This evening's market can be described as a direct confrontation between bulls and bears at a critical position. Among the key news, two pieces of information are particularly noteworthy. First is "Bitcoin surged to $78,000, a 2.3% increase in 24 hours," which directly propelled the price to break through the psychological barrier of $78,000 that we had repeatedly emphasized, thoroughly igniting bullish sentiment in the short term. However, simultaneously, the macro negative news "Stagflation environment suppresses risk appetite, global central banks trapped in a dilemma due to stagflation" serves as a sword hanging over our heads, reminding us that the sustainability of this rise may be put to the test. The coexistence of macro pressure and short-term breakthroughs is precisely the most typical contradiction in the current market. As an analyst at Qinglan Crypto Classroom, I always emphasize that finding certainty in contradictions is the core of professional trading.

Current Price and Time

The current time is May 1st, 22:06, and the latest quote for Bitcoin is 78,650 USDT. The 24-hour increase is 2.73%, and after breaking through the $78,000 level, the price is now in a high-level consolidation phase. Market sentiment has shifted from fear to greed, but the fear and greed index remains at 26, indicating that overall sentiment is still cautious, leaving room for variability in subsequent market trends.

Multi-Cycle Status Overview

From the daily level, the price closed at 78,650, above the MA5 (76,898) and MA30 (74,082), but the MA10 (77,464) has not yet been effectively broken. The MACD histogram remains negative, with the DIF line below the DEA line, indicating that bullish momentum at the daily level has not yet been fully established, and is currently in a rebound repair stage following a decline. The RSI is at 55.09, in the neutral to strong region.

The 4-hour level shows more positive performance. The price is clearly above the MA5 (77,344), MA10 (76,775), and MA30 (76,926), with a golden cross formed between MA5 and MA10. The MACD histogram has continuously expanded, with the DIF line crossing above the zero axis, and the RSI at 63.07, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is accelerating.

The 1-hour level is currently the strongest cycle. The price is far above the MA5 (78,010), MA10 (77,598), and MA30 (76,805), with both the DIF and DEA of the MACD at high levels. Although the histogram has shortened, it remains in positive territory, and the RSI is as high as 83.27, entering the overbought range. This suggests that while the trend is upward, there is short-term demand for a pullback.

The 15-minute level presents a typical characteristic of shaking at a high after overbought conditions. The price is fluctuating within a narrow range of 78,500-78,800, with the RSI reaching 87.40, and the MACD histogram beginning to narrow, suggesting that the upward momentum at this level is exhausting, and there is demand for a short-term pullback to lower support.

TPV Signal Verification

According to the core rules of the Qinglan TPV system, we first assess the trend positioning. The current price of 78,650 is far above the 1-hour EMA55 of 76,787.73, and over the last 8 1-hour candlesticks, the closing price has been above EMA55 8 times, with 0 crossings, and an absolute amplitude of 2.43%, far exceeding the 0.3% fluctuation threshold. This clearly tells us that the current market is in a unilateral bullish trend area, rather than a fluctuation market.

Next, we verify the conditions for going long. First, the price remains steady above the 1H EMA55, with consecutive 2 1-hour candlesticks closing above EMA55; this condition is fully met, as there have actually been 8 consecutive candlesticks above EMA55. Second, support stabilizes; after breaking above 78,000, there has been no evident long lower shadow or bottom formation structure, as the price surged directly upwards, but we can regard the 78,000 integer level as an effective support level, where the price gained buying support and bounced back. Third, bearish momentum exhaustion; the MACD histogram has shortened for two consecutive periods, but note that the current 1-hour MACD histogram is continuously expanding and has not shortened, and the RSI is also at a high level, indicating that the current upward momentum is still strong and has not shown signs of exhaustion. Therefore, strictly speaking, the third item "bearish momentum exhaustion" in the long conditions does not apply, as we are currently in a phase of sustained upward momentum. This suggests that in a strong unilateral market, the TPV system focuses more on trend following rather than waiting for exhaustion signals after a pullback. For those already in long positions, they can continue to hold; for those not holding positions, the risk of chasing high prices lies in the pullback following RSI overbought conditions.

On-chain/Funding Situation

In terms of on-chain data, the fear and greed index is at 26, still in the fear range, which diverges from the strong price increase, indicating that market sentiment has not fully turned optimistic, often suggesting that there is still room for the rise, but it may also signal short-term profit-taking pressure. BTC's market dominance remains at 58.54%, indicating that funds are still concentrating on Bitcoin. Among the key news, "In April, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $2.021 billion, led by BlackRock," and "Short-term holders increased their holdings by 300,000 BTC, risk appetite has rebounded," these two pieces of information provide solid funding support for the current rise. Institutions continue to buy, and new buyers are entering the market; these are all positive signals.

Key Attack and Defense Levels

The first resistance level above is the $79,000 integer mark, which is near the upper Bollinger band at the 4-hour level. The second resistance level is the psychological mark of $80,000, which is also the position of the MA60 moving average at the daily level. The first support level below is $78,000, which is the recently broken resistance turned support level, and is also near the MA30 moving average at the 15-minute level. The second support level is at the 1-hour EMA55 of $76,787, which is the dividing line between bulls and bears; if it falls below this level, the trend may change.

Trading Strategy

Based on the current unilateral bullish trend but with short-term overbought technical characteristics, Qinglan Crypto Classroom offers the following trading strategy.

Direction: Short-term bullish, but need to wait for pullback stabilization before entering; does not recommend chasing high prices.

Entry Conditions: Wait for the price to pull back near $78,000 and show a stabilization signal at the 15-minute level, such as a long lower shadow, bottom formation, or bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. If the price directly breaks above $79,000 and stabilizes, it can also be considered to lightly enter a long position, but stricter stop-loss settings are necessary.

Stop-loss Level: Strictly set below $77,500, which is the confirmation level after breaking the $78,000 support. If the price falls below $77,500, the short-term bullish structure may be damaged.

Target Levels: First target level is $79,000, second target level is $80,000. After reaching the first target level, it is advisable to reduce the position by half and move the stop-loss up to the breakeven position.

Risk Warning

Currently, RSI is overbought, and the risk of chasing high prices is extremely high. Be sure to wait for a pullback or confirmation of a breakthrough before entering; do not blindly chase above $78,500.

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📊 Qinglan TPV Trading Strategy Backtest Reference
🕒 Last Backtest Time: 05-01 07:00:02
Total Analysis: 1216 Backtests: 1210 Accuracy: 70.2% (849/1210)

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