Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market that hit its first $10 billion monthly trading volume in March 2026, is making a calculated push into one of Asia’s largest and most regulated financial markets. Bloomberg reported on May 22 that the company has appointed Mike Eidlin as its Japan representative and is preparing to lobby regulators and lawmakers for authorization to operate prediction markets locally, with approval targeted by 2030.

Image source: Bloomberg

Polymarket sees Japan as a large, untapped opportunity given that the country has one of Asia’s most developed retail investor bases and a strong appetite for speculative trading products. Prediction markets, however, currently sit in a legal grey area in Japan (neither explicitly authorized nor outright banned), meaning any formal operation at scale would require either a new regulatory category or a legislative amendment.

Japan has long been a bellwether for crypto regulation in Asia. Following the 2014 collapse of Mt. Gox, it was among the first countries in the world to implement a formal licensing framework for crypto exchanges, requiring all platforms to register with the Financial Services Agency (FSA). And, while that framework has expanded steadily, it has not yet addressed prediction markets as a distinct product class.

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The 2030 approval timeline is deliberate because Japan’s regulatory process is, by any measure, extremely meticulous, and any new product categories, especially those tied to decentralized finance ( DeFi) infrastructure and crypto-collateralized markets, typically require extended review periods (sometimes extending into years).

Polymarket’s decision to appoint a representative now and begin lobbying early signals that the company is treating Japan as a long-term institutional project rather than an opportunistic expansion.

The move follows a string of platform milestones that have significantly raised Polymarket’s profile recently. Earlier this year, it received Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authorization to operate as a designated contract market (DCM) in the U.S., a milestone that allowed it to launch perpetual futures trading.

Subsequently, in April, it introduced Polymarket USD, a new stablecoin that replaced bridged USDC.e as its primary collateral, alongside a smart contract infrastructure upgrade that cut gas fees.

Behind these offerings, the platform drew 678,342 unique users in April alone, more than eight times the implied user base of rival Kalshi. It has also been in talks to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation, reflecting broader investor confidence in the prediction market sector’s commercial potential.

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