Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

War of 40 Days Reaches Turning Point

From "a whole civilization will die tonight" to "I agree to pause bombings," Trump took less than 12 hours.

On Tuesday evening, about 90 minutes before the 8 PM ultimatum, Trump announced on Truth Social that based on the requests of Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Army Chief Munir, he agreed to pause bombings in Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran "fully, immediately, and safely opens the Hormuz Strait."

Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi then confirmed acceptance, announcing that maritime traffic would be safely allowed under the coordination of Iran's armed forces for two weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council also issued a statement confirming the ceasefire, but added a cold postscript: "This does not mean the end of the war. Our hands are still on the trigger, and the slightest mistake by the enemy will be met with full retaliation."

Israel agreed to join the ceasefire. Pakistan invited delegations from both sides to Islamabad for negotiations before Friday. Vice President Wince may lead the U.S. delegation. Trump revealed that Iran proposed a 10-point plan, which he called "a feasible basis for negotiation."

This war, which began on February 28, welcomed its first genuine ceasefire window on the 40th day.

However, the fragility of the ceasefire cannot be overlooked. Within minutes of the ceasefire taking effect, Iran still launched missiles towards Israel and Gulf countries. Israel and the UAE sounded air defense alarms early Wednesday morning. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard holds all military decision-making power throughout the war, and whether frontline commanders will comply with the political leadership's ceasefire commitment remains a big question mark.

U.S. Stocks: From "Civilization Destruction" to Five Straight Gains, Post-Market Futures Soar

Tuesday's daytime U.S. stock market action can be summarized in one sentence: partying at the gates of hell.

Trump's "civilization destruction" remarks directly plunged the three major indices into a deep pit. The Dow fell more than 1% during the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approached a nearly 1% drop. In the afternoon, the U.S. airstrikes on Hark Island (over 50 military targets, deliberately avoiding oil facilities) sent WTI soaring to $115.8, a new high since 2008, exacerbating panic.

In the last 30 minutes, the news of Pakistan's delay plan triggered short-covering. The S&P 500 pulled back from -0.3% during the day to close up 0.08% at 6,616.85, achieving five straight gains. The Nasdaq rose 0.10% to 22,017.85. The Dow failed to turn positive, falling 85 points (-0.18%) to 46,584.46. The VIX surged 11.5% to 26.95.

Sector performance was extremely divided. Apple plummeted 4% (issues with the foldable iPhone engineering tests), and Tesla dropped 3%. United Health surged 8% (Medicare Advantage payment increase), Broadcom rose 4.5% (signing a long-term TPU agreement with Alphabet), and Intel climbed 3% (reportedly partnering with xAI for chip development).

But the real action came after the close. The moment the ceasefire news broke, the futures market exploded: S&P 500 futures surged over 1.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures skyrocketed 1.8%, and Dow futures increased by 725 points. If this increase is realized at Wednesday's opening, the S&P 500 will recover all its losses since April.

Oil Prices: From $116 to $103, a $13 Drop Overnight

The impact of the ceasefire on oil prices was immediate and violent.

By the close on Tuesday, WTI was at $112.95 (+0.5%), having touched $115.8 during the day—its highest level since April 2008. Dated Brent spot prices surged above $144 that day, setting a historical record.

After the ceasefire news broke, WTI plummeted by about 8% to around $103. A near $13/barrel drop overnight.

The logic of the crash is clear: ceasefire → Iran opens the Strait → navigation in Hormuz resumes → Middle Eastern oil-producing countries slowly restore the 7.5 million barrels per day of capacity that had been shut down → supply gap narrows → war premium recedes.

However, traders will not overlook several key "buts":

Iran's statement was "safe passage under military coordination," not unconditional free navigation. There is significant operational space in between. The EIA's recent forecast warned that Middle Eastern capacity "will not return to near pre-conflict levels until the end of 2026." The structural damage to the global refining and shipping systems from the six-week war will take months to repair. War insurance rates will not return to zero overnight.

JPMorgan previously warned that if the Strait remains closed until mid-May, Brent may soar to $150. The ceasefire has temporarily suppressed this tail risk. However, Goldman Sachs's forecast for the average Brent price in 2026 still stands at $85—well above the $61 at the beginning of the year.

$103 may just be the first stop; the road to $80 will not be completed overnight.

Gold: Closed at $4,737, More Complex Post-War Logic

Gold prices closed up 1.12% at $4,737/ounce on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven demand due to the airstrikes on Hark Island and the "civilization destruction" remarks.

After the ceasefire, gold faces a more complex equation. The theoretical retreat of the war premium would be bearish for gold, but if the ceasefire leads to a sharp drop in oil prices → easing inflation expectations → market re-pricing of potential interest rate cuts → real interest rates decline, gold may actually benefit.

In the short term, it is likely to fall first and then stabilize. Looking at the medium term, the bottom of $4,600-$4,700 has been repeatedly confirmed. What truly determines the direction is not the ceasefire itself, but the Federal Reserve's attitude after the ceasefire. If post-war oil price drops lead the Fed to reconsider the interest rate cut window, gold's next target is to return to $5,000. If inflation remains sticky—ISM's services price index just spiked to 70.7—rate hike expectations will suppress gold.

The structural buying by central banks is a bottom-line guarantee. The dollar's share in global reserves has fallen to its lowest since 1994 (about 40%), while gold's share has risen to its highest since 1991 (about 30%). A two-week ceasefire will not change this trend.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Soars to $72,738 Overnight, 48 Days of Fear Ended?

The ceasefire sparked the most intense rebound in the crypto market since the outbreak of war at the end of February.

According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin soared 4.9% to $72,738 in early Asian trading, reaching a three-week high since March 18. Ethereum surged 7.4% to $2,273. Short positions in the crypto market were liquidated for over $200 million within 24 hours.

Looking back at Tuesday during the day, BTC slightly fell by less than 1% to $69,065—almost immune to geopolitical shocks. After the ceasefire news broke, the spring that had been suppressed for 48 days released.

The quality of this rebound is much higher than previous short-covering rallies. Bitcoin futures open interest rose 5% over 24 hours to $49.53 billion, signaling new money entering the market. The previously unyielding resistance level of $71,500 was broken through.

A deeper narrative is forming: continued ceasefire → oil prices drop → inflation pressures ease → the Fed reopens the interest rate cut window → expectations of liquidity easing return. This logic chain is the core engine of the crypto bull market over the past 18 months. The war stalled this engine for 40 days, and now someone is turning the key.

Strategy recently bought $330 million in BTC from April 1 to April 5, holding about $58 billion. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $72,000, Strategy may record its best weekly performance this year.

The extreme fear cycle of 48 days may finally come to an end.

Today's Summary: Day 40 of War, Day 1 of Peace?

On April 8, the U.S.-Iran war experienced the most dramatic 24 hours—from "civilization destruction" to a two-week ceasefire:

U.S. Stocks: S&P up five straight days, closing up 0.08% at 6,616.85. Post-market futures soared: S&P +1.6%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +725 points.

Oil Prices: WTI plunged from $116 during the day to $103 after hours, evaporating $13 overnight. The Hormuz Strait will reopen under Iran's coordination.

Gold: Closed up 1.12% at $4,737. Short-term pressure post-war, but central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts provide support.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin surged to $72,738, a new three-week high, Ethereum skyrocketed 7.4%. The extreme fear cycle of 48 days may be ending.

Before 8 PM, it was a delay, not destruction.

But new questions immediately arise: Are two weeks enough?

The specific content of the 10-point plan has yet to be disclosed. Iran claims "the hand is still on the trigger." Missiles continue to be launched after the ceasefire. Israel expresses "doubt" about the sustainability of the ceasefire. No one knows whether the Revolutionary Guard's frontline commanders will truly lay down their weapons. The success or failure of the negotiations in Islamabad will be determined in the next two weeks—either this is the starting point for lasting peace or just a breather before the next round of escalation.

But at least for tonight, global markets have cast their votes: S&P futures up 1.6%, oil prices down 8%, Bitcoin up 5%.

40 days of fear are being replaced by a fragile hope.