On May 15, 2026, the flames of war ignited macro sentiment from the Persian Gulf: the Iran war led to a disruption in energy supply, putting pressure on the global crude oil and refined product markets, forcing U.S. refiners to operate close to effective maximum capacity for the remainder of the year. On the same day, according to The Wall Street Journal, AI giant Anthropic is seeking about $30 billion in a new round of financing, betting capital on the AGI narrative amidst rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, on-chain, risk appetite is being squeezed into more extreme leveraged betting tables—according to Onchain Lens, trader Loracle.hl shorted about 1.36 million HYPE on Hyperliquid with approximately 5 times leverage, with a nominal value of about $59.9 million and a liquidation price around $61.71; another address shorted about 300,000 HYPE with 10 times leverage, with a nominal value of approximately $13.2 million, experiencing unrealized losses under adverse short-term trends. Under the macro geopolitical and energy shocks, traditional risk assets and on-chain traders have given starkly different betting directions: one side is betting on the continuation of the AI capital cycle, while the other piles up high-leverage shorts on a single token; meanwhile, Euler Labs announced it will take over the HyperEVM lending market and shut down the original HypurrFi brand, bundling this round of HYPE leverage expansion with the migration of the underlying DeFi protocol. This article will dissect how macro shocks are amplified into a gamble on-chain along this timeline.

Iran War Raises Energy and Inflation Anxiety

The war in Iran has effectively cut off energy supply from the Persian Gulf, with related infrastructure deemed unlikely to recover in the short term. U.S. refiners are forced to operate close to effective maximum capacity for the remainder of 2026. In this scenario, the U.S. is described as "releasing one barrel, replenishing 1.2 barrels" to adjust its strategic oil reserves, while also placing more pressure on the refining sector: tightening supply coupled with improved crude processing margins means that refined product prices have stronger momentum to be transmitted to end-users, leading to a resurgence of inflation anxiety in market pricing, further compressing the already tight valuation safety margins for risk assets.

Worse still, the "ceasefire" in this conflict has not provided a stable expectation. U.S. President Trump openly stated that he did not approve of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, claiming that it was achieved only at the request of other countries, and he bluntly declared the Iran proposal "unacceptable." In this context, any ceasefire text appears more like a fragile temporary arrangement. The uncertainty of the geopolitical situation has been amplified again, and the market has limited confidence in the Iran proposal itself, tending to reserve a premium for the possibility of longer-lasting high energy prices and more persistent inflation expectations. This uncertainty also becomes an unavoidable background variable for on-chain gamblers constructing positions later on.

$30 Billion Bet on Anthropic's AGI Narrative

The geopolitical shocks are pushing oil prices and inflation expectations higher, and in traditional theory, such an environment should compress the valuation space of all long-lasting narratives. However, at the same time the market is repricing the "energy premium," a single source report from The Wall Street Journal indicates that Anthropic is seeking about $30 billion in new financing—under the current mix of interest rates and risk sentiment, this amount itself is like a counter-trend footnote: some are willing to continue paying a high price for the long-term vision of AGI in a macro environment full of uncertainties.

This financing is still in the "seeking" stage, with the report not providing a clear list of investors or transaction valuation ranges, nor disclosing how this capital will specifically be invested in research and development or commercialization—it remains more of a capital intention outline captured by the media. If this round of financing is eventually realized, it will become one of the largest single rounds of financing in the AI sector thus far, continuing Anthropic's financing advantage in the AGI race; before the outcome is clear, it resembles a barometer of sentiment, reminding the market that amid high energy costs and inflation shadows, some are betting on an intelligence narrative that could be validated only years later.

HYPE Whales Use Leverage to Short, Liquidation Price Elevated

Synchronously with capital betting on the "long-term intelligence narrative" in the primary market, some on-chain participants have chosen to shoot at the current emotional mainline. According to data from Onchain Lens, renowned trader Loracle.hl is heavily betting on Hyperliquid—shorting about 1.36 million HYPE with a nominal value of approximately $59.9 million, using about 5 times leverage, with a liquidation price pinned at the high of $61.71. This is not a short-term probe, but rather a directional challenge during a macro volatility period against the HYPE narrative itself and broader risk appetite.

According to disclosures from on-chain analyst Ai Yi, another position pushes this gamble further to the extreme: a certain address shorted about 300,000 HYPE with 10 times leverage, with an opening average price of $43.398 and a nominal value of approximately $13.2 million, currently facing unrealized losses of about $187,000, indicating that short-term price trends have begun to backfire against the shorts. Should these two high-leverage large short positions encounter severe price fluctuations, the liquidation lines will change from "elevated" to a potentially triggered domino effect at any moment, and without publicly available evidence showing they are hedge positions and without confirmation whether they have been partially or fully liquidated, these positions themselves constitute part of the structural risks on-chain for HYPE.

HypurrFi Shutdown, Euler Takes Over Lending

Just as HYPE leveraged shorts are being pushed step by step toward the liquidation line, the lending side's floor is also starting to move. Euler Labs announced that it will directly operate the lending business on HyperEVM, and the previously independent HypurrFi brand was subsequently shut down, with its existing business entirely transferred to Euler. This means that the lending market on HyperEVM has been incorporated into the Euler system, eliminating the dual-brand risk and custody expectations previously faced by users, and directly linking them to Euler Labs. It is worth noting that the announcement did not disclose details regarding migration subsidies, risk parameter adjustments, etc., leaving a gap for the market to fill on its own.

This gap appears precisely at the moment when on-chain sentiment is most tense. On one side, there are millions of HYPE high-leverage short positions on Hyperliquid, while on the other, there is still active lending demand on HyperEVM. There is overlap among users on both sides; some traders may simultaneously rely on lending for leverage while amplifying directional bets on derivatives platforms. Under this structure, the change of the lending market operator is not just a change of the interface logo, but a forced rewriting of expectations surrounding liquidation processes, risk control style perceptions, and even the imagination of "who will backstop." Even if there is currently no public evidence showing that risk parameters have been adjusted, the mere migration of the brand and operating rights itself is sufficient to prompt participants holding high-leverage positions to reassess their leverage exposures and the stability of their liquidation environments.

Three Clues to the On-Chain Gamble Amid Macroeconomic Storms

Zooming out, this round of "on-chain gambling" is actually tightening along three clues simultaneously: first, the Iran war has cut off energy supply from the Persian Gulf, forcing U.S. refiners to operate close to effective maximum capacity for the remainder of 2026. Under the "release 1 barrel, replenish 1.2 barrels" strategic reserve operation, inflation and interest rate expectations are forced to be repriced, and the macro risk premium rises; second, the capital side is still telling an extremely long story—according to a single source report from The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic is seeking about $30 billion in financing, which, if realized, would place bets on the AGI track at historical highs amidst macro uncertainties; third, on-chain and derivatives levels, according to disclosures from Onchain Lens and on-chain analyst Ai Yi, Loracle.hl and another address have collectively established over 1.6 million HYPE high-leverage shorts on Hyperliquid, while the HyperEVM lending market has seen a change in operating entities due to Euler Labs taking over, creating new unknowns in the liquidation environment and hedging options for these shorts. Whether we can see the trajectory of this gamble clearly moving forward depends on how the Iran war and energy markets evolve, whether Anthropic's $30 billion financing can progress as reported, and whether the distance of HYPE prices relative to several large short liquidation prices is rapidly shortened or gradually widened.

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