Alright, sisters, welcome to the Qing Lan Crypto Classroom! I am your old friend Sister Qing Lan. Today, we won't engage in any abstract discussions; we'll directly use my original "Qing Lan TPV Three-Point Verification Trading System" to analyze the current market clearly and comprehensively. Let's get started with practical analysis; make sure you're settled in!
Step 1: First, look at the big picture (Multi-period trend overview)
Let's build a framework and see the situation across four time periods.
Daily (1d): The overall trend is upward, and the moving averages show a beautiful bullish arrangement. MA5 is at 77351.41, MA10 is at 76328.69, MA30 is at 71774.38, with the price comfortably above all moving averages, indicating that the big direction is sound. However, the latest closing price is 78144.24, which is a bit distant from the previous high of 79472.82, suggesting a small pause after a surge. According to on-chain data, the Fear and Greed Index is 39, which falls into the "fear" zone, indicating that market sentiment is not exuberant; this actually gives bulls some space, rather than the kind of frenzied peak. News mentions "BTC approaching the $80,000 key level", which resonates with our bullish trend observed on the daily chart.
4 hours (4h): This period is quite interesting, as the moving averages are intertwined. MA5 is at 78042.07, MA10 is at 78230.32, with the price fluctuating between them, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears in the short term. The MACD histogram is negative, showing weak momentum, while the RSI is at 68.60, close to the overbought zone but not there yet. This is like running a marathon, where we need to adjust our breathing; the 4-hour chart is doing just that. The total market value has little change over the past 24 hours, up by 0.19%, indicating no significant funds are flowing in or out, and the market is waiting for direction.
1 hour (1h): The moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, with MA5 at 78274.86 and MA10 at 78076.73, and the price is near MA5, indicating a relatively healthy trend. The MACD histogram is positive, with momentum still present, and the RSI is at 61.50, mildly strong. This suggests that the rebound momentum in the short term hasn't been exhausted, but it isn't strong enough to push the price up directly.
15 minutes (15m): The moving averages are also bullish, but the MACD histogram is negative, and the RSI has dropped to 46.52, indicating mild weakness. This shows that there's pressure for a price pullback in the ultra-short term, with frequent trading between bulls and bears. The news mentioning "The deteriorating US-Iran situation causes BTC to drop below $77,000," although it refers to past events, still casts a shadow of geopolitical risk, which significantly affects the short 15-minute cycle, making sudden fluctuations easier.
To summarize: The big direction (daily) is bullish, but the medium and short term (4 hours, 15 minutes) requires adjustment, while the 1 hour acts as a buffer in between. We are currently in a phase of "large trend upwards, small cycles consolidating."
Step 2: Find pivot points, draw key lines (valid highs and lows + trend lines)
We need to find those key positions verified by the market; these are the true "pivot points."
Daily (1d): The most important valid high recently is 79472.82, which was created in the 4-hour period and is also a resistance at the daily level. The valid low goes back to the earlier 62510.28, but the most important recent low is 76132.95 (the daily closing price), which has been tested and rebounded multiple times in subsequent candlesticks, showing high validity. From 76132.95 to 79472.82, we can draw an upward trend line, which, although not touched frequently, has a clear direction.
4 hours (4h): The valid high is that 79472.82, and the valid low can be seen at 76132.95 (also the 4-hour closing price). We can draw an ascending support line from 76132.95 to the most recent low; currently, the price is fluctuating around this line. The news about "$9.87 billion in BTC and ETH options expiring" occurred right after the price hit the 79472.82 high, exacerbating the pressure at the peak, prompting many bulls to choose to take profits.
1 hour (1h): The valid high is at 79472.82, and the valid low can be seen at 76960.00 (the 1-hour lowest price). Drawing an upward trend line from 76960.00, we can see that the current price is also operating above this line.
15 minutes (15m): The high in this period is at 79472.82, and the low can be seen at 76960.00. Recently, a small platform has formed near 78144.24, which is the focus of short-term bull and bear contention.
Step 3: Indicators for support (technical indicators verification)
Let's use indicators to verify these pivot points.
Daily: The MACD is in a golden crossover state, with DIF at 2171.18 and DEA at 1805.82, the histogram is positive, and the momentum is sufficient, validating the strength of the daily upward trend. The RSI is at 65.13, with no divergence observed, indicating a healthy trend.
4 hours: Although the MACD histogram is negative, DIF and DEA remain above the zero line, indicating a pullback within a bullish trend. The RSI is at 68.60, with no divergence, but close to the overbought zone, indicating that short-term momentum may be lagging.
1 hour: The MACD has achieved a golden crossover, with a positive histogram and momentum still present. The RSI is at 61.50, mildly strong, validating a rebound at the 1-hour level.
15 minutes: The MACD has formed a death cross, with a negative histogram, and the RSI is at 46.52, mildly weak, validating short-term pullback pressure. There is no clear divergence signal.
Step 4: Bull and bear arm wrestle (news + on-chain)
News:
Positive factors: Continuous net inflow of Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. (net inflow of 4,349 BTC), Morgan Stanley increasing BTC holdings, institutions are buying up. Belarus launched a crypto bank, which is a small policy benefit. Tether issued an additional 1 billion USDT, indicating that funds are preparing to enter the market.
Negative factors: The US-Iran situation worsens, leading to rising geopolitical risks. $9.87 billion in options expiring results in short-term selling pressure. KelpDAO hackers laundered money, leading to panic in the market. ETH has fallen below 2300 USDT, leading altcoins to weaken and dragging down market sentiment.
Core factors: In the short term, the option expiration is the biggest negativity, as today (April 24) is the expiration date and selling pressure will continue. In the medium to long term, the continued net inflow of ETF is the biggest positive indication, showing that institutions are optimistic about future prospects. Short-term deviations exist between technical and news aspects; the technical outlook is bullish, but the news contains bearish pressures.On-chain data:
The Fear and Greed Index is 39 (fear), indicating that market sentiment is cautious, not a time for frenzied buying; this may actually be a characteristic of a bottom zone. Bitcoin's dominance is at 58.17%, which is high, indicating that funds are concentrating on Bitcoin, while altcoins are relatively weak. The total market capitalization has slightly increased by 0.19% in 24 hours, with no obvious capital outflow. On-chain data and technical indicators resonate with each other, both pointing to the big direction being fine, but there is a need to digest bearish factors in the short term.
Step 5: The path of least resistance (trading strategy)
Overall, the current path of least resistance is fluctuating upwards, but there is short-term pullback pressure. Our trading approach is "mainly long at low levels, not chasing highs."
Key entry area: Pay attention to the area near the 4-hour upward trend line, roughly in the 77600-77800 range (referencing the 15-minute low of 77725.09 and the 1-hour low of 77678.65); if the price can pull back to this area and show stabilization signals, it would be a good entry point for long trades.
Stop loss basis: If the price drops below the key support at the 4-hour level (76132.95), it indicates that the upward structure may be damaged, necessitating a stop-loss for long trades.
Target area: The first target looks near the previous high of 79472.82, and after a breakout, aims for the psychological level of $80,000 (which has been mentioned multiple times in the news). Today's trading thought: Patiently wait for a pullback and test long positions near support levels with light positions.
Step 6: How the day will unfold (market prediction)
Current (within a few hours): The ultra-short term is highly likely to fluctuate within the range of 77600-78500, digesting the pressure from the options expiration.
Today and recent key points: Today, the most important support level is the 77600-77800 area (the 4-hour upward trend line); if it drops below, it will test 76132.95. The most important resistance level is 79472.82; a breakout is needed to open up upward space. The trend lines to pay attention to are the upward support lines on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
Trading thoughts: The only suitable direction for trading today is "long at low levels." The reason is: overall bullish direction, and short-term pullbacks provide opportunities rather than risks. Enter near key support levels, with clear stop-losses and reasonable risk-reward ratios.
In summary: A single sentence encapsulating the core contradiction in the current market: the long-term bullishness of institutions versus the short-term selling pressure from options expiration.
Trading golden quote: Combining the news of "ETF continuous net inflow for six days" and "options expiration," our golden quote is: Don't be blinded by the waves of expiration; focus on the direction of the big ship that is the ETF.
[Qing Lan TPV Trading System Backtesting Data]
(Based on nearly 1049 historical backtests, with an accuracy rate of 72.1%. Backtest results are for strategy confidence reference only, past performance does not guarantee future profits.)
[Qing Lan's Personal View]
Sisters, honestly speaking, the most feared thing in trading is being led by short-term fluctuations. Look at this chart; the main direction is clearly up, but with any bearish news, many panic and sell at the lowest point. The greatest purpose of our TPV system is to help us find an "anchor" in the noisy market, knowing where the bottom is and where the top is. Today's options expiration is a washout, shaking off the indecisive players while allowing the strong to step up. Remember, when panic arises, it often signifies that opportunities are quietly approaching. Don't always think about buying at the lowest point; buying in relatively safe areas is the long-term strategy.
This TPV system has been honed over the years from my live monitoring, reviewing, and practical experience; I can't claim it's 100% accurate, but at least it gives us more confidence at critical positions. If you want to receive the latest entry opportunities captured based on the TPV system immediately, feel free to visit the Qing Lan Crypto Classroom official website www.qinglan.org; I'll see you in class～
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