a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome, assigning it 50% odds.

The polling data and prediction market activity point in the same direction. Trump’s approval is slipping, fuel costs are rising, and a meaningful share of market participants are placing real money on impeachment before the term closes. Whether those bets pay off depends on decisions that haven’t been made yet. For now, the numbers reflect where public sentiment stands, and they aren’t favorable to the White House.

• Why is Trump’s approval rating dropping in March 2026? Polls from Reuters/Ipsos, CBS News/YouGov, Rasmussen, and others show Trump’s approval falling to term lows, driven largely by rising gas prices and the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
• What are the current Trump impeachment odds on Polymarket? Polymarket traders currently assign a 70% probability to Trump being impeached before his term ends, a figure that has climbed 18% in recent sessions.
• How much money has been wagered on Trump impeachment markets? The Kalshi impeachment market has recorded $1.91 million in total volume as of March 2026, reflecting a significant increase in trader participation since the market launched in late 2025.
• What do prediction markets say about the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket’s Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms market currently favors a Democratic Sweep as the most likely outcome, with traders assigning it 50% odds.

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