The upcoming market is what I estimate many friends are most concerned about. There is at least a 2-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, and it is highly likely that the ceasefire will be extended after 2 weeks. After all, the probability of reaching a complete agreement in 2 weeks is low, but continuing the fighting does not align with the interests of either the United States or Iran, especially since both Iran and the United States still have unresolved issues.

Now, blindly going long on $BTC may not be the right approach. The principle behind Bitcoin's rise is still similar to the post-war rebound of the U.S. stock market. Since February, BTC has been fluctuating between $66,000 and $72,000. At that time, there was no war between the United States and Iran; it was mainly because institutions did not have enough cash flow. Although liquidity has improved somewhat now, the most critical factor still remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

This aspect has never changed. Previously, there was concern that excessive fighting would lead to a rise in oil prices, which would in turn cause inflation to rise and trigger caution from the Federal Reserve. After the war, the focus will return to tariffs, and Waller is still hanging in the balance.

My personal view is to continue shorting WTI, but approaching Bitcoin with caution is still necessary. My target remains BTC below $65,000. For WTI, first look at $90, and then reassess the situation.

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