Polymarket @Polymarket's recent operations have become increasingly abstract.
First, there are widespread high fees, which directly lead to two fatal impacts:
1. The majority of market makers and automated strategies see significant reductions in profits, even leading to losses, which will directly cause a drastic decrease in trading volume.
2. If the platform charges 2-N points in fees, it means that Polymarket's pricing will not be as precise as before and will have a significant bias, requiring market makers to have more margin to protect profits. This is also why the political market temporarily does not charge fees; if the political market also starts charging, then the event predictions that Polymarket claims are more accurate than traditional media will lose their meaning.
Today it was mentioned again that they plan to replace USDC.E, indicating a complete restructuring of the underlying system. I believe this matter is not very significant. Even with the current TVL of 1 billion dollars, putting all of it into Circle to earn interest would only yield about 50 million in profit per year, which is not a lot for Poly. However, this means that you have to take full responsibility for the underlying funds, and the associated safety costs and risks may far exceed the interest income.
At the same time, this means all API trading users will have to modify their code to adapt to the new settlement token, and I estimate that probability suggests there will be other unforeseen impacts. Many API traders were already not making money after fees were introduced, and having to go through this will likely cause many to stop participating altogether.
Since they are not short on money or popularity, why not quickly launch a token, get it listed, and earn big in the secondary market, while also giving early users an airdrop to benefit? @Polymarket
Now, there seems to be little expectation regarding Poly's airdrops; the story of the young dragon slayer turning into an evil dragon seems to be unfolding again...
#Polymarket
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