Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

The prediction market suddenly began to "accelerate evolution."

Yesterday, Polymarket posted on the X platform stating that it will launch perpetual contracts (Perps) linked to cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, and commodities, allowing users to engage in leveraged trading on the prediction market, with early access registration already open. As of now, the tweet has garnered over 16 million views, and market sentiment was instantly ignited—the prediction market is moving from "making judgments" to "leveraging."

Polymarket's layout in the perpetual contracts market

In addition, another giant, Kalshi, has also started to signal. On April 14, in its official preview video, a continuously spinning green spiral ultimately converged to "Timeless," implying that the product will break through the limitations of "time." The community generally speculates that this update may introduce a perpetual prediction market without an expiration date.

Kalshi may also be entering the perpetual contracts market

According to an exclusive report by The Information on April 22, Kalshi plans to launch perpetual futures products, initially expected to start with cryptocurrency-linked perpetual contracts, and potentially expand this model to commodities and other asset classes in the future. Initially, it will use U.S. dollars as collateral, and will later introduce stablecoin support.

Putting these actions together, this is not merely a simple product upgrade, but rather an obvious expansion. The new derivatives player Hyperliquid is rewriting the rules from the ground up—allowing anyone to issue perpetual contracts on its platform, including “event-based assets” such as election results, match scores, and macroeconomic data. In other words, the core layer of "betting demand" in the prediction market is being directly consumed by a native derivatives protocol. This proposal has been in testing on the testnet since early February.

Under such pressure, Polymarket and Kalshi’s simultaneous "Perps-ification" is less an offense than a form of active defense—introducing perpetual contracts to cope with Hyperliquid’s spillover impact on its core demand.

But the real variables don’t stop here. As decentralized protocols begin to infiltrate the heart of the prediction market, on the other side, centralized exchanges have quietly entered the arena. The prediction market is becoming a piece of infrastructure that must be contested.

Binance: Integrating the BNB Chain ecological prediction market predict.fun into the main site, currently available in some regions

Binance has chosen not to build a prediction market from scratch but has directly integrated the largest prediction market platform predict.fun on the BNB Chain.

On March 31, Binance Wallet announced it would launch the Prediction Markets feature, with the core partner being the leading protocol predict.fun on the BNB Chain. Users can participate in prediction trading directly within the App using USDT in their accounts, without needing to switch to external platforms, and it supports market orders, limit orders, and other trading methods. With an independent Prediction Account (based on MPC technology) and gas fee subsidies, this design essentially accomplishes one thing—transforming the originally on-chain prediction market into a product that offers a "trading market experience."

On April 9, Binance officially announced that it has integrated the Prediction Markets feature in its Wallet, opening the probability trading entry for users through access to the third-party on-chain prediction market platform Predict.fun. The products cover various categories such as sports, macro, and crypto, but Binance itself does not engage in market-making or result adjudication, focusing instead on the "entry layer"—facilitating connections between users and on-chain prediction protocols.

Display image of Binance's main site prediction market (currently only available in some regions)

Additionally, last weekend, at an offline event held by BNB Chain in Hong Kong, based on user feedback, predict.fun appeared not only as the main sponsor but also secured a nearly "C-position" display spot on-site.

OKX: Leaks in advance, prediction market layout gradually reveals

As early as before the formal product signals appeared, news about OKX's layout of the prediction market was circulating within the community. In February, job postings indicated that OKX had begun recruiting "DeFi Traders (Prediction Market/Sports)."

LinkedIn post regarding OKX recruiting for prediction market-related employees

Subsequently, KOL AB Kuai.Dong disclosed that a leading exchange is signing long-term contracts with KOLs to promote the newly launched prediction market product, with the internal product nearing completion of development, expected to launch in May to June. Combined with communication from a Japanese offline event, the market generally points to OKX as this entity.

KOL AB Kuai.Dong leak

Entering April, relevant signals began to shift from rumor to product level. In early April, OKX’s product document page quietly went live with content related to "prediction markets/event contracts," including "how to trade event contracts and delivery logic introduction" and "what are event contracts," etc. The document states that event contracts are a type of derivative product defined by natural language events and are settled based on the final results; this design is also widely interpreted as a "simplified version" of the prediction market form.

More importantly, last weekend, OKX CEO Star posted and indirectly confirmed this direction: Events & Options have completed upgrades, and users can predict and trade around events such as 15-minute price fluctuations, intraday price ranges, etc., supporting both single trades and multi-strategy combination trading. This statement further links the previously scattered product signals with market speculation.

OKX CEO Star's statement that Events & Options have completed upgrades

From the currently disclosed information, the so-called “event contracts” seem more like a CEX version of the prediction market prototype, primarily focusing on short-period price outcomes surrounding BTC and ETH, such as fluctuations within 15 minutes, whether a target price is achieved, etc. Without changing the derivatives framework, embedding "event judgment" into the trading structure lowers understanding barriers and reserves space for subsequent product expansion.

MEXC: Launched its own prediction market platform

On March 16, 2026, MEXC officially launched Prediction Market Beta (event contract), becoming one of the few CEXes to launch its own prediction market early.

MEXC prediction market section

In terms of product form, MEXC's prediction market is essentially a centralized version of event contracts, allowing users to trade around geopolitical, macroeconomic, and key events in the crypto industry.

In terms of experience, MEXC emphasizes “native integration”: under a unified account system, users can directly use funds from their spot or contract accounts for trading, without needing on-chain operations or asset migration; at the same time, through zero trading fees, zero settlement fees (during the public testing period), and millisecond-level settlement, further lowering the entry threshold for participation. Overall, its approach is more direct—positioning the prediction market as a new type of contract product within the exchange, rather than as an external extension feature.

Gate.io and Bitget: Both access Polymarket, yet with completely different paths

Besides building their own and protocol access, Gate.io and Bitget have chosen a third path—directly integrating the leading prediction market platform Polymarket. However, their entry methods and product forms are distinctly different.

Gate.io opted for the most direct product integration path. On March 24, it directly embedded a Polymarket entry in its main App, allowing users to participate in Yes/No share trading using USDT in their accounts without needing to switch or connect a wallet, while automatically completing USDC settlements and on-chain operations on Polygon in the background. On this basis, Gate also provides two interface options: “prediction mode” (for beginners) and “trading mode” (order books, candlestick charts, and other professional tools), essentially integrating Polymarket fully into the exchange system, while retaining existing liquidity and significantly lowering usage barriers.

Gate’s main site integrating Polymarket

In contrast, Bitget's integration currently occurs in the Bitget Wallet. On April 21, Bitget Wallet natively integrated Polymarket, allowing users to directly browse and trade related events in a self-custodial environment, while introducing AI-assisted tools to provide data analysis and decision-making references for high-frequency events like sports. In this model, assets remain under user control, leaning towards decentralization, while reducing operation complexity through gas abstraction and convenient recharge methods.

Bitget Wallet integrating Polymarket

Summary

Rather than saying that Polymarket and Kalshi are competing for this new battlefield of perpetual contracts, it’s more accurate to say that centralized exchanges have started systematically entering the prediction market, taking away user and trading demand that originally belonged to native platforms.

In contrast, centralized exchanges still have clear advantages in capital entry, liquidity, and user scale. With various players entering one after another, the pie of the prediction market is being redistributed.

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