U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bled $630.4 million on Wednesday, the worst single-day outflow in over three months, as back-to-back inflation shocks drove a sharp institutional retreat from risk assets.

Farside Investors data show BlackRock's IBIT bore the brunt with $284.7 million in redemptions, while ARK Invest's ARKB shed $177.1 million, Fidelity's FBTC lost $133.2 million, and Bitwise's BITB exited $35.4 million, together accounting for the entirety of the day's losses.

The move reverses a five-week inflow streak that had pulled in roughly $3.8 billion in cumulative net inflows through the week ending May 6, and marks the largest single-day outflow since January 29, when funds lost $817.8 million.

"A large part of the outflows was driven by this week's U.S. inflation data, which significantly shifted market expectations around Federal Reserve policy," Illia Otychenko, Lead Analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt.



April's CPI came in at 3.8%, above expectations and the highest reading since September 2023, followed a day later by a PPI print of 6%, the highest since February 2023.

"Together, these releases strengthened concerns that the Federal Reserve may consider rate hikes this year," he said.

Otychenko said the inflation data triggered broad risk aversion, which "by extension hit Bitcoin and caused elevated ETF outflows," and flagged rising bearish derivatives positioning as a further warning sign.

"There has been increased deleveraging of long positions and a rising put/call options ratio, both suggesting bearish sentiment has been increasingly building," he added.

Much will now depend on oil prices and developments around the Strait of Hormuz, Otychenko noted, warning that any prolonged disruption could push energy costs higher and “add another inflationary wave,” increasing pressure on crypto markets.

The outcome of today’s Clarity Act hearing could also “introduce additional volatility” across the sector, he noted.

On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, users place just a 24% chance on the Strait of Hormuz blockade being lifted before June, though the likelihood of crude oil prices surging to $120 has dropped from 76% Wednesday to 65% today.

The Bitcoin ETF sell-off had been building for days, with the funds shedding $268.5 million on May 7 and a further $233.2 million on May 12.

Peter Chung, head of research at Singapore-based algorithmic trading firm Presto Labs, cautioned against reading too deeply into the single-day figure.

"Institutions are a diverse bunch. The markets can rally on the back of bullish sentiment of a certain cohort of investors, but the resulting higher price may serve as a strong incentive for another cohort of investors to lock in profits," he told Decrypt, characterizing the activity as "healthy consolidation."

Myriad users are pricing a greater than 84% chance of Bitcoin's next move being a push to $84,000 rather than a collapse to $55,000—though near-term sentiment leans cautious, with users only assigning 41% chance of BTC closing above $80,000 by Friday 4 pm UTC.

Bitcoin is trading at $79,540, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours after briefly touching the $82,000 range last weekend, according to CoinGecko data.

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