Regarded within the industry as "Nvidia's strongest challenger," Cerebras went public today on NASDAQ.

Cerebras opened at $350, with an IPO issue price of $185, briefly soaring to $385, representing a premium of over 108% compared to the IPO pricing of $185 per share, triggering an upward circuit breaker on the first trading day.

While this premium is astonishing, traders found that Pre-IPO Perp on TradeXYZ was the most accurate pricing platform for Cerebras, outperforming a number of traditional Pre-IPO platforms.

Reports suggest that traders at Morgan Stanley have also been monitoring Hyperliquid's Cerebras price candlestick, source: community

What exactly has Pre-IPO Perp disrupted?

Before entering comparisons, let's first discuss the opening price of Cerebras's IPO.

On May 4, Cerebras submitted a revised S-1 to the SEC, with an initial pricing range of $115 to $125. This was the first public figure provided by the underwriting team of Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Barclays, and UBS.

On May 8, the price range was adjusted to $125 to $135. On May 11, it was further adjusted to $150 to $160, with the number of shares increasing from 28 million to 30 million. Finally, on the evening of May 13, the final price was set at $185. On May 14, it opened directly at $350.

Now, let's take a look at those platforms.

First is Forge Global, a private secondary market used by professional organizations, which seems to have the worst pricing.

Forge is currently one of the largest secondary trading markets for private equity globally, listed on the NYSE, serving institutional investors, VCs, and accredited individual investors. Its core product, "Forge Price," is an algorithmic pricing model that integrates secondary market transactions, financing round information, and platform order data, considered one of the most authoritative price references in the private market.

Accessing Forge requires passing a qualified investor certification, with a minimum annual income of $200,000 or net worth exceeding $1 million. This is not a place ordinary people can enter.

The price trend of Cerebras on Forge is clear from the chart: from about $20 per share in 2023, stabilizing in the $30 to $40 range by early 2025, rapidly climbing with financing news in early 2026, and on May 12, the day before the IPO pricing, the final reading of Forge Price was $113.50, corresponding to a valuation of $29.26 billion.

The deviation of Forge Price at $113.50 from the closing price of $311 is already at 174%, not to mention the opening price of $350.

Next, let's look at the more active secondary market, Hiive. Hiive's positioning is similar to Forge but focuses more on active trading matchmaking, with a user profile that is closer to high-net-worth individual investors and small VCs, resulting in a higher transaction frequency than Forge. From Hiive's price trend chart, it can be seen that Cerebras's price updates on Hiive were more frequent with more volatility.

The final transaction price published by Hiive was $224.93, marked as "Final Hiive Price," which was the last valid price before Cerebras's listing on that platform.

$224.93 is much more accurate than Forge's $113.50, but still 38% off from the closing price of $311 and 56% from the opening price of $350.

The reason Hiive's figures are more accurate than Forge's is that its transactions occurred later and were more concentrated, capturing more market sentiment closer to the IPO. However, it remains a one-sided market, with only real equity buying and selling, no short-selling mechanism, and no continuous matchmaking 24/7.

Now, let's look at TradeXYZ.

Launched on May 1 with an initial reference price of $175, offering a maximum leverage of 5 times, anyone globally holding a USDC wallet can participate and can go long or short.

Within two weeks, the transaction price of the on-chain Pre-IPO Perp stabilized in the $288 to $320 range. On the evening of May 14, just three hours before NASDAQ officially opened for retail trading, the CBRS on-chain contract price rapidly surged from the $290 range to $380, with a single-hour transaction volume nearing $100 million. The total transaction volume over 24 hours was $280 million, with a position volume of $57.77 million, making it the fourth largest active stock contract on the platform.

Some might say that TradeXYZ just got lucky this time, and its accurate pricing is merely a coincidence.

But this rebuttal overlooks something more important: TradeXYZ's accurate pricing is not accidental, but structural.

Why TradeXYZ's pricing is more accurate

To understand why TradeXYZ's pricing is more accurate, one must first grasp why traditional IPO pricing power has been monopolized by investment banks for so long.

The operation of traditional IPO pricing mechanisms relies on one core premise: all judgments regarding "how much this company is worth" must be aggregated through the investment bank's book of inquiries.

CEOs and CFOs travel to major financial centers, meeting all major institutional investors one-on-one within two weeks, narrating the company's story and collecting indicative prices. All these indications flow into the inquiry book controlled by the underwriters.

No one knows how much Fidelity offered, how many shares BlackRock subscribed to, or what the indicative price of Tiger Global is. The investment bank is the only one who can see the entire picture.

This information asymmetry creates the bargaining power of investment banks. They can set the price at a position "that can clear the order book but leaves enough room for the institutional first-day increase," an art form. An oversubscription of 20 times in the inquiry book indicates that all institutions know that $185 is low; but the investment bank locks away this information, still setting the offering price at $185, allowing institutions to harvest an 89% first-day gain at opening and encouraging them to participate in future roadshows.

But when a 24/7 operating on-chain market exists, which allows anyone to participate and to short sell, with all positions visible in real time, pricing information no longer needs to be aggregated through the inquiry book.

The higher the qualifications, the poorer the pricing. The more open it is, the more accurate the pricing.

TradeXYZ allows anyone globally to participate, with no asset thresholds, no geographical limitations, and no invitation system. Every transaction and every order represents participants expressing their judgments about the value of Cerebras with real money.

This means that TradeXYZ's prices aggregate a much broader set of information than a roadshow, not just institutional judgments, but those of all market participants recognizing this IPO opportunity. More information sources mean closer proximity to the true value.

At the same time, the short-selling mechanism makes the prices harder to distort.

Forge and Hiive are fundamentally one-sided markets. Sellers are employees or early investors looking to cash out, and buyers are accredited investors who see potential in the company. No one can openly bet "I think this company is overvalued" — because the channel for short-selling simply does not exist.

This results in a systemic bias: prices in one-sided markets can only be driven by upward pressure, with bears having no outlet to express their views, and the prices ultimately presented will systematically lean optimistic.

TradeXYZ allows short-selling. Anyone who thinks Cerebras is overvalued can open a short position with margin, expressing their judgment with real positions. This two-sided game is a necessary condition for price equilibrium, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts making it harder for prices to be dominated by a single sentiment.

Most importantly, Forge Price updates once a day, is an output of an algorithmic model, and not real-time market transactions. Hiive's transactions are discrete, sometimes taking days for a single transaction. During the roadshow, the investment banks release price signals to the market every few days, with selective disclosures each time.

TradeXYZ is a continuously operating matchmaking market, updating prices every three seconds. For example, when news breaks about Sam Altman appearing in a roadshow video, or rumors leak that Arm and SoftBank attempted to acquire Cerebras, causing the oversubscription of the inquiry book to jump from 10 times to 20 times, prices move immediately.

This year's Pre-IPO wave has just begun.

Cerebras is just the first. Later this year, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public. This will be one of the largest batches of technology IPOs in human history, potentially raising over $100 billion.

This also means that Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ will continue to disrupt the perceptions of Wall Street and hold more pricing power.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。