This morning I suddenly saw that the United States has taken action against Iran. Although there were previous incidents of sinking 6 speedboats, this time the action is clearly of a higher level. Of course, even though action has been taken, both the U.S. and Iran are still very restrained, especially since Trump stated this is still within a ceasefire agreement, indicating that such action is just limited in scope, and Iran, which has always sought to be strong, did not immediately choose to escalate fully but rather maintained a tough stance verbally while leaving room for action.

This actually shows that neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to push the situation to a point of complete uncontrollability. What the United States wants is to apply pressure and force Iran to accept conditions, rather than starting a full-scale war immediately. What Iran wants is to assert its position and prove that it has not completely backed down, but it also knows that if the conflict escalates to an uncontrollable level, it would be more detrimental to itself.

For the risk market, this kind of situation is actually the most uncomfortable. Because as long as there is no real complete loss of control, risk aversion sentiments will gradually decline. But as long as the U.S. and Iran continue small-scale exchanges of fire, risk assets including crude oil, gold, and Bitcoin will be repeatedly affected by emotional fluctuations. Especially crude oil, where what really determines the price is no longer just whether there has been action, but whether the passage expectations in the Strait of Hormuz can stabilize and recover.

Moreover, the most troublesome part is that during the weekend, the funding rate for CLUSDT will be relatively high, and if WTI continues to oscillate at high levels, the ones suffering will be short-selling investors. Personally, I exited around $96 this morning and then re-entered a small short position at $97, mainly to avoid the weekend funding rates, but if Binance rectifies this issue, I can add back at any time.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, it is still as previously mentioned, the factors influencing the price change of $BTC are almost unrelated to Bitcoin itself but more related to the war issues between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Whether these two issues can be resolved quickly primarily affects whether the U.S. will cut interest rates in 2026.

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