Techub News｜2026.04.08 Comprehensive In-Depth Research Report on the Crypto Market

In a rare context of extreme fear persisting for the 20th consecutive day in the market, on April 8, 2026, the crypto market witnessed the most dramatic single-day reversal of the current cycle. BTC forcefully broke through the key psychological level of $70,000 in the early hours, reaching nearly $72,000 at its peak, with a daily increase of 4.35%, closing at $71,609; ETH also strengthened, rising 5.99% to $2,234.52, and SOL increased by 5.91%, with mainstream assets collectively rebounding. The total crypto market capitalization rebounded to $2.520 trillion, a 24-hour increase of 3.57%. The Fear and Greed Index rose sharply from 11 to 17. Although still in the extreme fear zone, this marked the largest single-day improvement in nearly three weeks, creating a strong resonance with the price breakout. This rise was driven by a combination of short-squeeze and cooling macro risks, but structurally there are significant hidden dangers. The upcoming release of the March FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve will be a core variable determining the short-term trend.

From a market structure perspective, the most prominent feature of this rebound is derivatives dominance and spot absence. The total liquidation amount across the market reached $600.87 million in 24 hours, soaring 150.64% from the previous day, with short liquidations totaling $431 million, accounting for as much as 71.7%, marking the largest scale of short-squeeze in nearly 30 days. BTC’s breakout above $70,000 triggered concentrated stop-loss orders, forcing a large number of shorts to cover, resulting in a rapid short-term trend of "bulls actively pushing up + bears passively covering." Meanwhile, funding rates experienced a sharp reversal, with BTC's OI-weighted funding rate shifting from -0.0020% to +0.0045%, and ETH rising from -0.0052% to +0.0052%, with several exchanges reaching the upper limit of +0.01%, indicating a rapid warming of bullish sentiment but also embedding risks of overheating in the short term. The total open interest in the market rose to $11.227 billion, growing 6.91% in 24 hours, with funding leverage becoming active again.

ETF Fund Flows Contradicting the Strong Market

On April 7, there was a net outflow of $141.94 million from BTC ETFs, including a $47.85 million outflow from FBTC and a $41.89 million outflow from GBTC. Despite the significant price increase, institutional spot funds still showed signs of withdrawal. Historical data indicates that derivative-driven trends lacking ETF funding support typically have weak sustainability. Whether there can be a positive inflow in the future is a core indicator for assessing the continuity of the trend. Currently, the total management scale of BTC ETFs stands at $89.63 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $56.29 billion. The total size of ETH ETFs is $12.22 billion, with funds remaining flat yesterday. The divergence between ETF funds and prices is the most concerning structural contradiction in the current market.

On-Chain and Whale Signals Show Mixed Bullish and Bearish Trends

At the beginning of April, 42,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges, the highest level since January, representing potential selling pressure; however, the Strategy agency continued to increase holdings, buying 4,871 BTC valued at $330 million from April 1 to April 5, with current total holdings around 767,000 BTC, equivalent to a market value of $53.3 billion, indicating that leading institutions maintain long-term beliefs. The network activity for BTC showed marked improvement alongside the price recovery, with 24-hour active addresses rising to 605,298, significantly up from the previous range of 400,000 to 450,000, with transaction volume around 520,600 trades, as the price increase spurred on-chain participation to warm up. The total network hash rate is about 966 EH/s, which is down 33% from the historical peak, with mining difficulty at 138.97T, and the next adjustment expected on April 17. Overall, on-chain data presents a recovery pattern of “price leading, on-chain following.”

From a technical perspective, BTC has completed a critical structural transition, with $70,000 shifting from strong resistance to the first support level. If it can hold this position after the FOMC minutes, the next resistance will point to the 50-day EMA at $72,160, beyond which lies the historically dense trading area of $73,000 to $75,000. The secondary support level is located in the previous consolidation area of $68,000 to $68,500; if effectively broken, the rebound structure will be damaged. ETH shows relatively stronger performance, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate rising from 0.0307 to 0.0312, support located at $2,150 to $2,170, and resistance at $2,260 to $2,300. Following a breakout, it might challenge the previous high of $2,400. Currently, the short-term market favors bulls, but trend confirmation requires waiting for risk events to materialize.

DeFi and Liquidity Show Marginal Improvements

DEX 24-hour trading volume reached $6.12 billion, increasing 23.4% from yesterday. Uniswap V3 and V4 remain at the forefront, with market trading activity rebounding. The supply of stablecoins is expanding, with USDC showing a net issuance of $286.54 million in 24 hours and USDS increasing by $316.52 million, as on-chain liquidity continues to be replenished. In terms of public chain TVL, Ethereum leads significantly at $59.74 billion, with Solana ranking fourth at $4.47 billion. With the price increase, the locked value across all chains is also recovering. Lending and staking yields remain stable, with ETH staking APY at 2.40% to 2.74%, and stablecoin financial products yielding up to about 4.38%, with no significant changes in the overall yield structure.

Macroeconomic Factors Face Key Tests Today

The Federal Reserve's March FOMC minutes will be released at 14:00 Eastern Time (April 9, 2:00 AM Beijing Time). The March meeting was "hawkish and held steady," raising the inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.7%, with the dot plot suggesting only one interest rate cut for the entire year. Historical data shows that 75% of the days when minutes are released have a negative impact on the crypto market, with the sell-the-news effect being significant. In addition, Trump stated that Iran's negotiating stance has become more rational, leading to a cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil retreating from high levels, improving overall sentiment in risk assets. However, the crypto market will still prioritize trading on signals from the Federal Reserve’s policies.

In summary, based on a multidimensional signal assessment, today the market receives an overall score of 5.8/10, neutral with a bullish bias, but with amplified risks of bidirectional volatility. Price breakouts, funding reversals, on-chain warming, and stablecoin expansions indicate bullish trends; meanwhile, ETF outflows, large BTC inflows into exchanges, and risks from the FOMC minutes point to bearish indicators. For a bullish case to be valid, three major conditions must be met: the minutes must be neutral/dovish, BTC must hold above $70,000, and ETF funds must shift to net inflows; if the minutes are hawkish combined with continued ETF outflows, the market is highly likely to retrace and test support at $68,000.

Today’s Market Core Conclusion: BTC breaking through $70,000 results from a combination of short squeezes and emotional repairs, providing a strong short-term structure, but not a signal for a trend reversal. The Fed minutes will act as a watershed; aggressive traders should observe and wait for signals to materialize, while conservative investors regard $70,000 and $68,000 as trend boundaries. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction time window from April 9 to 11, which will likely yield directional choices.

Disclaimer: This report is generated by Techub News AI research systems based on public data, solely for informational reference and research communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice, investment invitation, or trading guidance. The volatility of crypto assets is immense, and investors should make independent decisions and bear risks themselves.

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