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Trump's Multidimensional Game: Diplomacy, AI, and the Divergence of Cryptocurrency Markets

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智者解密
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1 hour ago
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On May 21, 2026, the United States simultaneously pressed several seemingly unrelated buttons in diplomacy, AI policy, and technology capital markets: at the opening ceremony of the new consulate in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howeley publicly stated that Trump had ruled out the option of military action against Greenland, "the future of Greenland should be decided by the local people," cooling the previously tense narrative surrounding the island; on the same day, Trump told the media that he was negotiating with Iran and was confident that "an agreement will always be reached in some way," but emphasized that he was closely monitoring Iran and Oman’s plans to impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, while Secretary of State Rubio warned that if tolls were imposed, reaching a diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran would become more difficult, intertwining easing and pressure within the same rhetoric; in technology policy, an AI executive order originally scheduled to be signed that day was temporarily halted, with Trump only explaining that he was "not satisfied" with certain aspects, making it difficult for outsiders to determine how the U.S. would balance AI safety and international competitiveness. In stark contrast to this uncertainty in policy and diplomacy, there was a directional vote from capital: AI startup Hark announced the completion of a $700 million Series A financing round, with a post-investment valuation of approximately $6 billion, led by Parkway Venture Capital, with participation from NVIDIA, AMD Ventures, and ARK Invest; in the cryptocurrency infrastructure sector, however, the cross-chain settlement protocol Everclear, which uses a solver-based cross-chain liquidity rebalancing mechanism, announced around the same time that it would close its foundation, Labs, and product development, citing difficulties in converting high trading volumes into sustainable revenue. This article will focus on this set of highly overlapping signals: against the backdrop of Trump's multi-pronged chess game, strained diplomacy, and a wavering AI regulatory path, incremental capital is leaning more towards the AI track with higher certainty and greater imaginative potential, while some cryptocurrency infrastructure projects are forced to shift from expansion to contraction.

Diplomatic Battlefield: Cooling Relations with Greenland and Pressuring Iran

On May 21, 2026, the U.S. chose to send completely different signals from both ends of the Earth. At the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the new consulate in Nuuk, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howeley publicly relayed Trump's position: the possibility of using force against Greenland has been ruled out, and the future of the island should be decided by the people of Greenland. After several years of Trump repeatedly expressing "interest in Greenland," this statement of "ruling out military action" serves as a definitive conclusion, returning the narrative, which could easily be interpreted as territorial disputes or even military adventurism, back to the realm of public opinion and diplomacy, providing allies and local society with a story version that is predictable and safe.

On the same day, the focus shifted to the Middle East, where the tone was noticeably harsher. Trump emphasized in response to questions that he was negotiating on the Iran issue and was "confident that an agreement will always be reached in some way," while simultaneously stating that he was closely monitoring the developments regarding Iran and Oman’s plans to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz; Secretary of State Rubio clarified: once Tehran imposes tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, it will be more difficult for the U.S. and Iran to reach a diplomatic agreement. Here, Trump not only prioritized Iran affairs over his personal itinerary, being perceived as willing to miss his eldest son's wedding for this cause but also used the combination of "hope for a negotiation + a toll red line" to offer Tehran a carrot while wielding a stick. The withdrawal of military options towards Greenland, coupled with the consulate and “decided by the people” to soothe allies' perceptions, while setting the maritime tolls as the negotiation bottom line in Hormuz, creates a dynamic of loosening in one area and tightening in the other, effectively retaining maximum leverage for U.S. core security and energy interests while packaging its toughness as a still "explainable and controllable" posture to allies.

Domestic Matters Yield to National Interests: Iran Takes Priority Over Wedding Absence

According to a single source, Trump’s eldest son’s wedding was scheduled for the Memorial Day weekend in 2026 on a private island in the Bahamas, which should have been a large ceremony easily marketed as a "tender moment" in family political narratives. However, when discussing his itinerary, Trump proactively stated: he would prioritize handling Iran affairs and might therefore miss his eldest son’s wedding. At the same time, he declared confidence that he would "always reach an agreement with Tehran in some way” while emphasizing he was closely monitoring the plans regarding tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, tying this critical chokepoint for global oil transportation to his personal schedule.

In the eyes of the public, this posture of "sacrificing personal matters for Iran negotiations" was quickly interpreted as a signal of the crisis level: if even a family wedding can be set aside for this, it indicates that Washington's assessment of the toll risks in Hormuz has already influenced the presidential schedule. The situation in the Middle East and the security of energy passage have always been core variables in the global market’s pricing risk preferences; once investors believe the toll costs in the Strait of Hormuz may be rewritten, the risk premium on oil prices and inflation expectations will be added in advance to asset prices. In such an atmosphere, technology stocks, growth stocks, and even risky assets like cryptocurrency will become more sensitive to any wording and actions related to Iran and strait security, with prices trading not only on economic data but also on whether Trump appears on a small Bahamian island.

AI Battlefield: Delay of Executive Order and Regulatory Tug-of-War

Just as the market focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the AI executive order originally scheduled to be signed on May 21 was temporarily put on hold. When pressed for comments, Trump only provided the vague statement, "not satisfied with certain aspects," without indicating which specific point nor committing to a new timeline. Coupled with the briefings on the designated nature of this executive order—as a tool weighing AI safety against U.S. international competitiveness—this delay resembles a public “rejection”: not a denial of regulation itself, but a reminder to all parties that he has yet to decide, or is unwilling to firmly establish, which side to lean more heavily on.

This uncertainty directly impacts the internal dynamics of the technology industry. On one end are corporate legal and compliance teams: originally attempting to define "lines that cannot be crossed" based on this, they now can only push back decisions regarding certain high-risk scenarios, training data, and model deployments, waiting for clearer signals. On the other end is the interpretation from capital and practitioners: the executive order has been delayed rather than retracted, leading many to view it as a sign that the U.S. is still deliberately leaving policy space for AI competitiveness—trying to avoid shackling local technology and industries as much as possible under the premise of risk control. Placing this alongside the Greenland and Iran issues, Trump chose to prioritize clarifying his stance on strait tolls and regional security while leaving AI regulation in a "pending revision" state, which effectively ranks algorithmic risks lower on the agenda while keeping technological advantages on the table as maneuvering chips. This deliberate retention of uncertainty itself is his method of balancing safety and industry concerns.

Capital Frenzy: Hark Financing Ignites AI Market

On the same day the executive order was put on hold, the capital market produced a completely different rhythm. AI startup Hark announced the completion of a $700 million Series A financing round, with a post-investment valuation of approximately $6 billion—while many companies are still meticulously managing seed and Series B rounds, this large-scale Series A seems more like a "premature cash-in" gamble, directly exposing the high-risk tolerance of capital. The briefings provided only a vague outline: Hark is classified as an AI startup, with its venture spanning AI hardware and personal AI assistant directions, but even lacking a clear product and business model disclosure, capital chose to place its bets first and wait for the narrative to gradually fill in.

More crucially, who is placing the bets. This round was led by Parkway Venture Capital, with participation from institutions such as NVIDIA, AMD Ventures, and ARK Invest, marking a rare gathering of computational power suppliers and funds known for high-growth bets, amplifying the future premiums from underlying computational power to top-layer applications in one go. In a context where the regulatory framework remains unclear and the specific direction of the executive order has been deliberately "delayed," capital proactively accelerated, indicating that the market is not inclined to wait for a perfect compliance handbook to take action but is more willing to buy into the growth narrative and infrastructure benefits of AI first, then endure the noise of policy changes. This choice, contrasting with the shrinkage of some cryptocurrency infrastructure projects, constitutes a collective vote on the future technological trajectory.

Everclear Shuts Down: Flow Cannot Save Cross-Chain Business

In stark contrast to Hark being raised to several billion dollars in valuation, Everclear chose to "shut down" within the same time window. This cross-chain settlement protocol, which employs a solver-based liquidity rebalancing mechanism, announced the closure of its foundation, Labs, and product development. The official explanation provided is not a technical failure, but rather a business model that is unsustainable: this design, facilitated by solvers and transporting liquidity across multiple chains, has reportedly achieved about $500 million in monthly trading volume, yet still cannot convert throughput into sustainable income. In other words, even with heavy traffic in the channels, cross-chain settlement businesses face double pressure—compression of the pricing space and users' extreme sensitivity to prices—making it hard to extract enough "water money" from each cross-chain transaction, and convincing capital to continue subsidizing this high-frequency, low-margin liquidity transport proves difficult.

Everclear DAO plans to remain, considering options such as open-sourcing the protocol and repurchasing CLEAR tokens (according to a single source), transitioning the project from expansion to maintaining existing order, essentially acknowledging that the solver-based model for cross-chain settlement has difficulty articulating a sufficiently large profit story given the current market environment. When laid out beside Hark's massive financing, the stark contrast of “AI receiving high valuation, cross-chain protocols forced to constrict” becomes tangible: the same capital is willing to advance premiums for future cash flows from computational power and models on one side, while on the other side it begins to scrutinize infrastructure that finds it difficult to widen pricing boundaries. Everclear's shutdown is both a commercial judgement of a project and an interim answer to which technology route the capital sees as more worthy of betting.

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