What to know : Bitcoin is holding above the key $75,000 level, but traders are wary that the looming expiration of the U.S.–Iran ceasefire could trigger sharp moves across risk assets. Markets are also focused on Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing, which could sway expectations for interest-rate policy and broader asset prices. After the weekend's hack of KelpDAO that hit Aave’s ecosystem and drove its token sharply lower, DeFi and memecoin indexes are posting gains.
Bitcoin is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to maintain control.
Still, some observers are urging caution, noting that prices need to hold above that level through Wednesday, when the U.S.–Iran ceasefire is set to end.
"The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday evening Washington time, and the market has to price two paths, extension and de-escalation versus renewed escalation and oil stress. That is why even with BTC strong, the tape can still gap fast. It is headline risk with a timer," analysts at Marex said in an email to CoinDesk.
An escalation could take oil prices well above the March high of $119, potentially sending Asian and global equity markets into a tailspin. The question remains whether bitcoin, which held relatively steady around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market.
As of the time of writing, no delegation from Iran had departed for the talks in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation in the conflict if the ceasefire ends without a deal.
Also on analysts’ radar is Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair, scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh has a reputation as an "inflation hawk" who opposed interest-rate cuts and quantitative easing following the 2008 crash.
So what he says during the session could move markets. "His remarks could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing," digital assets trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.
Speaking of the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) have risen by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens such as XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up over 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the weekend hack of KelpDAO. That saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid restaking token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.
Decentralized lender Aave has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, down nearly $10 billion since before the hack.
Aave's native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack. At the same time, open interest in futures tied to the token hit a record high of 3.59 million tokens. Increased demand for leveraged bets points to potential for more volatility ahead. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Strategy overtakes BlackRock IBIT in bitcoin holdings after bear market buying (CoinDesk): Strategy (MSTR) now holds more bitcoin than BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). The world’s largest publicly traded BTC holder has 815,061 BTC while IBIT holds 802,824 BTC.
- Ripple wants the XRP Ledger to be quantum-proof by 2028. Here is its plan. (CoinDesk): Fintech company Ripple released a detailed four-phase roadmap to make the XRP Ledger, a decentralized, layer-1 blockchain, quantum-resistant, aiming to reach full readiness by 2028.
- Oil prices recede and stocks gain as investors eye peace talks (The New York Times): Brent crude was about $95 a barrel, down about 1%. West Texas Intermediate crude was around $87 a barrel. Investors and analysts focus on the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Bitcoin is less volatile than South Korea's stock market right now (CoinDesk): Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility, currently 42%, has remained below 50% this month. South Korea's benchmark Kospi stock index hit 74% last week and is still around 51%.
Today’s signal
The chart shows XRP's daily price swings in candlestick format. The white line represents the average price over 100 days and the yellow line represents the prolonged bear market.
XRP remains below both the average and the trendline even as market leaders bitcoin and ether (ETH) have topped these levels on their respective price charts.
Until the price reclaims both the 100-day average and the downtrend line, momentum remains comparatively weak versus BTC and ETH, which have already established firmer bullish structures.
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