The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday triggered widespread risk appetite in the market: U.S. stock markets surged, oil prices plummeted, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the market believed that the worst had passed, easing the global energy supply disruptions.

However, these measures may prove to be premature.

On the morning of the 18th (Saturday) at 9:20, reports of two tankers being denied passage in the Strait of Hormuz first broke the calm. Trump immediately put pressure on publicly: If an agreement is not reached by Wednesday, the U.S. will continue to blockade Iranian ports. At 4 PM that day, Iran announced the reimplementation of restrictions in the Strait and opened fire on vessels attempting to pass—two Indian ships turned back to the Persian Gulf after being shelled, causing maritime traffic in the strait to nearly halt.

Traders on TradeXYZ reacted quickly, with oil contracts rising about 4.52% compared to the weekend close, while S&P index contracts fell nearly 0.8%.

Trump then switched his tone, revealing that envoy Steve Witkoff would go to Pakistan for talks with the Iranian side on Tuesday, with the negotiation window possibly extending to Wednesday.

Turning around, Trump also posted on Truth Social, stating, "The agreement we offered is very fair and reasonable, and I hope they accept it, because if they do not accept, the U.S. will destroy every power plant and every bridge in Iran."

Iran clearly is not buying this. At 1:53 AM on the 20th, Iran announced it would refuse to participate in the second round of negotiations; according to Axios, Tehran's judgment was that the U.S. might launch an attack before the ceasefire period ended on Tuesday night.

As a result of this news, oil prices surged again, clearing the high point from the 18th, while the S&P index fell below its low point from the 18th.

In individual stocks, three cryptocurrency stocks significantly underperformed compared to others.

It can be foreseen that the widespread optimism in the market from last week will be penalized. This week's market trend will largely depend on whether Iran can maintain its non-negotiation stance.

Source: weekendmarkets.xyz

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