Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Nasdaq 25,000, a number that never existed before

On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,114.44 points, marking the first time in human financial history that it greeted the weekend above 25,000.

The S&P 500 rose 0.29% to 7,230.12 points, continuing to set historical records. The Dow Jones fell 0.31% to 49,499.27 points, just 500 points away from the 50,000 mark, but has never been able to cross it. The Russell 2000 rose 0.46%, and the VIX closed at 16.99, indicating that fear is stabilizing at low levels.

This week, Wall Street completed an almost incredible finish: amid Brent crude oil soaring to $126, Powell departing with a split vote of 8 to 4, and MAG4 collectively announcing a $725 billion spend, the S&P 500 posted a weekly gain, and the Nasdaq also rose for the week, with the market maintaining historic highs.

The logic driving Friday's gains was the same as throughout April: it was still about earnings, and still about Apple.

Apple rose about 3% on Friday, turning the after-hours earnings bounty from last night into formal intraday gains. The previous day's 9% surge in Alphabet's after-hours trading had already been partially digested by Thursday, and Friday continued to outperform the market. Qualcomm jumped 15%, pulling an entire sub-sector of semiconductors up with it, with the key being the statement, "collaboration on custom chips for a leading super client is proceeding as planned, with the first batch of shipments expected this year." Although unnamed, the market has already understood.

However, differentiation was also clear on that day. Sandisk was the most ironic example: Q1 revenue of $5.95 billion surged year-on-year, with adjusted EPS of $23.41 well exceeding expectations of $14.51, and Q4 guidance of $775-825 million also surpassed the market consensus of $665 million. From any perspective, this is a beautiful report card. The result? The stock price fell about 5%. The only reason is that it has risen over 360% since the beginning of the year, and the market chose to realize profits amidst good news. Whether the earnings report is good or not does not matter; what matters is how much the stock price has risen compared to the earnings report beforehand.

Roblox plummeted about 17%. This online gaming platform significantly lowered its full-year guidance, deflecting blame to the newly launched age verification system. To meet regulatory requirements for protecting minors, Roblox began to enforce age verification for U.S. users, leading to a loss of many young users in the friction. This is a story unique to 2026: the first major victim among public companies in the triangle struggle of regulation, child safety, and growth targets.

Energy giants Exxon and Chevron both delivered better-than-expected profits, but also reported lower-than-expected revenues due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which hampered oil production and transportation in the Middle East, limiting output and causing revenue to be dragged down by the war. Exxon's net profit fell 45% year-on-year, and Chevron's fell 36%. While oil prices doubled, their own production was stuck by the war, and this irony is profoundly deep.

This week, LSEG's latest data shows that more than 80% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q1 performance, with expected earnings growth significantly adjusted from 16.1% before this earnings season to 27.8%, the strongest single quarter since Q4 2021. This is the most solid underpinning logic of this market rebound: it is not liquidity-driven, but driven by real profits.

Oil Prices: Iran Submits New Proposal, $108 Is A Price Discovery of Peace Premium

Friday's oil prices were the most interesting trading day since the outbreak of war.

Before the market opened, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had submitted the latest revised peace negotiation document to the U.S. via Pakistan on Thursday evening. Pakistani officials confirmed to the media that the document had been forwarded to the U.S. and expressed cautious optimism, stating, "we are closer to reaching an agreement than ever."

This news directly wiped out the panic premium accumulated by Brent from the previous day's $126 peak. WTI crude fell over 3%, closing at $101.94 per barrel, the first close below $102 in more than two weeks. Brent fell about 2%, closing at $108.17.

Then Trump appeared.

He told reporters at the White House, "Iran wants to talk, but I'm not satisfied with their proposal. Iran practically has no military left." His tone was milder than in the past few weeks, without mentioning "Black Hawk," nor the intensive strikes. The signal the market read is that negotiations have not ended, they are just still in the bargaining process.

On the same day, Trump publicly stated he would ignore the 60-day congressional authorization period set by the War Powers Resolution, calling the law "unconstitutional" and saying "previous presidents have exceeded it." Democrats in Congress began discussing whether to initiate a legal challenge, but almost no one believed it would constrain the war process in the short term.

Oil prices settled in the range of $102-108, a delicate intermediate price: $126 is the panic price after the "intensive strike plan" was made public, $95 is the rebound price at the early stage of war, and $108 is the realistic price of "negotiations are not dead but not settled." On that day, the market achieved a meaningful pricing adjustment.

Gold slightly rebounded to $4,625 per ounce on Friday, recovering about 1.6% from the $4,550 low of the previous two days. With the decline in oil prices, the dollar index weakened slightly, giving gold some breathing space. The yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury note fell from a weekly high of 4.41% to about 4.38%.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin +2.4% Rebounds, But Las Vegas Conference Prices Are Ineffective

In this season where the Bitcoin conference historically creates price volatility, the 2026 Las Vegas conference gave the market an exceptionally calm lesson.

The Bitcoin 2026 conference was held this week in Las Vegas. The lineup on stage was splendid: Eric Trump (Trump's second son, co-founder of American Bitcoin), Michael Saylor (CEO of Strategy), Senator Cynthia Lummis, Senator Bernie Moreno, along with representatives from the White House's "AI and Crypto Tsar," a whole row of the most powerful Bitcoin evangelists in the U.S. took turns speaking.

Eric Trump's exact words were: "I have absolute faith that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. I don't know if it will be in 2030 or 2031, but it will get there." Saylor's target price was even higher. Everyone on stage was talking about "the greatest era," "institutions are pouring in," "the government will never sell it."

A Bloomberg reporter was present and published the most sober article of the week that day, titled: “Bitcoin Price Lingers Amid Bullish Shouts in Las Vegas”. The report pointed out that while all the celebrities on stage were shouting prices into the microphone, Bitcoin was still hovering around $76,000, and "the sermon strategy's influence on the price has already ceased to be effective."

This is an accurate description of the current predicament of this market.

But something real changed on Friday: oil prices fell 3% due to Iran's peace proposal, risk appetite improved, and Bitcoin rose from an early low of $76,130 to $78,147, closing up 2.41%, consistent with the closing price reported by CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance. Ethereum also rose about 2%, and the total global cryptocurrency market cap rebounded to about $2.68 trillion, with the fear and greed index recovering from the beginning of the week’s 39 (panic) to the 43-45 range (neutral cautious).

The source of this increase was not the line of microphones on stage but an early price signal of reopening the Ho Chi Minh Channel.

What makes Bitcoin's performance on this day more noteworthy is a conclusion from a report published on the same day. Invezz cited data: since the outbreak of war on February 28, Bitcoin has risen about 20%, while during the same period, the S&P 500 has risen about 8%, and gold has risen about 5%. This is the first time in history that Bitcoin has outperformed all traditional safe-haven assets during a significant geopolitical conflict. BlackRock's IBIT, Strategy, and institutional long-term holding structures played a floor role amidst the panic sell-offs caused by each oil price shock.

There’s another subtle signal: Morgan Stanley officially launched its Bitcoin ETF product (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, MSBT) this month and publicly recommended that clients allocate 2-4% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley, managing $7.35 trillion in assets, has now also become a Bitcoin stock promoter.

Today's Summary: Nasdaq Breaks 25,000, But the Real Question Is When Hormuz Will Open

On May 1, the first trading day concluded with a historic-level number.

U.S. Stocks: Nasdaq closed at 25,114.44 (the first in history to break 25,000), S&P 500 closed at 7,230.12, Dow fell 0.31% to close at 49,499.27. Apple +3%, Qualcomm +15%, Alphabet rose again. Roblox -17%, Sandisk -5%, Meta continued to digest. Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with expected earnings growth rising to 27.8%, the strongest since 2021.

Oil Prices/Gold: Iran submitted the latest peace proposal through Pakistan, Brent fell 2% to $108.17, WTI fell 3% to close at $101.94, dropping $17 from the $126 peak. Trump stated he was "not satisfied," but the war tone significantly softened. Gold slightly rebounded to $4,625.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin closed at $78,147, up 2.41%, marking a significant rebound for the first time this week, driven by the risk appetite recovery from Iran's peace proposal, not by the $1 million shout at the Las Vegas conference. The global cryptocurrency market cap is about $2.68 trillion, with the fear and greed index at 43, recovering from the panic zone.

The market now only cares about one question: Did Trump actually look into this new proposal?

It is said that Iran's latest document has made concessions on the "delaying nuclear negotiations" issue, which was the core issue that Trump rejected last time. If this time substantial negotiations can begin, Hormuz's reopening could be faster than anyone expects; if Trump continues to refuse, in the next 60 days, he will face not only Iran but also the controversy over war powers authorization in Congress, and whether oil prices can withstand higher levels.

At least on this Friday, one thing is certain: the $108 Brent price is the market's pricing for "negotiations are not dead." Compared to $126, the $17 gap is the world's most expensive breath of fresh air.