Original author: Billy Bambrough, Forbes

Original translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Since the United States went to war with Iran, Bitcoin has surged by 30% (two substantial shocks are currently headed towards Bitcoin's price).

However, Bitcoin's price is still far from the historical peak of $126,000 in 2025, even though U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has stated that China is secretly hoarding Bitcoin.

Now, as traders prepare for the "upcoming" big moves in Bitcoin from the White House, legendary billionaire Ray Dalio warns that the U.S. dollar is on the brink of collapse—meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predict that funds will rotate massively from gold to Bitcoin.

The U.S. dollar is experiencing continuous devaluation, and some worry that this may escalate into a full-blown collapse—thereby boosting the prices of gold and Bitcoin.

"The U.S. is spending $7 trillion a year, with revenues of about $5 trillion, therefore spending is 40% more than revenues," Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said during an interview on The New York Times' "Interesting Times" podcast.

"This deficit has been ongoing for some time, so its debt is about six times its revenue. Historically, this situation has led to problems."

Updated May 11: Following reports that U.S. national debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, Mark Goldwyn, senior vice president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned that the U.S. is entering a debt spiral.

"When this happens, at some point, you get trapped in this debt spiral," Goldwyn told The New York Times. "The only way to stop it is through some form of systemic shock."

Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) disclosed last week that the U.S. Treasury has paid $628 billion in net interest for debt service this year.

"Net interest spending on public debt increased by $41 billion (or 7%) because the size of the debt is larger than it was in the first seven months of fiscal year 2025, and long-term interest rates are higher. A decrease in short-term rates somewhat eased the overall growth in interest payments," the CBO stated.

Gold prices dipped to $4,000 per ounce in April but have recently rebounded, with analysts pointing to inflationary pressures and the debt spiral as reasons driving its rise.

"High inflation, growing sovereign debt, and ongoing global uncertainty continue to enhance gold's appeal. The market does not need new catalysts—the existing catalysts have always been present," said Max Baecker, president of American Hartford Gold (AHG), in comments via email.

In recent years, U.S. debt has skyrocketed due to massive government spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, while rapid interest rate hikes to contain inflation have further increased the debt servicing costs of the $39 trillion debt pile.

"So when we look back in history, we see that in all such periods, all fiat currencies depreciate while gold rises," Dalio said, noting that gold is currently the "second-largest reserve currency for central banks."

When asked if the economy is heading toward "crisis and collapse," Dalio stated that the upcoming "financial crisis will mean very limited spending capability," adding that he "doesn't believe any fiat currency will be an effective store of wealth."

Dalio's warnings coincide with views from Wall Street giant JPMorgan's analysts, who believe that "devaluation trades are rotating from gold to Bitcoin."

Gold prices have doubled over the past two years, rising alongside silver as traders bet that ongoing inflation and the Federal Reserve's money printing will devalue and dilute the dollar.

In a report seen by The Block, JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that they see Bitcoin (referred to as "digital gold" due to its supply cap and immutability) surpassing gold as a devaluation trade tool after the Iranian conflict, as inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceed those into gold ETFs.

In March of this year, another billionaire investor, Stanley Druckenmiller, predicted that 50 years from now the dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency—possibly replaced by Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

"We are doing everything we can to destroy it," Druckenmiller said, possibly referring to the soaring U.S. budget deficit, which he previously described as a "debt bomb." The dollar "may outlive me, but I doubt it will still be a reserve currency 50 years from now."

Druckenmiller called the dollar the "cleanest dirty shirt," and stated he doesn't know what might replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency, but it could be "some form of crypto thing I hate," consistent with his predictions made in 2021.

Additionally, Tesla billionaire Elon Musk has also predicted the end of the dollar on multiple occasions, sparking speculation that he is preparing for significant moves in Bitcoin.

Musk warned that the world is heading toward a post-fiat currency era and claimed that "energy is the real currency," raising speculation among Bitcoin supporters that he is quietly endorsing cryptocurrency.

Meanwhile, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned that U.S. President Donald Trump may be pushing the dollar toward "hyperinflation"—an outcome some believe could trigger Bitcoin's price.

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