Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.43 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, or $1.43 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $31.77 billion, having increased by 0.28% in the last seven days, with USDT making up 57.96% of that.
CoinMarketCap lists that among the top 200 projects, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: BTC which rose 7.38% over seven days, ETH which rose by 5.89%, SOL which increased by 4.68%, SIREN which surged by 297.2%, and MON which rose 36.9%.
This week, net inflows into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF were $770 million; net inflows into the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF were $180 million.
Market Predictions (April 13 - April 19) :
The RSI index is at 52.88 (neutral, higher than last week), the fear and greed index is at 17 (extreme fear), and the altcoin season index is 34 (neutral).
BTC: $68,000-74,000 (the strength is maintained if it stays above $70,600; if it drops below $69,000, caution is needed).
ETH: $2,150-2,360 (having broken above $2,150, looking towards $2,360).
SOL: $80-90 ($80 is a bottoming area, most upward elasticity).
Major Risks:
Geopolitical Reversals. The impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, with this week's rebound mainly relying on the sentiment repair brought by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. If the situation reverses, the market will quickly turn back.
Weak On-chain Demand - Rebound Lacks Foundation. Although the BTC price rebounded above $72,000, on-chain data shows that this rally lacks genuine buying support, driven more by derivatives and short-term sentiment.
Structural Fragility - SOL Network Risk. Especially in an overall tightening liquidity environment, the unique risks of individual assets (like SOL) may trigger a chain reaction.
Understanding Now
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire ignites market, Bitcoin briefly surpasses $72,500
This week's biggest market catalyst came from geopolitical events. In the early hours of April 8, as Iran accepted the ceasefire proposal and the U.S. suspended military strikes, market sentiment quickly reversed. Bitcoin surged from around $68,000, briefly surpassing $72,500, reaching the highest point since March, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%.
Epic Short Squeeze: Over $600 million Liquidated Across the Network
The sudden rise led to a massive liquidation of short positions. Data from April 8 shows that the total liquidation across the network within 24 hours amounted to approximately $627 million, with shorts contributing a staggering $473 million. Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for about $276 million and $121 million of the liquidations, respectively.
Market Reversal Amid "Extreme Fear": Ending the Longest Fear Cycle
Just before the rebound, on April 6, the fear and greed index dropped to 12, signaling "extreme fear," having stayed in that state for over 17 days, setting a record for the longest since 2026. As the situation clarified, market sentiment significantly repaired to a neutral to optimistic bias before the weekend.
Institutional Funds Flow Back: ETF Sees Over $470 Million Inflow In One Day
As the market was extremely pessimistic on Monday (April 7), institutions began to position counter-cyclically. On that day, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $471.3 million, sweeping away the slump since early April. At the same time, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 45,000 BTC within 30 days, marking the highest monthly increase in nearly a year.
Negative Correlation Between Oil Prices and Coin Prices: The Hormuz Strait Becomes Key
This week, the negative correlation between oil prices and coin prices has become prominent. Due to the attack on Iran's largest crude oil export base on Khark Island, oil prices briefly surged to $116, suppressing risk assets. With the ceasefire agreement in place, oil prices fell back to near $100 expectations, directly triggering a rise in risk appetite in the crypto market.
Historic Moment for Hong Kong: First Batch of Stablecoin Licenses Officially Announced
On the afternoon of April 10, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority officially announced the first batch of stablecoin licenses. It is reported that the authority received 36 applications, with only 2-3 licenses issued in the first batch, and the regulatory standards are strict. Following this news, digital currency stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed collective fluctuations in the afternoon, with Guotai Junan International rising nearly 40% at one point.
Miners Under Pressure: Prices Below Production Costs, Hash Rate Declining
Despite the price rebound over the weekend, preliminary data from the week indicates that the estimated production cost for Bitcoin is around $77,000-$87,000, while the market price dipped to as low as $67,000, about 20% below cost. The overall network hash rate has dropped to about 870 EH/s, a 10% decrease from its peak, with mining difficulty being adjusted downwards for three consecutive times, putting inefficient miners at risk of shutting down.
U.S. Regulatory Expectations: The Clarity Act Becomes the New Focus
In addition to the ceasefire, another major storyline in market trading includes U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. Analysts point out that the continuation of the bull market depends on two catalysts: the ongoing ceasefire cooling oil prices and the anticipated passage of the U.S. Clarity Act in late April. The market predicts a 72% probability of the act passing.
The AI Sector Encounters a "Decentralization" Trust Crisis
While mainstream markets are rebounding, the leading AI sector player Bittensor (TAO) plummeted nearly 10%. This is attributed to the AI subnet project Covenant AI announcing its exit from the network, accusing co-founder Jacob Steeves of actually controlling the network, claiming that the so-called "decentralization" was just a facade. This incident has sparked deep concerns in the market over the governance of decentralized AI projects.
Sector Rotation: SocialFi and DePIN Excel
As market sentiment repairs, clear fund rotation is occurring. The SocialFi sector leads the gains, with Toncoin (TON) and Chiliz (CHZ) showing strong performance. Additionally, the DePIN and RWA sectors have also recorded over 3% gains, indicating a trend of funds flowing back from purely speculative MEME coins to "track stocks" with business fundamentals.
Macroeconomics
On April 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 4 was 219,000, compared to the expected 210,000.
On April 9, the U.S. core PCE price index for February year-on-year was 3%, as expected.
On April 10, the U.S. March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year was 3.3%, a new high since May 2024, in line with market expectations, previous value 2.40%.
On April 9, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, following today's U.S. CPI data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is currently reported at 1.6%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 98.4%.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 6 to April 10, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow was $770 million; as of April 10, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.989 billion, currently holding $11.265 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) is currently holding $57.574 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $93.989 billion.
U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow was $180 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
GOAT Network will hold an offline event themed "How to Make Your First Money with AI Agents" on April 11, 2026, from 14:00-15:00 in Beijing.
Blockchain Forum Russia 2026 will be held from April 14 to 15 in Moscow, Russia.
Paris Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from April 15 to 16 in Paris, France.
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Bitcoin Las Vegas 2026 will be held from April 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, USA.
Project Progress
The airdrop application deadline for Fogo is April 15, 2026.
UX Chain will gradually suspend operations and is expected to fully shut down before May 15.
Yupp.ai will shut down, and the website will remain available for users to download data until April 15.
Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre will close its platform token Mercado Coin on April 17.
Important Events
On April 16 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 (in ten thousand).
Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre will close its platform token Mercado Coin on April 17.
Director Carl Rinsch of "47 Ronin" has been charged with defrauding Netflix of $11 million to purchase cryptocurrencies and luxury goods. He will be sentenced on April 17, 2026, facing a maximum of 90 years in prison.
Token Unlocks
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $4.38 million, accounting for 4.22% of the circulating supply.
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on April 15, worth approximately $3.17 million, accounting for 0.97% of the circulating supply.
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on April 16, worth approximately $10.29 million, accounting for 1.75% of the circulating supply.
ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on April 17, worth approximately $2.67 million, accounting for 2.88% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market threads through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports"; leveraging exclusive columns like Hotcoin Selection (dual screening by AI and experts), to identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Each week, our researchers will also face-to-face with you through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that with warm companionship and professional guidance, more investors can traverse cycles and seize opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly advise investors to conduct investments within a strict risk management framework after fully understanding these risks to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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