• Iran’s $1 bitcoin toll per oil barrel proposal bypasses weaponized fiat, fueling a shift to apolitical rails next.
• Bitwise CIO Hougan claims the $20M hypothetical daily toll proves bitcoin will soon act as both gold and currency.
• If bitcoin captures this new dual role, Hougan calls to update his $1M, 17% market share target up for BTC.

The recent events surrounding the use of bitcoin as a possible means of payment to secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz have brought the prime cryptocurrency into the geopolitical spotlight, and analysts are now examining the possible effects of this use case.

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, believes that adding this functionality to bitcoin’s already extended “digital gold” store-of-value feature during times of geopolitical chaos might push its price to stratospheric heights.

On social media, Hougan stressed that this new possibility of bitcoin becoming a “traditional currency,” while unlikely, was not as far-fetched as it could have been considered some years ago, pointing to the announcement of Iran seeking to take $1 in bitcoin per oil barrel as Hormuz Strait toll, raking up $20 million a day, as evidence.

He stressed that this showed a “reality that transcends the current conflict: In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative.”

In this regard, Hougan likened this bet to an out-of-the-money call option, explaining that during the Iran conflict, two conditions for this to happen appeared: An increased probability of bitcoin being used in a currency-like manner and a rise in the volatility of the global monetary order.

Before, he had estimated that bitcoin could reach up to $1 million by capturing 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market over the next decade. But now, as bitcoin has the opportunity to expand its uses beyond this already established narrative, the goal could be set even higher.

“If bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value (like gold) and an actual currency (like the dollar), we may need to revise our targets higher,” Hougan concluded.

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