What to know : Bitcoin is consolidating below recent highs, but historical seasonality, bullish ETF inflows and supportive equity markets point to a potential upside bias in May. Still, rising bond yields, especially the U.S. 30-year hitting 5%, and geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict and energy prices pose significant macro headwinds for bitcoin and other risk assets. A looming bullish crossover of bitcoin’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages signals strengthening momentum, though past instances show such patterns can fail in weaker market environments.
Bitcoin is on the defensive as April draws to a close, though seasonal trends suggest any pullbacks may prove short-lived, potentially paving the way for a renewed move higher in the weeks ahead.
Data going back to 2013 shows that May tends to be a bullish month for the largest cryptocurrency, with gains in seven of the past 13 years. While the average return of around 8% is less impressive than stronger months like October and November, it still points to a positive bias.
Coming on the heels of April’s roughly 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain intact. The outlook is supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already hovering near record highs.
Back-to-back net monthly inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish case. These ETFs have pulled in over $1.8 billion this month following March's $1.32 billion.
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Still, traders need to keep an eye on bond markets, where rising yields are posing a headwind to risk assets.
"Bitcoin's failure to sustain above $78K and the subsequent drift back toward $75K suggests the market is digesting the "higher-for-longer" signal," Jake Kennis, a research analyst at Nansen, said in an email. "Absent a liquidity catalyst, it appears range-bound rather than setting up for a breakout, with macro headwinds capping near-term upside despite broadly flat performance over 14 days (+0.7%)."
The other risk is a global economic flare-up. Several observers, including energy analyst Anas Alhajji, warned that the negative impact of the Iran war and the energy market disruption could tank the global economy in May.
Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, suggested the same in a report to clients on Thursday.
"May is when the lag ends, and the real economy starts paying the bill," he said. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price (CoinDesk): Several factors, including the hawkish dissent within the Federal Reserve, elevated oil prices and rising long-term inflation expectations are pushing bond yields higher.
- Jack Mallers' Twenty One Capital surges after majority holder Tether proposes 3-way merger (CoinDesk): Tether Investments proposed merging Twenty One Capital (XXI) with Strike, a Bitcoin financial services platform, and bitcoin miner Elektron Energy. XXI shares climbed nearly 8% in after-market trading on Wednesday.
- Brent pares gains after hitting 4-year highs as report stokes worries of U.S. military action against Iran (CNBC): Brent crude futures rose to a wartime high of $126 a barrel, before paring gains to $121.56 per barrel, up 3% for the session, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 1.5% to $108.44.
- Eurozone inflation hits 3% as oil prices spike and economic growth slows (euronews): Annual inflation in the 21 countries that use the euro rose to 3.0% from 2.6% in March, driven by an 11% increase in energy prices.
Today’s signal
The chart shows bitcoin's price swings in candlestick format over 2026 and 2021-22. The graphs show two lines: the red one represents the average price over 50 days and the white shows the average over 100 days.
As of today, the 50-day average appears poised to move above the 100-day average. Chart analysts refer to this as a bullish crossover, a signal that short-term momentum is strengthening relative to the medium-term trend and may point to further upside if sustained.
So, the impending crossover suggests more BTC price gains ahead. That said, the indicator has a mixed record, particularly during bear markets. For instance, a similar bull cross occurred in March 2022, as the chart on the right shows. But, it ended up trapping bulls on the wrong side of the market, as prices took a deeper dive in the following weeks.
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