The most important news today is that Trump has TACO-ed as expected, and he stated that the pause will last until the peace agreement is signed, which also indicates that the U.S. does not intend to fight Iran to the end. However, later Trump expressed that the ceasefire period is not unlimited, and only provided an extra 3 to 5 days, which I find meaningless. By then, it is likely to still be TACO.
Although the risk market has seen a collective rebound, unlike the expectations of the risk market, Brent and WTI are still on the rise, mainly because reports say that even if the Strait of Hormuz is restored, it might take another six months to clear the mines in that area, which suggests that oil prices may remain constrained for a long time.
From my personal perspective, if it is only due to the difficulty of clearing mines, the market expectation for WTI prices should be below 90 dollars, because mines essentially affect transport efficiency, but are not sufficient to support WTI at high levels in the long term. The fact that WTI can still maintain above 90 dollars indicates that the market is pricing not only the difficulty of mine clearance, but also the possibility of ceasefire reversals, continued blockade of Iranian ports, and potential incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Therefore, if there is no larger-scale military escalation later, no new oil facilities are hit, or the Strait of Hormuz is not completely blocked again, I still tend to believe that the sustainability of WTI above 90 dollars will not be very strong. I maintain the judgment of shorting at high levels. (Of course, my judgment could be wrong.)
Returning to Bitcoin data, with the price of $BTC rising, the turnover rate has seen a substantial increase, but the trading volume has not changed much. It seems that investors are showing signs of accelerated selling, however, the overall chip structure has not changed significantly. Today's rise should benefit from the continuation of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Without further positive stimuli, it may be difficult to maintain a sustained rise.
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