😆 The price of WTI oil exceeded $100 today, and it's not far from my third purchase at $103. I wonder if I will be able to buy it back. Shorting WTI at high points is my main strategy right now, mainly because I believe the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will not be long-term. The extension of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran indicates that both sides do not want to continue fighting. The rise in oil prices should not exceed the blockade period during the war.
Additionally, today's news of the UAE withdrawing from OPEC+ has also caused some market fluctuations, but in the long run, the UAE's exit is aimed at increasing production, which is beneficial for lowering oil prices. Currently, the surge in WTI is mainly due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Moreover, although the U.S. and Iran have still not reached a reconciliation, Iran has revised its peace proposal after the U.S. refusal, which should be announced in the coming days. This is good news for comprehensive peace between the U.S. and Iran and for the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz; as long as it is still progressing, there is a possibility of success.
Early Thursday morning will be the latest Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. There is a consensus in the market that there will be no rate adjustments. Compared to March, there should not be too much change in April, continuing to be presided over by Powell. The main concern will likely be whether there will be an interest rate hike due to rising oil prices. From the current perspective, it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will resort to interest rate hikes.
Looking back at the data for Bitcoin, the turnover rate has strengthened somewhat, but the trading volume is not very large. It seems that some investors who recently bought the dip due to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have started to exit, and the lack of new positive news has led to pullbacks in both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrencies, which is quite normal. The current $BTC will still be influenced by U.S. macro and economic factors.
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