What to know : Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, argues that bitcoin bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year and is now on track to surpass its prior high and reach $126,000. He says a break above $90,000 could trigger an “explosive” rally as call-option sellers are forced to buy bitcoin, and he ties the broader bull case to inflationary spending on AI infrastructure and war-related costs. Hayes discloses Maelstrom positions in HYPE and ZEC and a growing bet on NEAR, while warning that an overhyped AI IPO or a successful anti-AI political platform in the U.S. could end the crypto rally.
Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer of crypto-focused venture capital and investment fund Maelstrom, said the bull market is back and he is not waiting for confirmation.
Bitcoin found a bottom at $60,000 earlier this year, and retaking its October 2025 record of $126,000 is a "foregone conclusion," Hayes wrote in a Substack essay on Monday. The largest cryptocurrency briefly rose above $82,000 on Tuesday and recently traded around $80,600. A return to the high from current levels would be a gain of about 55%.
Hayes, who also co-founded the BitMEX exchange, flagged $90,000 as the level where the rally turns explosive. At that point, writers of call options with higher strike prices would be forced to buy bitcoin to cover their positions, accelerating the advance. Call option writers are betting that the price will not rise above a certain level; buyers are betting that it will.
Hayes pointed to two tailwinds behind his targets.
The first is capital expenditure on AI, which, he said, has shifted from being funded by cash flow at the largest software companies to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. He flagged the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China loosening financial conditions to support the buildout, with Chinese banks specifically redirecting capital from real estate toward tech.
The second tailwind is the U.S.-Iran war, which has forced sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodities rather than save in dollar assets.
"Higher for longer" is how Hayes framed the inflationary impact of the two combined.
War is inflationary, the AI buildout is inflationary, and the political will to print money to fund both is what produces the environment for bitcoin to outperform, he wrote. He pointed to bitcoin's performance against the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF and gold since the start of the war on Feb. 28 as evidence that the asset has already begun pricing the shift.
Hayes also disclosed Maelstrom's altcoin positioning. The fund holds large positions in Hyperliquid's HYPE token and Zcash's ZEC, with NEAR identified as the next pick. The NEAR thesis, which he said he will explain in a follow-up essay, rests on the combination of the privacy narrative and the protocol's intents-based architecture creating a positive cash flow.
"This will flip the script on the disastrous price performance of the token," Hayes wrote.
Hayes also flagged two scenarios that would end the rally. The first is an irresponsible mega-AI IPO or merger in the U.S. or China that the market cannot absorb, snapping investors out of the manic phase.
The second occurs if the Democratic challenger in the 2028 U.S. presidential election runs on an anti-AI platform that promises to curtail the capex buildout, with the popularity of that message forcing lenders to reconsider whether credit keeps flowing to the sector.
The November 2026 mid-term elections could be a "slight speed bump" before then.
"It's a bull market; close your eyes and press the button," Hayes wrote. "There will be a time to sell, but it ain't right now."
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