Dear partners, Bitcoin has stabilized within the range of 76500-77500 for two consecutive days, the trend is tense like a spring ready to release, the market appears calm, and the short-term panic of a major drop has temporarily eased.

Currently, both bulls and bears are in a wait-and-see mode, the bears are wary of a sudden surge that could trigger short squeezes, while the bulls fear a break below the price level. Everyone is waiting for Wash's inauguration statement on the 22nd, as well as developments in the Iranian situation, closely watching the critical level of 75000 for a directional breakout. The calmer the market, the stronger the explosive potential for future trends.

1. The market is not forming a bottom; it is actually a weak stalemate.

The four-hour chart continues to show small K lines and doji stars, with trading volume continuously shrinking to very low levels, indicating not a balance between bulls and bears but a collective wait-and-see from market participants.

The daily bearish trend remains unchanged, the price is below the 200-day moving average,the moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the MACD death cross has not improved. The short-term moving averages are crossing downward, and upward momentum is weak. It is important to understand that a true bottom is formed naturally when a downtrend exhausts itself, not through a prolonged horizontal pattern.

2. 75000 Becomes the Core Battlefield for Bulls and Bears

This level is both aFibonacci 0.382 retracement level and corresponds to the CME futures gap area of 75500-76000. A large number of bull leverage positions are concentrated around 75500, and a pullback to this level could easily trigger focused liquidations. A rebound could relieve the pressure on bulls; both sides are locked in a stalemate, and those who act first are likely to face counter pressure.

3. Major News is Coming, Tomorrow Will Determine Market Direction

Kevin Wash will officially take office as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve tomorrow. Past data shows that new chairmen generally see U.S. Treasury yields rise within three months of taking office. Currently, both short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury rates are high; if hawkish statements are released, Treasury yields may break through key levels, likely causing the 75000 support to fail; if the attitude is more dovish, the market may experience a wave of negative rebounds as it waits for news to settle.

4. Market Fund Flows Are Diverging

Bitcoin ETF had a significant net outflow of funds last week, with high amounts flowing out on single days, and the Coinbase premium has continued to be negative. Major overseas funds are continuously reducing their holdings. However, exchange inventory levels have dropped to seven-year lows, long-term players remain committed to locking in their positions, while addresses with small to medium holdings are increasing, and large holding addresses are decreasing. The intentions of large holders remain unclear, with the overall short-term trend being weak while the long-term view is on the overall market structure.

5. Three Predictions for Future Market Trends

1. (45%) First to test 75000-75500, triggering liquidations followed by a slight rebound to 77000-78000, with bulls and bears alternating in washing positions. 2. (35%) Directly breaking below 75000, initiating an accelerated drop, targeting 72000-73000, multiple bearish factors easily leading to this outcome. 3. (20%) A slight rebound to 78000-79000, only with good news materializing as a low probability.

6. Practical Trading Thoughts

At the current price of 76800, maintain a wait-and-see stance and no longer lay out long-term long positions, instead, undertake quick entries and exits with light short positions. After rebounding to 77500-78500, sell short in batches when encountering resistance, with a short-term target of 76000-75000, and continue holding mid-term short positions, aiming for 75000-72000.

The horizontal trend is the calm before the storm, and 75000 is the last line of defense. With tomorrow's news settling, the market direction will soon become clear.

Official Account: Big Bull says Market

Warm Reminder: This is only a personal market opinion and is not investment advice; trading profits and losses are at your own risk.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。