What to know : Global risk assets rallied and oil prices slumped after reports of progress toward a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. Bitcoin climbed toward $82,000 alongside a more than 1% rise in Nasdaq futures, while WTI crude futures fell about 6 percent to $95.28 a barrel. Hopes that a deal could normalize oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment, though some analysts remain skeptical that Iran will make lasting nuclear concessions.
Risk assets rallied across the globe and oil crashed during Monday's European hours as reports of progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks boosted risk sentiment.
Bitcoin extended Asian gains to trade close to $82,000 during the European hours, as futures tied to Wall Street's tech heavy index Nasdaq rose over 1%. Futures tied to WTI crude oil fell 6% to $95.28 per barrel.
The move followed an Axios report that Washington and Tehran are close to a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. The draft agreement is said to include negotiations between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian officials, conducted both directly and through intermediaries.
The report raised hopes for the normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has reportedly been mined by Iranian forces. The disrupted flows since late February have wreaked havoc in energy markets across the world, especially in Asia.
According to the report, Iran would agree to remove highly enriched uranium from the country, a long-standing U.S. demand that Tehran has previously resisted. However, some market participants questioned the likelihood of a durable breakthrough, particularly around nuclear concessions.
“I’m a bit skeptical on the final point about Iran ceding ground on the nuclear front. But we’ll have to wait and see I guess,” ForexLive’s currency analyst Justin Low said.
Still, the prospect of de-escalation was enough to trigger a broad shift in positioning, with traders moving into risk assets and out of energy exposure on expectations of reduced geopolitical friction.
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