The past two days have been particularly uncomfortable, with a slight cold, and I remind everyone to pay attention to their health during the transition from spring to summer. The short position idea given yesterday, at the current price has surprisingly yielded a profit of 500 points, successfully exiting, while the limit order set at 76000-76500 became an instant exit point, likely failing to escape. Today shows a recovery state, with prices repeatedly piercing the 77000 level, also reflecting two pieces of news: the released data raised the probability of a rate cut to 58%, and the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency transparency bill is preparing to advance, with Trump expected to sign it this summer. Both pieces of news directly led to a short-term rebound in the market, and they are also key messages that will determine whether this year can trend bullish. In the performance of U.S. stocks, cryptocurrency concept stocks have once again increased, with technology stocks leading the way, various data suggesting signs of economic recovery. However, a calm state must still be maintained; the stability of Bitcoin at the 80000 mark is crucial for the reversal between bull and bear markets.

Recently, Kevin Warsh's nomination as chairman of the Federal Reserve received approval from the Senate Banking Committee, and his tenure may bring significant changes to the Federal Reserve. Warsh is considering abandoning the Federal Reserve's long-standing forward guidance, believing that such guidance not only fails to effectively stabilize the market but may also limit the decision-making flexibility of the Federal Reserve. On the future path of monetary policy, Warsh's statements still exhibit some uncertainty. He believes that if advancements in technology such as artificial intelligence significantly boost productivity, even with a rate cut, inflation may not spiral out of control. The market generally believes that under the "wait-and-see" approach of the Federal Reserve, the deepening fissures may exacerbate policy uncertainty during the potentially incoming "Warsh era." In this interest rate meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 8 to 4 to pass the rate decision, marking the largest number of dissenting votes since October 6, 1992.

Old Cui summarizes: Today's article attempts to reduce the word count, and I tentatively consider Warsh's ascension as favorable for rate cuts; a specific analysis still needs to be combined with his first speech. Today, Musk also mentioned that most cryptocurrencies are scams, which I very much agree with, and this is why I strongly oppose everyone from holding small coins. Recently, I've kept an eye on the fluctuations in DOGE, and not mentioning it means I am not very optimistic about it. The fluctuations in small coins can only be seen as indicators of a bull market; for the next round of bull markets, I do not have high hopes for these unlisted coins. Returning to contracts, the depth of this short-term pullback is sufficient. The key point to determine is whether the selling pressure at the 80000 mark has arrived early or if it is an issue of capital connection. The connected quotes have already reached new highs for the day; if there are users wanting to enter the market, it is advisable to focus primarily on short positions. Urgent users can enter at the current price to maintain a profit of around 500 points, while patient users can wait for a new high; entering short positions after a new high may have a significant profit potential, even exceeding a thousand points. Not feeling well today, so I won't say much!

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