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4.29% Lockup Threshold: Structural Contraction of ETH Supply Function

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Techub News
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2 hours ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

Written by: Fang Dao

Bitmine holds 5.18 million ETH, accounting for

4.29% of the total supply. This scale no longer falls within the realm of "holding disclosure," but has a substantial impact on the supply structure itself. When a single entity approaches the 5% holding range, the circulating attribute of the asset begins to show directional shifts.

The supply function is shifting from "total volume pricing" to "circulating pricing." In Bitmine's holding structure, approximately 4.36 million ETH is locked in the staking system, with liquidity originally expected to enter the secondary market converted into long-term yield positions. The effective supply in the market is no longer equivalent to the total volume, but depends on the scale of marginally tradable chips. Within this framework, the price sensitivity to new demand shows a nonlinear increase, and the contraction of supply itself has become a source of price elasticity.

The reconstruction of holding behavior due to staking yields further compresses the circulating space. Approximately

2.9% annualized return shifts ETH from a single price speculation asset to a cash flow-oriented allocation tool. When yields can cover part of the volatility costs, the turnover motivation of holders naturally declines, and the release of supply shifts from passive selling to active deferral. The market thus enters a state of low liquidity and high elasticity coexisting.

The infrastructuralization of assets is forming a more long-term anchoring on liquidity. MAVAN, as an institutional-grade verification network, makes large-scale holdings no longer isolated asset allocation behaviors, but embedded in the on-chain service system. Holding, verification, and yield logic form a closed loop, with ETH gradually transforming from a trading target to the collateral underpinning on-chain finance, where its liquidity is no longer entirely determined by market willingness.

Under the condition of structurally locked supply, the authority of price determination is shifting towards the marginal demand side. However, this shift is not unidirectional. When demand fails to expand simultaneously, the contraction of supply does not lead to a trending upward but rather amplifies volatility elasticity.

The current ETH pricing is no longer a simple matching of supply and demand, but a dynamic game between circulating structure and demand intensity.

References

Bitmine Immersion Technologies: Ethereum Treasury and Staking Disclosure 2026 Ethereum Foundation: Network Supply and Staking Data Benzinga: Institutional ETH Accumulation and Staking Yield Analysis Glassnode: On-chain Supply Dynamics and Liquid Supply Metrics

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