Written by: Clow

On April 29, the interest rates remained unchanged.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. No rate cuts, no rate increases, the outcome was completely in line with expectations.

But what the market heard was not "holding steady."

What it heard was: inflation is still high, oil prices are still volatile, tariff impacts have not yet been digested, and there is a rising tension within the Federal Reserve, with Powell not planning to leave the stage immediately.

This is Powell's last press conference as chairman, and it’s the first time the market sees this mess before Kevin Walsh potentially takes over.

For the crypto world, the real issue is not whether Powell stays or goes.

It’s whether money is still cheap.

Interest rates stayed put, but money has run away.

Before the meeting, Bitcoin was still hovering around $77,000. It’s not strong, yet not weak either, considering it was around $65,000 at the beginning of April.

The market originally wanted to trade a familiar script: the Fed pauses first, then leaves the door open for rate cuts, and stocks and crypto assets continue to climb. But the door didn’t close, yet a line of security guards stood at the entrance.

Powell said that monetary policy does not have a preset path and needs to consider data, outlook, and risk balance going forward. Translated into plain language: don’t rush to write rate cuts into the price charts.

The spot Bitcoin ETF funds reacted first.

According to SoSoValue data, on April 28, there was a net outflow of $89.6754 million from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. By April 29, Eastern Time, the net outflow expanded to about $138 million, marking three consecutive days of outflows.

This is not an epic crash, but the signal is clear: institutions are unwilling to continue to leverage during the Fed transition, high inflation turnaround, and rising oil prices.

Such funds rarely turn 180 degrees because of a single statement, but they will first slow down. Especially when the macro outlook hasn’t provided clear direction, buying less is an attitude.

Bitcoin is holding onto the $75,000 line, while Ethereum is testing around $2,300. Prices may not have collapsed yet, but funds have already started to pull back.

Four dissenting votes are worse than not lowering rates.

Superficially, this meeting had only one outcome: keeping interest rates unchanged.

8 votes in favor, 4 votes against. Stephen Miran wanted to cut rates by 25 basis points immediately; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported keeping rates unchanged but opposed the continued implications of easing in the statement.

One person thinks the cuts are too slow, while three think the language is too soft. This isn’t hawks and doves lining up on different sides; rather, everyone agrees that it's best not to act for now, but they are already starting to argue about where the next punch will land.

The Associated Press reported that this is the most dissenting votes since October 1992. In other words, even before Walsh has formally taken the podium, a divided committee is already in sight.

For stocks and crypto assets, this is more troublesome than simply “no rate cuts.” With interest rates held steady, inflation rising, and officials’ opinions not aligning, every inflation and employment report could rewrite market expectations.

What the market fears most is not hawks or doves, but not knowing who might suddenly jump in to change the script at the next meeting.

The crypto world excels at telling grand narratives, but prices often only respond to liquidity. When liquidity paths become a fog, even the most beautiful narrative will first be discounted.

The real cold water poured by Powell is inflation.

The U.S. unemployment rate in March was 4.3%, not much change; the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure was at 3.5% year-on-year, and core inflation was at 3.2% year-on-year. Both of these inflation figures are still above the Fed's 2% target.

On one hand, Middle Eastern conflicts are driving global oil prices higher, while tariffs continue to pass through to commodity prices. Powell mentioned that the Fed has always assumed that tariffs would result in a one-time price increase, which would fade over time, but it needs to be seen in the next two quarters if that truly happens.

His meaning is very straightforward: theoretically, central banks can penetrate short-term oil price shocks; in reality, the oil price shock has not yet finished, and inflation has already been above the target for several years, so now is not the time to close one’s eyes and cut rates.

When this statement hit the crypto world, it became another version:

Don’t take “pausing rate hikes” as “immediate liquidity.”

In the past few years, whenever there’s macro pain, the market starts to fantasize about rate cuts; whenever stocks and crypto drop, everyone imagines the Fed stepping in to save the day. But this time, inflation comes from oil prices and tariffs, and rate cuts might save asset prices but could also reignite inflation expectations.

Thus, it can only wait. For high-leverage markets, waiting is a form of punishment. As long as real interest rates do not come down, the cost of holding positions remains.

For the crypto world, this is more uncomfortable than just a “no rate cut.” Because it’s not acute pain; it’s continuing to tighten the very pipeline that the bull market craves.

Walsh is not the savior of the crypto world.

Many people interpret Kevin Walsh potentially taking over as a new positive signal for the crypto market. The reasoning is not without merit. He is believed to understand market signals better and has viewed Bitcoin as an important asset and policy pressure gauge. He opposed the Fed directly issuing digital dollars to ordinary people during the Senate hearing, which is not bad news for private stablecoins.

However, if you think Walsh will pop the champagne for the crypto world as soon as he arrives, that’s simplistic.

If Walsh ultimately takes over, what he receives is not a new machine but a dashboard that is already smoking: inflation is still high, oil price disruptions, tariffs haven't fully digested, and four dissenting votes are on the table.

More critically, Powell hasn’t truly left.

He made it clear that after his term as chairman ends on May 15, he will continue to serve for a time in a board member role. The AP report noted that this will be the first time since 1948 that a former Fed chair remains on the board as a board member.

This has two sides for Bitcoin. On one hand, the independence of the central bank being torn by political pressure may lead some to believe again in the significance of “non-sovereign assets.” On the other hand, narratives cannot pay your financing costs. If interest rates remain high and inflation continues to be sticky, what the market trades may not be a “crypto-savvy chair” but a “more unpredictable Fed.”

In other words, Walsh may bring a friendlier long-term outlook for the crypto world, but short-term pricing power still lies with inflation and interest rates.

This is very much like the crypto world.

The positives are real, but the negatives are also real.

The long-term door hasn’t closed.

The “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” has passed the House and is officially in transition to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. It attempts to redraw the regulatory line for U.S. crypto assets: allowing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to take on a more core role in crypto trading while retaining the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's authority over parts of issuance and trading processes.

Stablecoins have also entered more formal policy discussions. The White House Council of Economic Advisers reported on April 8 that based on standard assumptions, banning stablecoin earnings would only allow banks to issue $2.1 billion more in loans, which is about

0.02% of total loans, but users would miss out on about $800 million in benefits. Even using the most aggressive assumptions, expanding the stablecoin market to about six times its current size, the additional loans would only be $531 billion, which corresponds to a 4.4% increase in bank loans.

These are all long-term positives. But in the short term, all stories must first pass through the Fed's scrutiny.

Powell last stood on the podium without leaving the market with a nice closing statement.

What he left behind is a more realistic question: When the crypto market is finally about to be caught by the system, can it first endure a period of more expensive money?

The money hasn't gone far, it's just become expensive.

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