Tonight at 11 PM, the understanding king will hold an oath-taking ceremony for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The market is now highly focused on his directional choice. I wonder if everyone has heard a "joke" that whenever there's a change in Fed leadership, the market tends to experience a significant downturn. This is not alarmist; it has happened before. For example, in the case of the S&P, during the transitions of the last three FOMC chairmen, the S&P always ended the first month with a drop.

However, here Li Mu discovered through data analysis that the US stock market does not actually fall into turmoil in the first month after a leadership change; instead, it is in a relatively safe "observation period." Furthermore, the impact is more due to maintaining the policy framework or communication style of the predecessor. Additionally, as the cycle extends, the macroeconomic background during each transition is the key variable that determines the intensity of US stock market fluctuations.

With this understanding, let’s focus on Kevin Warsh. First, let’s look at the labels associated with him: more stable, more gradual. This has led many to label him as "hawkish" in light of the recent inflation decline. However, given the ongoing tariff wars and escalating geopolitical conflicts, doesn’t his position seem genuinely "dovish"? Especially considering his proposed new inflation measurement framework, "trimmed mean PCE" (removing the weights of the bottom 24% and the top 31%), under the current tariff and localized commodity shocks, this indicator will be significantly lower than core PCE. Conflicts will eventually pass, and at that time, combined with the two easing points he proposed, if his decision-making weight increases subsequently, wouldn’t it create a narrative of "potential inflation having decreased," thus providing room for rate cuts?

Understanding this, as we observe the market, the results seem to show a similar underlying logic to the mainstream currency macro trends I provided earlier, which is that even if there is downward correction in the short term, the medium term still looks towards a rebound. Of course, this is just Li Mu's prediction. After all, market conditions can change in an instant, and capital and the market can shift at any time. However, based on professionalism and logical reasoning, in the current unchanged macro situation, Li Mu will continue to maintain and practice this viewpoint. Everyone is welcome to observe and verify.

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