Today, WTI oil prices have slightly decreased, but as long as they remain above 100 dollars, it is no longer a comfortable position for inflation. Many may feel that as long as oil prices do not continue to surge, market pressure will ease. But in reality, the most troublesome aspect of oil prices is not how much they rise in a day, but how long they stay at a high level.
If WTI briefly surges above 100 dollars and then quickly returns below 90 dollars, the market can interpret it as a short-term risk premium brought on by geopolitical factors. However, if WTI stays above 100 dollars for an extended period, it will begin to layer its impact through gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, shipping, logistics, chemical, and agricultural transportation costs into inflation.
Currently, gasoline prices in the United States have clearly increased, with regular gasoline re-entering the range of over 4 dollars per gallon. While this price may not cause the U.S. economy to collapse immediately, it is certainly enough to put pressure on average households. Spending an extra ten dollars on a fill-up may not seem like much, but for low to middle-income families, it directly squeezes their cash flow. More money spent on fuel means less money for dining, entertainment, retail, and travel.
More critically, rising diesel prices can be more problematic than gasoline. Gasoline affects consumer sentiment, while diesel impacts the entire logistics system. Trucking, ports, cold chain, construction materials, and agricultural distribution all rely on diesel. If diesel prices remain high, it will eventually transform into a secondary transmission of commodity prices, service prices, and business costs.
This is not good news for Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. Because high oil prices will rekindle inflation expectations, and when inflation expectations rise, it will suppress rate cut expectations. When rate cut expectations are suppressed, real interest rates will not easily decrease, and the valuation logic of risk assets will be impacted.
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