Trading Direction Strategy Suggestions
Idea: Look bullish in line with the trend, but do not blindly chase highs.
Entry/Position Increase Points
Entry on Pullback: The ideal short-term long position occurs when the price retests the 67400 - 67500 range and does not fall below it.
Breakout to Chase Long: If it can break through 68500 with volume, one may chase up to around 69800 .
Take Profit Point: First target 68800, second target 69800
Stop Loss Point: Strictly set below 66700. Falling below here means the short-term reversal signal is invalidated.
Key Levels
Strong Resistance: 68800 (recent high point suppression) 70000 (psychological barrier)
Strong Support: 67400 (short-term support) 66700 (MA120 support line)
News Summary
Quarter-End/Month-End Reallocation Pressure: Today is the last day of March and the first quarter, institutions and funds face settlement and weight adjustments. Historically, quarter-end often comes with intense volatility, and some profit-taking may occur.
Spot ETF Fund Flow Warms Up: After a continuous net outflow last week, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a slight net inflow over the past 48 hours, indicating strong institutional support below 66000.
Large On-chain Holder Dynamics: Data shows significant accumulation signs around 67000, with some whale addresses beginning to withdraw funds from exchanges, suggesting short-term selling pressure is decreasing.
Macro Data Outlook: The market is holding its breath for this weekend's non-farm payroll data, as well as the halving expectations in mid-April. Prior to major data releases, short-term long and short battles will lean more towards technical analysis.
Technical Analysis
Current Price: Approximately 67900
Pattern Analysis
The chart shows that after retesting the 65000 support, a strong rebound started, reaching a peak of 68408. Currently, it is in a high position correction phase after the surge. The 30-minute chart displays a clear “ascending flag” or high position consolidation.
Moving Averages
MA120 (66700) has transformed from resistance to strong support.
The short-term moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, with the price operating above MA5, indicating that short-term bulls are still in control.
MACD: Above the zero line, although the red bars have slightly shortened, a dead cross has not occurred, showing that upward momentum is still present, just at a slower pace.
RSI: Currently in the mid-high position and has not entered the overbought zone, implying there is still room to rise.
Risk Warning
Major Risk Point - “Quarter-End Inducement”: Be cautious of the main force intentionally raising prices to attract retail investors before the close, followed by a “harvest” washout in early April.
Refuse to hold positions; if the price breaks down with volume below 66,500, decisively set a stop loss to prevent the market from further declining to the 64000 support area.
Lock in profits; currently holding long positions near 65000, it is recommended to close half near 68500, setting a “trailing break-even loss” for the remainder.
“Trading is not a technical issue, it is a human issue.” The current market is enticing, but it is also in a sensitive high position, maintain your “baseline” and do not fight against the market.
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