Author: Blockchain Knight

The current Bitcoin market shows a stark contradiction, with the supply side tightening continuously, whales accumulating in large amounts, and exchange reserves hitting a seven-year low.

In contrast, the S&P 500 index has reached a historical high, while Bitcoin has been consolidating for an extended period, exhibiting the most severe decoupling from traditional risk assets since 2020, with its price still 40% lower than the peak in October 2025, hovering in the $74,000-$76,000 range.

The tightening of the supply side is particularly prominent.

CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 30 days, whales have accumulated a total of 270,000 Bitcoins, marking the largest accumulation wave since 2013, while exchange Bitcoin reserves have dropped to the lowest level since December 2017.

With the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, the block production will decrease to 3.125 Bitcoins, significantly slowing the annual supply growth.

More than 20.02 million Bitcoins have been mined (with a total supply cap of 21 million), and the concentrated accumulation by whales further compresses the market's tradable chips, resulting in a substantial supply shortage.

Meanwhile, ETF and corporate buying have shown a volatile recovery. The inflow of funds into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has been intermittent, with a daily inflow of $471 million recorded in April, but subsequently, there has been an outflow of funds, indicating unstable overall demand.

In terms of corporate allocation, Strategy has continued to increase its holdings, currently owning 780,897 Bitcoins at an average cost of $75,577, further pulling liquidity out of the market with these long-term holdings.

In contrast to Bitcoin's weakness, the S&P 500 index has shed geopolitical anxieties, hitting a historical high, with a market value increase of over $6 trillion since the low in March, primarily driven by a rise in tech stocks propelled by AI infrastructure narratives, along with macro benefits from easing geopolitical tensions and PPI data coming in below expectations.

However, Bitcoin, traditionally regarded as a high-beta risk asset, failed to benefit in tandem, with its weak correlation to the S&P 500 hitting a more than four-year high.

The core reason is the continuous outflow of on-chain funds, with only 7 days of the 30-day realized market value change being positive in the 105 days before 2026, leading to a lack of support for recovery due to systematic capital outflows.

Although institutional positioning shows signs of recovery, it has yet to form a concerted effort. The bearish preference in the Bitcoin options market has weakened, with institutions actively defending the key support level of $70,000, and ETF inflows reaching as high as $411.5 million in a single day.

However, spot buying remains cautious at present, with the market displaying characteristics of quick profit-taking and cautious allocation, leading to an unstable recovery trend.

The key to future movements lies in whether demand can keep pace with the tightening supply.

If Bitcoin can strongly break through the resistance level of $76,000, it could trigger a short squeeze, ending the decoupling with the stock market and moving towards $80,000.

If it fails to break through, it will continue to consolidate in the $70,000-$76,000 range, and the potential for supply tightness will be difficult to release.

Currently, the Bitcoin market has entered a sensitive structure, with whale accumulation and institutional positioning laying the groundwork for future breakthroughs, but macro sentiment and continued inflows of funds remain core variables in determining whether it can emerge from consolidation.

It is worth noting that the altcoin market has recently begun to show signs of recovery, but whether this can be transmitted to the entire market still needs observation; otherwise, it may be just a flash in the pan.