Written by: Yue Xiaoyu

For a prediction platform, creating a new market is not difficult; the real challenge lies in where the liquidity comes from and how it is ultimately settled.

Liquidity determines whether this market can be played; without depth, users cannot participate smoothly.

Settlement determines whether the platform can be trusted, which is directly related to community consensus and long-term trust.

1. In prediction markets, unexpected and out-of-rule events will always occur.

This is both the biggest challenge and the most unique charm of it.

In other words, black swans are the norm in prediction markets.

Once a black swan appears, it will directly affect users' funds, leading to a concentrated outbreak of problems:

When the results contradict common sense, intuition, or even completely exceed preset rules, what should ordinary users do?

Currently, there is one core principle in the industry: pre-agreed settlement rules are the highest authority.

When settlement rules conflict with community consensus, rules take precedence.

Because the settlement rules are essentially a contract reached by everyone in advance, akin to law; arbitrary modification by the platform will instantly collapse the trust foundation of the entire platform.

Therefore, settlement rules cannot be modified at will.

2. However, this brings a new problem: rules are dead, the world is alive, and many things are constantly changing.

Unexpected events always occur, and the community often gets caught in disputes over rules, obsessing over trivial details;

Some even intentionally exploit loopholes in the rules, using wordplay to subvert common sense and consensus.

Numerous cases have already proven that endless nitpicking of rules will only lead the community into disputes and distrust of the platform.

The existing solution is to introduce community adjudication.

Community adjudication is very similar to a jury in the Anglo-American legal system.

No matter how rigorous the law is, it cannot cover all real-life scenarios; this is the significance of the jury's existence in English and American law:

To incorporate common sense, consensus, and human connections, making decisions closer to the real world, rather than strictly adhering to the text.

The optimistic oracle known as UMA, commonly used in prediction markets, allows people to propose market outcomes, assume it is correct, and then others can challenge it, with the final decision made by a vote from UMA token holders.

However, UMA also has its own issues, such as dominance by big players and governance attacks, failing to fully reflect community consensus.

3. So, how can community consensus truly be reflected?

A better solution is to adjudicate based on intent.

Prediction markets should proactively define answers when creating markets, including the reasons for their existence.

This is the Intent-First principle.

Each market must mandatorily fill out three non-modifiable parts upon creation:

• WHAT: An accurate description of the event (e.g., "Any part of the U.S. government will experience a shutdown before X month X day in 2026").
• WHY: The genuine purpose of the market's existence (e.g., "To inform federal employees/citizens in advance whether employment and services will be affected").
• LITERAL RULES: Detailed textual rules (as a fallback).

During adjudication, AI can be introduced to gather broader information, automatically capturing mainstream media, government websites, and real-time consensus from content communities.

This way, it can anchor external verifiable realities rather than just textual rules.

Only in this way can it truly reflect the genuine and widespread community consensus.

4. For prediction markets to become popular and widespread in the future, they must face one fact:

The vast majority of ordinary users will not read rules word for word like legal documents.

They participate in predictions based on common sense, intuition, and general consensus.

Only by maximizing the avoidance of rule loopholes and disputes over super rules, and avoiding meaningless rule battles, can prediction markets genuinely go further.

Creating markets with an intent-first approach, based on rules, and backed by community consensus, may be the feasible path for the long-term healthy development of prediction markets.

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