1. Polymarket "US-Iran Ceasefire" Probability Drops to 37%

Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of a "US-Iran ceasefire before May 15" on Polymarket has dropped to 37%, a 45% decline in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of the "When will the US-Iran ceasefire" event contract has exceeded $107 million. US Vice President Pence reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday (8 AM Wednesday UTC+8), and Trump set Tuesday evening Eastern Time as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise, Iran's energy infrastructure may face the risk of devastating strikes.   -Original

2. Morgan Stanley Spot Bitcoin ETF to Trade Tomorrow

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF will officially start trading tomorrow.   -Original

3. Spot Gold Breaks $4700/Ounce, Up 1.11%

4. Federal Reserve's Goolsbee Concerned About Inflation from Iranian Conflict

On April 8, Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that the war with Iran could slow economic growth and raise inflation rates, putting the Federal Reserve in a tricky situation. He is concerned that the impending oil crisis could lead to price increases in the form of stagflation and pointed out that the impact has already hit before the effects have subsided.   -Original

5. South Korea Requires Exchanges to Reconcile Assets Every 5 Minutes

The South Korean Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced that due to recent incidents exposing internal control loopholes at Bithumb, it requires domestic crypto exchanges to reconcile their ledgers with actual assets every 5 minutes and to establish an automated reconciliation system. It set standards for suspending trades upon significant discrepancies and emphasized enhanced reviews of high-risk processes and account management. The frequency of external audits has been adjusted to monthly, with the disclosure scope expanded to detailed asset balances. Related rules are expected to be revised by April 2026.   -Original

6. US Military Strikes on Iranian Targets Lead to Rise in Oil Prices

7. Iranian Foreign Minister Announces Strait of Hormuz Open for Two Weeks

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi officially announced that the Strait of Hormuz will allow safe passage for two weeks.   -Original

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