Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

Although there hasn't been complete reconciliation between the US and Iran, after being pushed back by the US, Iran has revised its peace proposal, which will be announced in the coming days. As long as talks are still happening, there's hope!

This is good news for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and for oil price stability; stop daydreaming about the worst-case scenarios. I believe this situation will progress, and the chances for comprehensive peace are quite high.

On Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will hold another meeting, and the market consensus has been established—interest rates will remain unchanged! There's not much difference between April and March, and that old guy Powell will still be in charge.

Currently, it seems the Federal Reserve is unlikely to foolishly raise interest rates, and the likelihood of maintaining a dovish stance is greater.

Getting back to the Bitcoin market, the turnover rate has increased a bit, but the trading volume hasn't exploded. It's clear that the people who previously bottom-fished due to the US-Iran pause are starting to pull out. Without any new positive news, the US stock market and cryptocurrencies are both correcting, which is perfectly normal! Right now, Bitcoin still has to watch the macroeconomic trends from the US.

If the Federal Reserve sends a dovish signal, the price might push up to test 79K-79.5K; if hawkish remarks are made, it could drop directly to 76K-76.5K; if it’s neutral, it will continue to hover in the 77K-78.5K range.

In the short term, the resistance level above is 79.5K, which is a tough nut to crack, and the selling pressure wall around 80K-81K is even thicker; below, 76K is the first hurdle, and 75.7K is the core buying level. If that level is broken, we’ll look to 72K-73K.

Recently, Bitcoin has rebounded well, which has led to inflows into spot ETFs, but those entering the market are mostly financial investors and short-term traders. When the price corrects, this group runs faster than anyone else.

From the data, the main force leaving on Monday came from Fidelity, whose investors operate relatively flexibly, while BlackRock remains quite stable for now.

ETH's situation is similar. Although BlackRock is maintaining net inflows into stakable spot ETFs, Fidelity is still the main force selling, with a structure very similar to Bitcoin. Before liquidity fully recovers, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks remains strong.

My view on Bitcoin for the upcoming week is simple: the short-term oscillation range is likely between 74K and 83K. The trend needs to watch the performance of the US stock market, while also considering the US-Iran negotiations in the Middle East, economic data, and interest rate expectations.

The ultimate resistance for this rebound is around 85.3K. Once the macro dynamics propel it upwards, we need to keep a close eye on whether there will be massive sell pressure and turnover in this range.

Personally, I believe that the next round of formal correction will most likely be caused by economic data—slowing growth, rebounding inflation, stagflation, or recession risks—plus expectations for rate cuts being delayed.

Of course, if the price can rebound to 85.3K before correcting, that would signify a very optimistic trend. As long as it doesn't break new lows, this essentially marks the beginning of a new trend. Currently, I still do not see any possibility of Bitcoin dropping to 50K, let alone below 50K.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Bitcoin is currently around 76.3K. After a strong surge last week, today shows a clear correction, and the market is currently oscillating to digest earlier profits. Overall, today’s focus is on finding direction amid the fluctuations.

Bitcoin faced strong selling pressure near previous highs. Although it surged briefly yesterday, it was quickly pushed back down, with trading volume clearly increasing as significant profit-taking occurred around 76.3K.

The RSI is already retreating from the overbought area, and short-term upward momentum is weakening. From a technical perspective, it is in a profit-taking phase.

Resistance is mainly concentrated around 76.7K-77.6K. If it cannot effectively break through, the upward space will be limited.

The support level of 75K is currently an important psychological barrier, followed by the mid-line support at 73.6K. If it falls below 75K, it may further test 73.6K.

If today continues to weaken and breaks below 76.7K, it will likely accelerate downward, testing the 75K or even 73.6K support.

If it can stabilize around 75K and successfully reclaim the upper resistance today (Wednesday), there is a possibility of rebounding to challenge the 76.3K–76.6K range, or even reach higher positions.

April 29 Master’s Trading Plan:

Long Entry Reference: 74600-75000 range Long Target: 76000-76700

Short Entry Reference: 76700-77600 range Short Target: 76000-75000

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you must keep following them and not jump to conclusions after just a few observations. This market is filled with performance-type players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, and it seems like “they always catch the top and bottom,” but in reality, it’s all hindsight. Bloggers worthy of attention will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny—not just sporadic insights when the market moves. Don't be blinded by extravagant data and fragmented screenshots. Long-term observation and deep understanding will allow you to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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