What to know : Ark Invest projects bitcoin’s market value will soar to $16 trillion by 2030, implying a more than 10-fold increase from today’s roughly $1.5 trillion. The firm flagged accelerating institutional adoption via ETFs and corporate treasuries, along with sovereign entities. Ark expects bitcoin to gain ground as “digital gold,” estimating it could capture about 40 percent of gold’s market value and benefit from even small allocations within a roughly $200 trillion global investment portfolio.
Bitcoin , the largest cryptocurrency, is set to surge in the next four years, propelling its market capitalization to $16 trillion by 2030, Ark Invest said in its annual research report, Big Ideas.
The more than 10-fold growth — market cap is currently about $1.5 trillion — will be driven by accelerated institutional adoption and crypto's evolution into an asset class that features in investment portfolios worldwide, the Cathie Wood-led investment company said. That's a compound annual rate of roughly 63%.
Bitcoin's increased popularity will help drive the broader digital asset market to around $28 trillion by the end of the decade, according to the report. It's currently about $2.7 trillion, according to CoinDesk data. It also means the price could surge: Even if all 21 million BTC were in circulation by then, which they wouldn't be, one bitcoin would be valued at more than $730,000.
Wood has long been bullish on bitcoin. In January, Ark Invest forecast a price range of $300,000-$1.5 million by 2030. In February, Wood reiterated its appeal as a hedge against inflation and deflation, driven by technological acceleration.
"Bitcoin is maturing as the leader of a new institutional asset class,” the report said, buoyed by adoption across exchange-traded funds (EFTs), corporate treasuries and sovereign entities.
Institutional ownership of, primarily, bitcoin is already rising quickly. U.S. ETFs and public companies held about 12% of the total bitcoin supply at the end of last year, an increase from about 9% a year earlier, the report said.
The move reflects a shift in how bitcoin is perceived. Once seen primarily as a speculative asset, it is increasingly being considered “digital gold,” a macro hedge and a reserve asset alongside traditional stores of value.
It adds that even a modest penetration into institutional holdings, as low as 2.5% of an estimated $200 trillion global portfolio excluding gold, could contribute about $5 trillion to bitcoin’s total valuation.
The report also predicts that bitcoin will capture an estimated 40% of gold’s total market value, which it estimated at just over $24 trillion currently, implying nearly $10 trillion in additional upside from the “digital gold” narrative alone.
Other contributions to bitcoin’s growth would come from emerging demand for a neutral reserve asset, where even just a 0.5% penetration of a lower $68 trillion monetary base could add about $339 billion in value, along with allocations from nation-states and corporate treasuries that could each contribute hundred of billions of dollars more.
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