Every day watching the events between the United States and Iran truly makes me feel mentally and physically exhausted; this is the tug-of-war in politics. I also blame my poor understanding of politics since middle school, but as I said, although the United States sank 7 Iranian fast boats yesterday, Iran only expressed condemnation and did not escalate the conflict against the United States. It seems both sides are indeed trying to avoid a full-scale war, but this also makes the peace talks between the United States and Iran very difficult.
Next, the fluctuations in oil prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz may become more frequent, which benefits neither side. The ongoing blockade by the United States has significantly damaged Iran's finances, while the rise in WTI has increased oil prices in the United States. The market worries about rising inflation and the increasing probability of economic recession, which is also a burden for Trump, who is eager to lower interest rates.
So, I have a feeling, is it possible that Trump and Iran could achieve smooth operations in the Strait of Hormuz first, and then come down to resolve the nuclear issue? However, if Iran does not manage the Strait of Hormuz, it will lose a trump card, and its confidence in dialogue with the United States may not be very strong. But if this situation continues, Iran's economy will also fall into trouble, and it should be noted that most regions in Iran are still in a state of internet blackout.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, it is still following the U.S. stock market and continuing to rise. The chip structure is very normal. Although the turnover rate starts to rise on weekdays, that is also normal. Simply looking at the indicators of $BTC does not show any risks at the moment. My personal view is that Bitcoin is following the U.S. stock market and the pace of the U.S. economy and macroeconomics, which is the current major trend.
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