Author: TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Recovering Monday's Losses on Tuesday, AMD Sets off a Big Firework After Hours

On Tuesday (May 5), the market fully climbed back from Monday's missile assaults.

The S&P 500 rose about 0.6%, the Nasdaq gained about 0.9%, and the Dow Jones increased by about 0.55%, with all three major indices rebounding, essentially erasing Monday's losses. The impetus came from two directions: a cooling of battlefield news and AMD's after-hours showing the most impressive semiconductor report of this earnings season.

The de-escalation of the battlefield news largely stemmed from Trump's change in tone. On Tuesday afternoon, Trump announced the suspension of the previously announced "guiding ships through Hormuz" plan, citing "progress in negotiations." He also vaguely confirmed to reporters at the White House that Iran had "made a call." No details, no timeline, but it was enough for the market; Brent fell from $114 back to $112, and WTI dropped from $106 to $104, leading to a market rebound.

Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth also said something convoluted but clear during an interview on Tuesday: "Hormuz is more important to other countries than to the United States; that waterway ultimately needs American leadership to ensure its security." Implicitly, the U.S. is not in a hurry but also will not let the issue hang indefinitely.

Major stock happenings occurred after the close.

Palantir (PLTR): Announced Q1 earnings after hours on Monday, reporting record revenue and raising its full-year guidance. The stock price fell 6.59% on Tuesday. The reason is simple: the company's valuation has long anticipated a perfect script, and even slight outperformance is insufficient. When everyone in the market already believes you will win, winning is merely "in line with expectations." This is the new fate of overvalued tech stocks in 2026.

Shopify (SHOP): Revenue exceeded expectations but fell about 10%. The narrative of AI threats hanging over software companies has become a burden on every SaaS company; no matter how good the numbers are, they must first explain "will you be disrupted by AI" to secure buyers.

Then comes the main event.

AMD After Hours: EPS of $1.37, surpassing the expected $1.29 by 9.6%. Revenue of $1.025 billion, exceeding the expected $989 million. Q2 guidance of $1.12 billion, greatly surpassing market expectations. The stock price jumped about 15% after hours.

The most crucial line in this report is the Q2 guidance, not the Q1 performance itself; AI chip demand has not only not slowed down but is accelerating. AMD's MI300X series AI GPU is capturing an increasing number of data center procurement orders, especially against the backdrop of limited capacity of NVIDIA's H100/H200. In the earnings call, CEO Lisa Su clearly stated that super big customers' demand for AI computing power "is still in the very early stages." The 15% rise after hours implies a collective market acknowledgment: the chip cycle has not yet peaked.

On the same day, the Commerce Department announced that Microsoft, Google, and Musk's xAI had agreed to provide their top AI models to the U.S. government for safety testing and research, coordinated by the AI Standards and Innovation Center under the Commerce Department. This is the first concrete advancement in the U.S. government's AI regulatory framework in the context of war, marking a preliminary line between military AI and commercial AI on the document level.

The most absurd news of the week: GameStop plans to buy eBay for $56 billion.

Among all market news, this one deserves a separate mention.

GameStop (GME) announced plans to acquire the online second-hand trading platform eBay for about $56 billion in cash and stock.

The stock price fell 10% on Monday. Analysts shared a unified voice this week: this is a terrible idea. GameStop has about $4.6 billion in cash, which is several magnitudes away from the $56 billion offer. The company's quarterly revenue is less than $300 million, while it wants to acquire a company worth over $20 billion. To complete this deal, it would either have to dilute shares massively or go heavily into debt, but given the current 4.4% yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and tightening credit conditions, the financial market will not generously issue that check.

Two analysts from BNN Bloomberg noted the same thing: "A combination of Shopify and eBay might make sense, but GameStop buying eBay does not work. GameStop should distribute money to shareholders."

Yet GameStop is still alive and is reminding the market of this $56 billion offer, which in itself is the last value of this company's existence.

Oil Prices and Gold: After the $114 Peak, the Market Recalibrates "The Real Bottom Price of War"

On Monday, Brent reached $114.44, the second highest price in this round of the Iranian conflict, only after $126 (April 29).

However, the market digested it within two days. On Tuesday, as Trump suspended the "guiding ships" plan, Brent fell back to around $112, and WTI dropped to $104.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said something worth repeating at the Milken Global Conference: "It's not just about the price. I think in the coming weeks, we will see fuel shortages beginning to manifest in certain regions of the world. It's not a price issue; it's a matter of 'can we get the goods'." He further stated that even if the strait eventually reopens, normal exports will still take months, requiring minesweeping and redeploying hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.

This statement reframed market expectations regarding the timeline. It’s not a matter of "if a deal is reached, oil prices will return to $70", but rather "even with a deal, it will take months to truly normalize supply." This understanding is becoming a structural support for oil prices to stay above $100.

Gold saw slight strength on Tuesday around $4,625-4,640, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond experienced a mild retreat from a peak of 4.34% on Monday to about 4.38%.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Breaks $80,000 for the First Time in Three Months, This Time Not Just Shouting

On May 5, Bitcoin broke $80,000, reaching $81,000 during the day and finally stabilizing around $80,500-80,740. This is the first time Bitcoin has returned to this price level since the crash in October 2025.

This time there were no grand speeches, no presidential candidates shouting prices.

Three events drove this breakthrough simultaneously:

First, April ETF inflows hit an annual record high. Data from CoinGecko and SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows in April were about $244 million, the highest for any month this year, marking a comeback in institutional buying since the low point in Q1 (around $62,000). BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, and ARK Invest ARKB accounted for most of the inflows.

Second, shorts were squeezed. A large number of short positions accumulated around $78,000-79,000; as prices broke upward, a chain of forced liquidations occurred, eliminating billions in short positions within hours, further pushing up the price.

Third, anomalous signals from the battlefield. On Monday, when an Iranian missile hit an oil port in the UAE and Brent soared to $114, Bitcoin chose to rise instead of fall. This behavior fundamentally changed analysts' qualitative outlook on Bitcoin: it is no longer following a single logic of "it rises when risk sentiment improves," but is simultaneously supported by both "erosion of dollar credit" and "hedging against war inflation." FinanceMagnates cited analysts from LMAX Group’s judgment: "This rise is structurally driven by spot demand, not leveraged, with funding rates remaining neutral, meaning this is not the maneuver of speculators, but real buying."

The Consensus 2026 Conference opened concurrently in Miami, gathering thousands of industry participants, providing an emotional backdrop. However, unlike last week's Las Vegas conference’s "shouting prices without action," this time prices acted first, and the conference was merely a follow-up.

Now Bitcoin faces $82,228, which is its 200-day moving average and is also the level it has not successfully closed above since the October peak decline. Breaking through it would represent a true technical trend reversal; failing to maintain it would mean $75,000 becoming the lower boundary again.

Today’s Summary: War Hit $114, AMD Hit 15%, Bitcoin Broke $80K

From May 4 to May 5, the market underwent too much in one go.

U.S. Stocks: On Monday, the Dow fell 557 points (Iranian missile strikes UAE), but rebounded fully on Tuesday, with all three major indices back in the green. AMD’s after-hours Q1 EPS of $1.37 far exceeded expectations, with Q2 guidance of $1.12 billion blowing past estimates, jumping 15% after hours, which is the most significant earnings signal of the week so far, indicating that the chip cycle has not peaked. Palantir and Shopify "exceeding expectations yet falling" continue to showcase the new market logic for overvalued stocks. GameStop proposed a $56 billion acquisition of eBay, falling 10% on Monday, leaving analysts confused.

Oil Prices: Brent rose to $114.44 on Monday (the peak of this round), then retreated to $112.90 on Tuesday, with WTI falling to $104.10. Trump announced the suspension of the guiding ships plan, but negotiations showed no substantial progress. Chevron CEO pointed out: even if the strait reopens, normalizing supply will still take months.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin broke $80,000, touching $81,000 during the day, reaching a three-month high. April ETF net inflows of $244 million were the strongest of the year, with a squeeze on shorts and spot buying driving the upward momentum, and the battlefield's contrarian rise shifted market perception of BTC's role. The next key level is $82,228 (200-day moving average); surpassing it would mark a significant move out of the shadows of the past seven months.

The market currently only cares about one thing: AMD's 15% after-hours gain, how much of it can be realized at the opening tomorrow?

If AMD's after-hours gains can smoothly transition into official intraday performance, along with Trump's softening stance towards Iran, the Nasdaq may aim for 25,500. However, the air above 25,000 is thinner than before; this is uncharted historical territory with no reference points for each step.

At least today, one thing has been confirmed: Bitcoin climbed back from $62,000 to $81,000 in two months, outperforming gold, the S&P, and all those who said it would fare worse in February. Those shouting "Bitcoin should drop" at an oil price of $126 owe the market an explanation.