Written by: Fang Dao

Bitcoin has risen about 15% in the past 30 days. On the surface, this appears to be a technical rebound; however, when looking at the price movement alongside on-chain structures, this current upward trend resembles a rebalancing of the holder structure.

The "morning star pattern" formed since April reflects the market's process from the release of sell-offs, to convergence in observation, to the recovery of buying power. However, what truly deserves attention is not the pattern itself, but the changes in participants behind the pattern.

On-chain data indicates that the percentage of realized market value contributed by short-term holders has fallen below 7%. Historically, this level typically corresponds to a phase of short-term traders exiting and a decrease in market participation. As frequently traded chips gradually decrease, the price is no longer predominantly driven by emotional fluctuations, but begins to be more influenced by a long-term holding structure.

Capital flows are also aligning with this change. Recently, there has been a net inflow of about $3 billion, marking the first sustained positive inflow since December of last year. This indicates that market funds are transitioning from a defensive state to an accumulation state. Unlike short-term funds, this type of capital has a higher tolerance for price fluctuations and is more likely to support the continuation of trends.

The current key position is around $78,000. Bitcoin has regained the real market average price of about $78,100, which is the first return to this level since mid-January. Further above, around $80,100 corresponds to the cost range for short-term holders.

The significance of this range is not just a technical resistance level, but also a behavioral pressure point.

Once the price approaches the short-term holder's cost line, the funds that were bought in the past period will enter a state of break-even or profit-taking. Glassnode data shows that the realized profits of short-term holders have risen to about $4.4 million per hour, significantly higher than the reference level of $1.5 million seen near previous local highs. This indicates that the market is experiencing a round of profit-taking at high levels.

Therefore, the core issue in the current market is not whether the 15% increase has ended, but whether new capital can continue to absorb the chips released by short-term holders.

If ETF and institutional allocation funds continue to flow in, the support range above $73,000 may become a new cost bottom; if inflows weaken, short-term profit-taking may still repress the price rhythm.

This is also where this round of market activity differs from a typical technical rebound.

Price is no longer just operating around the pattern, but is testing the holding capacity of the holder structure. While technical patterns remain important, what truly determines the trend behind them is who is selling and who is willing to continue holding.

Whether Bitcoin's rise continues ultimately depends on whether this redistribution of chips can be completed. After short-term traders exit, the market needs new long-term buyers to take over the pricing in the next phase.

References

Benzinga Technical Analysis Report

Ali Martinez On-chain and Pattern Analysis CryptoQuant / Glassnode Market Structure Data

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