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Kalshi's Eight-Year Entrepreneurship History: A Boxer in a Suit on the Ring
WLFI plans to submit a proposal to unlock early tokens next week, responding to lending concerns that there is no liquidation risk ( Review of Lending Concerns );
Gold Returns to $4,800, Where is the Top This Year?
Prediction markets indicate that prices may drop below $4,200 before June, and may exceed $6,000 within the year; institutional views suggest that gold will still reach new highs, with prices around $5,200 by the end of June.
A rare phenomenon has occurred in the crude oil perpetual contracts of WTIOIL-USDC on Trade.xyz: the annualized funding rate remains stable between -300% and -400%. This means that any trader willing to go long at this moment can receive a profit from the short side equivalent to 1% of their principal every day. The market doesn’t give away money for no reason. Three common strategies are as follows: shorting Trade.xyz's crude oil contract at current prices while going long on a distant month contract at CME; shorting a distant month futures contract while going long on xyz's near-month contract and closing the position before the roll-over; shorting the funding rate of the xyz contract on Boros before the roll-over starts. Bitwise: Institutions see the current time as a good entry opportunity, with Bitcoin possibly hitting $95,000 by the end of the year; Caixin: Polymarket using USDC for settlement and delivery poses significant legal risks for participants within China;
The transfer service, marketed as "low-cost API," remains undervalued: directly purchasing AI tokens using cryptocurrency (Crypto Tokens) is an underdeveloped structural entry; packaging and selling inexpensive models like Qwen, Kimi, GLM, Minimax to overseas users is a yet-to-be-mainstreamed "reverse output" path. However, several hurdles must be acknowledged before this business truly takes off—capital, resource channels, and legal compliance.
In a losing bear market, who is making a fortune silently?
First, there is the interest margin, and second, the trading tax (transaction fees). Firstly, the interest margin essentially acts as a "funding intermediary," where the core logic is to absorb funds at relatively low costs while deploying them at relatively high returns, gradually accumulating the difference between returns and costs over time—this type of business's profit depends on the scale and duration of the fund deposited; the larger the scale and the longer the duration, the greater the profit. Secondly, the trading tax is easier to understand; as long as there are trading-related activities (including token creation), the business can “tax” in the form of transaction fees during a single activity—this type of business's profit is dependent on the trade size and frequency of each activity, with larger scales and higher frequencies yielding greater profits. The first batch of stablecoin licenses has been granted to HSBC and Standard Chartered, with stablecoins expected to be launched as early as mid-year;
Trump's Trading Manual: We Are Now at Step Nine
According to the Trump trading manual, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately concludes with a narrative of "extreme pressure for concessions."
This development's potential impact on the market cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter notes that Step Ten—i.e., market violence repricing following the formal announcement of the agreement—will arrive within the coming weeks. At that point, investors who have been in defensive positions will face pressure to close positions quickly, and the stock market may see a sudden surge, while oil prices could rapidly fall with the establishment of expectations for the reopening of shipping channels.
Predictive markets are embroiled in controversy: are you trading facts or rules?
Recently, predictive markets have seen two highly controversial events. Polymarket: The US rescue of US military pilots inside Iran has been determined to be a US invasion of Iran. Predict.fun: The issuance of stablecoins by Polymarket has been determined to be a coin issuance. Some high-probability events appear to be “wealth management boards,” but they may not be devoid of risks; they could even be potential “money-losing boards.” Many reversals occur precisely in these overlooked details. Instead of blindly betting, paying more attention to the rules is more useful than complaining after losing money.
Anthropic has created the strongest AI model ever, but is hesitant to release it...
Anthropic, the AI development company behind Claude, has officially announced a new initiative called "Project Glasswing," which will advance in collaboration with major companies such as Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorgan Chase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Palo Alto Networks. Mythos, the next-generation AI model being developed by Anthropic, is the first model in human history to exceed a total parameter count of ten trillion (in contrast, current mainstream models have parameter counts in the range of hundreds of billions to a trillion level), with a staggering training cost of $10 billion, achieving significantly higher scores in software coding, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity tests. The company is even reluctant to publish the model directly to prevent its malicious use by hacker groups and plans to let major companies test it through the "Glasswing" initiative to identify and fix potential vulnerabilities in advance.
Not bombing oil fields, just bombing K-lines: Trump's threat economics
Instead of pressuring Iran to concede with deadlines, Trump seems more focused on setting the rhythm for international news cycles and global energy markets with deadlines. Trump often recycles a four-step dance: extreme threats, critical withdrawals, negotiation openings, and ritual climaxes. Each step in between is treated as an independent event by the media and markets, with pricing for each step being reset by the subsequent one.
20% shortfall, 100% collapse: The True Logic of the Energy Crisis
The issue is not whether oil is already insufficient, but once enough people begin to believe it might not be enough, the system will preemptively enter contraction and revaluation. Strategic reserves can only extend the time window; they cannot provide answers; and this window is rapidly closing. Late April will become a critical node. At that time, the market will have to face not "if it happens," but "when it is confirmed." Over 25 years old, it is no longer suitable to play meme coins. Meme has become a global competition for capturing popularity. The top players in this game are achieving levels closer to that of eSports players. Even real eSports players have joined this game. The difficulty of standing out and winning prizes in this game is now far beyond our imaginations. Pump.fun has already become the world's largest 24-hour online eSports platform. Solana launches Agent Skills, supporting AI agents in on-chain interactions; SEC Chairman: The crypto safe haven proposal has been submitted for White House review, allowing crypto projects to raise funds without immediate registration; Polymarket plans to comprehensively upgrade its trading engine and launch native stablecoin Polymarket USD ( Interpretation ); SpaceX plans to publicly disclose its initial public offering prospectus by the end of May;
The market is waiting for the war to end, but oil prices are pricing for a prolonged battle
As the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, the global crude oil supply system is forced to restructure—Asian buyers are massively turning to US oil, with WTI surpassing Brent, marking a structural change in pricing mechanisms and trade flows. The short-term price gap can be explained by contracts, but at a deeper level is the question of “who can still supply?” The current market's key misjudgment is not the price but the timing. The futures curve still implies one premise: the conflict will end in the short term, and supply will recover. But a more likely path is a long-term war of attrition. This means that the high position of oil prices is no longer just a stage shock, but will evolve into a more durable structural state, possibly moving the range up to $120–150. In this framework, crude oil is no longer just a commodity; it becomes an "upstream variable" for all assets. Its repricing will transmit layer by layer along interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and the credit market. The market has priced the occurrence of war but has yet to price the continuation of war.
Deep into the Tiger's Den: A Field Report from the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is not simply in a state of opening or closing. The reality is that hot wars and commercial diplomacy coexist: the US is conducting military operations, while its allies (such as France, Japan, Greece) are actively negotiating navigation rights with Iran. This is a typical symptom of a multipolar world. Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) has been selected as the designated financial agent for the US government to manage initial accounts; Robinhood will cooperate with BNY to serve as the broker and initial trustee of the "Trump account." ( Interpretation )
Q2 feels more like a quarter marked by high volatility, strong differentiation, and structural opportunities, with limited Beta gains at the index level, but Alpha has not disappeared; instead, it is expected to be more concentrated, picky, and reliant on understanding the evolution of main lines compared to Q1. AI Infrastructure 2.0, finance and cycles, aerospace and commercial space, the Seven Sisters and software repairs, precious metals and resource security. Fox News collaborates with Kalshi to introduce prediction markets to enhance reporting accuracy;
CZ's autobiography "Freedom of Money" is now live ( Highlights + Reflections ), details in the book sparked a clash between CZ and Star; a brief ceasefire between the US and Iran, BTC soars past $72,000, with concerns for the future; Iran intends to levy tolls on transiting oil tankers during the ceasefire period, charging $1 per barrel to be paid in Bitcoin ( Interpretation ); Russia announced a brief ceasefire;
Popular Interaction Collection | Cascade Private Beta is Live; KARPAK mints SBT (April 10)
Five and a Half Months of Bear Market: A Crypto Market Checkup
If the decline in total market capitalization is consistent with the relative decline from the peak and trough of 2018 compared to 2022, we may see the crypto total market cap drop by 62% from its peak to $1.67 trillion (a further drop of 30% from current levels). In the 2022 bear market, the downward trend accelerated five months after the stablecoin supply peaked and fell. We are currently in a similar phase of the cycle, as the stablecoin supply reached a local peak on March 16, which was about five months before entering the bear market, and further discussions will detail stablecoins. Finally, BTC's dominance typically declines during bear markets (it was 38% at the bottom of 2022). Currently, this ratio is 57%. We expect that in this bear market, its rate of decline will be more moderate.
Data Research: How Big is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?
Currently, Hyperliquid cannot really compare to CME in terms of absolute metrics like liquidity depth or slippage, with overall liquidity being less than 1%. Hyperliquid's distinct feature is that trading volumes for crude oil contracts significantly increase over weekend periods. This indicates that outside of individual speculative demands over the weekend, traders looking to gain crude oil exposure before Monday for hedging are also trading on Hyperliquid. This trend is becoming more evident, allowing Hyperliquid to attain commodity price discovery capabilities. However, concerning institutional investors, the high trading costs of the Hyperliquid platform remain the main obstacle to expansion in the commodity trading field compared to CME. If Hyperliquid does not quickly enhance its capability to handle institutional-level orders, it can only serve as a temporary trading venue for traditional traders on weekends, ultimately becoming a minor supplement in the landscape of traditional finance.
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