Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.54 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.9%, which is $1.52 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $319.8 billion, decreasing by 0.38% in the past 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 59.25%.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most have declined while a few have risen, specifically: BTC dropped by 1.67% in 7 days, ETH fell by 2.07% in 7 days, SOL decreased by 2.61% in 7 days, LUNC increased by 61.14% in 7 days, and H rose by 28.81% in 7 days.
This week, the net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $162.8 million; the net outflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $82.7 million.
Market Predictions (May 4 - May 10):
The RSI index is 45.36 (neutral, lower than last week), the Fear and Greed index is 28 (fear), and the Altcoin Season index is 38 (neutral).
BTC: $79,000-82,500 (bullish bias, need to validate the breakout validity)
ETH: $2,320-2,420 (neutral to bullish, follow BTC)
SOL: $84-88 (neutral to bearish, waiting for directional breakout)
In the coming week, the market will play between “macro headwinds” and “value support”. Considering that the market just experienced the FOMC shock from April 30 to May 1, next week is likely to focus on oscillating recovery, with the latter half of the week’s trend dependent on whether ETF capital flows improve.
Risk Warning
Non-farm data risk: If the non-farm data on Friday exceeds expectations, it may lead to the market giving back this week's gains.
$80k option pressure: Approximately $1.5 billion in call options exist at this price level, market makers may engage in hedging operations.
ETH continued weakness: If the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, it could become a leading signal for market correction.
Profit-taking after rapid increases: BTC has rebounded over 20% since the April low, accumulating significant short-term profit-taking.
Understanding Now
Geopolitical "Double-Edged Sword": Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000, then rapidly declined
This week's core narrative revolves around the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. On Monday (April 27), as the U.S.-Iran standoff intensified and institutional buying warmed up, Bitcoin rose by 1.6% to $79,488, reaching a 12-week high since the end of January, with investors viewing it as "digital gold" for hedging. However, the good times were short-lived; as Iran proposed a new plan, U.S. negotiations hit a stalemate, and the Trump administration expressed dissatisfaction with the proposal, risk appetite sharply compressed. By Tuesday (April 28), Bitcoin had fallen below $77,000, leading to nearly 80,000 liquidations.
Fed "Hawk Claw" Raids: Rate unchanged but rhetoric is tough, market evaporates hundreds of billions in one day
On April 30 at midnight Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, meeting expectations. However, the statement abandoned the "somewhat elevated" inflation description in favor of "elevated," sending a strong hawkish signal. Coupled with Powell's hawkish remarks, the crypto market plunged instantly. Data shows that before and after the FOMC meeting, the total amount of liquidations across the network surged to $565 million, with longs losing as much as $370 million. Market analysts generally believe that expectations of tightening liquidity have cut off the bull market fantasy.
Visa Strategic Bet: Polygon becomes the core of global stablecoin settlement
Despite the market macro outlook being bearish, the pace of adoption by traditional financial institutions has not slowed. On April 29, payment giant Visa announced it would officially include the Polygon network in its global stablecoin settlement program. Data shows that Polygon currently handles 54% of global USDC transfer volume and 36% of USDC transaction volume. Visa's settlement program has reached an annualized operating scale of $7 billion this quarter, with Polygon defeating numerous competitors including BNB Chain due to its low fees (sub-cent level) and high speed (4 seconds finality).
Regulatory Milestone Shift: SEC and CFTC join forces to create framework, farewell to "regulatory enforcement"
This week saw a significant positive development in regulation. Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reiterated the promotion of "Project Crypto," announcing cooperation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to create a digital asset classification framework, clarifying tokens' securities attributes, and launching an "innovation exemption" to support on-chain transactions. The market widely believes this signifies the U.S. regulatory agencies' official abandonment of the previous Biden-era "regulation through enforcement" model, shifting towards clear rule-making and clearing obstacles for large-scale institutional capital entry.
Celsius Founder Ends in Tragedy: Pays $10 million, banned for life
The legal liquidation of the collapsed project reached a landmark result this week. Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky reached a settlement with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), agreeing to pay $10 million and receiving a permanent ban on promoting, marketing, or distributing any products and services related to cryptocurrencies. The court also ruled a $4.72 billion fine, which will be immediately enforced if he is found to have concealed assets. Prior to this, he had been sentenced to 12 years in prison for fraud.
MoonPay Transforms into Institutional Services: $100 million acquisition and recruiting former CFTC chairman
Cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company MoonPay took a key step this week, announcing a $100 million acquisition of Israeli security company Sodot and establishing a new department, "MoonPay Institutional," as a basis. More notably, former Acting Chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Caroline D. Pham will lead this department. This indicates that MoonPay is aggressively entering the compliance service market for traditional financial institutions providing trading, tokenized securities, and wallet management.
Ethereum Foundation "Hoarding" Movement: Unstaked nearly $49 million ETH
On-chain analytics platform Arkham has monitored that the Ethereum Foundation unstaked approximately $48.9 million worth of ETH this week. This action has sparked wide attention and speculation in the market—will the foundation sell these ETH as it has in the past to pay for operational costs? The market is currently closely observing subsequent transfer movements, any large-scale sell-off could put further pressure on the somewhat weak ETH price.
Central Bank Involvement: The Czech Republic promotes bitcoin reserve strategy
At the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, Czech National Bank Governor Ales Michl delivered a historic keynote speech, publicly advocating for the inclusion of bitcoin in the central bank's reserves. He revealed that the bank manages approximately $180 billion in reserves, with internal research showing that allocating just 1% to bitcoin could enhance expected returns without significantly increasing overall risk. The Czech National Bank completed its first test purchase of bitcoin in November 2025, becoming the world's first central bank to hold bitcoin.
Major Donations and AI Infrastructure: The crypto power behind the new White House banquet hall
Fortune magazine revealed this week the donor list for the construction project of the new White House banquet hall, with prominent figures from the tech and crypto industry notably present. In addition to Meta, Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Ripple, Tether, and the Winklevoss brothers also appear on the list. Meanwhile, former Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal's AI infrastructure company, Parallel Web Systems, has completed a $100 million Series B financing round, with a valuation of $2 billion, indicating that the intersection of AI and crypto infrastructure remains a capital hotspot.
Macroeconomics
On April 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending April 25 was 189,000, expected to be 215,000.
On April 30, the Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
On April 30, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, consistent with market expectations. According to the Fed rate watch, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged in June is 98.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.4%.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 27 to May 1, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $162.8 million; as of May 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.201 billion, currently holding $11.821 billion while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $63.578 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $104.604 billion.
Net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETF: $8.27 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
Consensus Miami 2026 will be held from May 5 to 7 in Miami, USA.
Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from June 2 to 3 in Turkey.
Project Progress
ZKsync Lite will completely shut down on May 4, including halting block production and permanently freezing the final state of the network to ensure that balances do not change after closure. ZKsync advises users to withdraw their funds before this date for a better experience. Assets not withdrawn before the deadline can still be fully claimed, but the claiming tool will be released immediately after block production stops. Additionally, a read-only API will remain available for at least one year after shutdown.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will launch new futures contracts for Avalanche and Sui.
Important Events
On May 7 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2 (in thousands).
On May 8 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the unemployment rate for April.
On May 8 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the non-farm payrolls for April (in thousands).
Token Unlocks
BounceBit (BB) will unlock 29.7 million tokens on May 8, valued at approximately $1.01 million, accounting for 2.68% of the circulating supply.
Space and Time (SXT) will unlock 3.97 billion tokens on May 8, valued at approximately $5.96 million, accounting for 23.2% of the circulating supply.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 160 million tokens on May 9, valued at approximately $2.89 million, accounting for 4.69% of the circulating supply.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 133 million tokens on May 10, valued at approximately $2.66 million, accounting for 7.86% of the circulating supply.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 13.88 billion tokens on May 10, valued at approximately $4.86 million, accounting for 5.05% of the circulating supply.
io.net (IO) will unlock 13.3 million tokens on May 11, valued at approximately $1.57 million, accounting for 3.95% of the circulating supply.
Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 26.9 million tokens on May 11, valued at approximately $2.26 million, accounting for 7.26% of the circulating supply.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on May 12, valued at approximately $15.08 million, accounting for 0.31% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as a core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for you. We analyze market trends through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; with our exclusive column "Hot Coins Selection" (AI + expert double screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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