The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is in turmoil, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focused on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable information about the coin market to many coin friends. I welcome the attention and likes from all coin friends and reject any market smokescreens!   

Upon reaching the 80,000 mark, Lao Cui has finally cleared out the positions opened since March today. Time will eventually prove everything; to be frank, being bullish up to the 80,000 mark by the end of March was not planned to be so long-term. The initial plan was to exit by mid-April at most. The process is always tortuous, but the outcome is still within the plan. The market after 80,000 will become the next wave of trend predictions. Lao Cui's forecast will be based on the bearish sentiment in the market; exiting long positions will obviously be a bearish choice. The bearish factors on the medium-term level are very apparent, the primary one being the unresolved turmoil from military conflicts and geopolitics. This will lead to a medium-term capital shortage, especially as the surging inflation concerning crude oil has not yet transmitted to the financial market; full absorption will require some time. The second factor is Trump’s visit to China, which won’t resolve substantive issues and may likely lead to continued military conflicts due to this outcome. This needs to be observed from both parties' statements, but from the current scheduling, the shortening of the timeline indicates Trump's lack of confidence, making it highly unlikely to achieve strategies that could change the situation, so the expectations shouldn’t be too high.

The third factor is the performance of small coins. If one tries to find a regular pattern in the current growth, Lao Cui feels that the current increase increasingly resembles the initial break of the 100,000 mark, when it was attempting to reach 126,000, with narrow rises and large fluctuations. The ultimate outcome has historical references. Among the top ten coins, only DOGE has a significant rise, but this is also due to its prior drop; when it rises, it is also among the coins that dropped the most, which has little reference meaning. When the main funds can only focus on pulling up Bitcoin, it more clearly reflects the lack of capital strength. Bitcoin’s rise can barely match the increase in U.S. stocks, which does not align with the patterns in the coin circle. The previous pattern saw a drop from 126,000 down to 98,000, then from 98,000 down to 60,000. Lao Cui does not foresee such a deep drop this time; at least a drop of around 5,000 points can be accomplished. Being bullish at this stage is somewhat risky; even doing nothing is safer than being bullish. For users holding physical assets, do not chase the increase; otherwise, you will be trapped with no one able to resolve it. Focus on physical assets!

So in terms of medium-term fluctuations, Lao Cui does not want to simply define Bitcoin as the arrival of a bull market; of course, the long-term increases are undeniable. But at this stage, Lao Cui is still thinking from the perspective of contract users on how to expand profits amid current fluctuations. To define a medium-term level drop, it is necessary to clarify one of the points we previously emphasized: the turnover of the giants determines the profits of retail investors. We must clearly and accurately recognize that since Bitcoin was listed, market fluctuations are no longer dominated by emotions. Bitcoin is no longer a high-risk investment that can be halved due to certain specific sanctions. This is the core factor supporting Lao Cui's firm belief that 60,000 is a new low. If this holds true, it indirectly indicates that Bitcoin's upward trend this year can only be based on recovery. While the lower limit is high, the upper limit will not be too high either. Being able to recover to 126,000 would already be a success for Bitcoin this year; Lao Cui still expects new highs this year.

As for the so-called 150,000, with the current market capital level and strategy support at this stage, such a high position cannot be seen. Lao Cui's view this year remains between 130,000 to 150,000. Briefly discussing coins like Ethereum and SOL, these types differ from Bitcoin; they need a short-term narrative to achieve new breakthroughs. The definition of the lower limit is too low while the upper limit is also very high, categorizing them as high-risk investments. For instance, Trump's issuance of Trump Coin could directly drive SOL's rise to historically high levels, even saying it brings good news that could short-term break the cycle attributes of the coin market, with a target of 295 that may be a trend requiring effort to recover over the next three years. Even if the current data on the SOL chain is nearly achieving the top among small coins, and the issuance of stablecoins is continuously reaching new highs, its unit price has not moved forward; such fundamental issues have become very evident, showing insufficient stability, and will need further optimization.

The fortunate thing is that the efficiency of the SOL founding team is indeed very high, whether in terms of quantum computing resistance, breakthrough speed, or the stability of this update, it has consistently been at the forefront of small coins. As long as the actions towards optimization continue, the narrative of this coin will not be short of material. If it can solve stability issues, it can accommodate large amounts of capital. Its future will ultimately only need time to prove itself. As for Ethereum, no more need to elaborate, it has been present in every round of bull markets. Currently, as Bitcoin breaks 80,000, Ethereum is still on the rise. Although its increase is not as substantial as Bitcoin’s, the trend of following up has not seen significant issues. As long as contracts remain, all of you are here, Ethereum will continue to survive in the market. The only point of concern is that it is not limited to a specific quantity for issuance, which indeed raises concern. Based on this, Lao Cui estimates that Ethereum's historical new high would likely range from 6,000 to 8,000, and stability will be challenging.

Since we’ve provided an ideal expectation for Ethereum, we might as well set an ideal price for SOL as well. It is quite challenging for SOL to break above the four-digit limit, being between 500 to 800 right now, as the issuance quantity is too large. Such historically significant price levels will definitely not be achieved in the short term; it may even take 3 to 5 years to reach them, while in 5 to 10 years, you will definitely see these prices. The application of blockchain technology, whether in trends or current layouts, has not shown significant deviation. Currently, the application of cryptocurrency only presents monetary and financial attributes; projects like the metaverse and VR that were previously trumpeted have essentially failed, indicating issues in the direction of application. The development of a technology inevitably encounters forks in the road, and Lao Cui's investments have also been influenced greatly. In the era when investing in Nvidia would have been most prudent, heavily investing in META has now turned into a failed choice.

Having explained the thought process at length, we will now focus more on the methods of contracts on the medium-term level. In the previous round, we became bullish when Bitcoin hit 65,000, extending to the current achievement of 80,000; that previous round's medium-term perspective has already ended. Regarding the next wave's movement, Lao Cui has exited the long positions on contracts and shifted to short. The medium-term target for execution is certainly to exit near 75. Whether this can be achieved mainly hinges on the factors discussed in the first section—between 90,000 and 75,000 on the medium-term level, Lao Cui will definitely choose 75,000. The reason is quite simple: the lack of capital connection is insufficient to support the subsequent upward trend. Whether this thinking can be validated will depend on the recovery rate above the 80,000 mark this week. If any of you wants to play short-term contracts, short positions can maintain profits between 500 to 1,000 points and can be executed at any time. If anyone wants to stay in sync with Lao Cui, you will need to observe the current peak position. As long as it stabilizes within the range of 82,000 to 83,500, then the downward trend can be achieved.

Lao Cui summarizes: Currently, the choice of going short is not very stable. The core observation still needs to be based on short-term spikes, with 80,000 being bearish; Lao Cui will certainly execute and has already entered the market at this stage. It depends on each individual's choice; Lao Cui's earlier investment was based on earlier profits, initially entering with ten bitcoins. Today's profit-taking involves half of the previous position, that is, five bitcoins. If there is an upward trend in the future, Lao Cui will choose to add to the position at the above levels. Due to holding physical assets, there is no consideration of long positions in the short term. If all goes well, the personal acceptance would be to not add to the position as five bitcoins drop to the 75,000 mark. For a more prudent method of managing medium-term contracts, it would be best to make decisions after Trump's visit to China. Currently, Lao Cui's market entry is merely a bet on the results of the visit, and nothing more. At the end of the article, I wish all of you the ability to realize your value in your cryptocurrency investment journey. Should there be any uncertainties, feel free to consult Lao Cui directly.

Original creation, WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks Crypto. For assistance, feel free to contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five steps, seven steps, or even ten or more steps ahead, while those with poor skills can only see two or three steps. The skilled consider the big picture and plan the trends, not fixating on individual pieces or small territories but aiming to win the game in the end. The less skilled, however, fight for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions for immediate short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Transactions based on this are at your own risk!

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