1 News: Countdown to Halving and Macro Strategies

• Core Events:

  • Halving Expectations (Double-Edged Sword): Only about 10 days remain until the halving in 2026. Historical patterns show that there is often severe deleveraging before a halving, aimed at clearing high leveraged long positions.

  • ETF Capital Flow (Bullish): BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs continue to see net inflows, offsetting some of the outflow pressure from Grayscale. The institutional holding cost line is currently in the 68,000-70,000 range, forming a strong psychological defense line.

  • Macro Dynamics (Bullish Bias): Although PPI data shows inflation remains sticky, the market has largely digested the expectation of delayed rate cuts, with US stocks performing steadily and not yet withdrawing liquidity from the crypto market.

• Impact Summary: The market is at a balance point of "extreme optimism" and "panic vigilance." The bullish trend remains unchanged, but upward momentum in the short term requires greater volume support.

2. Technical Analysis: Wide Fluctuations on the 30-Minute Level, Moving Averages Clustered

• Current Price: About 72168

• Moving Average System (MA):

  • MA(120) (Green Line): Currently at 71353. This is the "lifeline" for the short term; as long as the closing price does not break this level, the upward pattern is secure.

  • MA(24)/MA(52): The price is currently oscillating around these two short-term moving averages, indicating the market is in a sideways consolidation phase, lacking clear unilateral breakout power.

• Indicator Analysis:

  • Alligator Indicator: The three lines are mostly flat and clustered (around 72000), indicating the market is entering a "dormant period," and a turning point is imminent.

  • TD Sequential: After a high signal appeared near 73146, there has been a pullback, and the market is currently in the mid-stage of adjustment.

• Key Levels:

  • Resistance Levels: 73146 (previous high pressure), 74500 (historical extreme).

  • Support Levels: 71353 (moving average support), 70000 (strong integer support).

3. Operational Direction: Range Ambush, Control Transition Risks

• Position Suggestions:

  • If you are out of position: Do not blindly chase upwards above 72000. It is recommended to place orders in batches in the 71000 - 71500 range.

  • If holding high leveraged long positions: It is suggested to move the stop-loss protection to 70800. If there is a rebound to around 72800, consider taking profit on half.

  • If holding short positions: Extremely high risk. The current trend is still bullish; unless it’s a very short-term entry and exit, it is suggested to stop-loss once it stabilizes above 73200.

• Position Management (in conjunction with your coordination work):

  • It is recommended to use low leverage primarily to avoid extreme liquidation (sudden spikes) on the first trade after switching venues or depositing.

  • Stop-loss reference: 70500; take profit targets: 74000 / 75500.

4. Risk Alerts and Response Plans

• Risk Point One: Spike Risk Large accounts may rapidly drive prices down to around 69000 before the halving, clearing leveraged long positions.

  • Response: Strictly prohibit heavy position orders, and try to enter the market when it retests the middle track.

• Risk Point Two: Delay in Switching Venues. Since you are responsible for guiding users in switching venues, you need to remind users that network congestion may lead to delays in deposits or opening positions during significant market fluctuations.

  • Response: Plan ahead, and try to complete asset migration during the consolidation phase (like now), rather than during market explosions.

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