On May 23, 2026, Axios cited informed U.S. officials stating that the U.S.-Iran "end of war" agreement is close to being finalized, with just a few key terms left to negotiate; one day later, Trump made high-profile remarks on social media: he had “very good” and “very smooth” calls with leaders from countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, and Israel, claiming that the U.S.-Iran agreement was "basically completed" in negotiations, with details still being polished and an announcement coming soon. In tone, he was throwing a signal to the market close to a ceasefire; however, the same informed official reminded that Trump has not made a final decision and could possibly veto the text at the last moment, ordering a new round of strikes against Iran—ceasefire expectations and escalation threats were laid out on the table simultaneously. For macro traders, this rewrites the risk premium curve of Middle East conflicts: if a ceasefire materializes, oil prices and shipping risk premiums could reasonably retreat; if negotiations fall apart and military actions resume, energy supply and inflation expectations could very likely be pushed to a new level. For the cryptocurrency market, the issue has never been about "whether to look at the news," but rather how this news penetrates oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, reshaping the role distribution of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and dollar-denominated on-chain funds between "risk assets" and "safe-haven positions." Expectations of geopolitical easing and tail military risks are forcing everyone to rewrite a pricing script concerning risk appetite and trading structure.

Ceasefire Expectations Compress Oil Price War Premium

Before Axios released the news on May 23 about the "U.S.-Iran nearing an end of war agreement," the oil and shipping fees contained a war premium hedging “another round of attacks”; once the news came out, the price curve responded not to real supply and demand changes, but rather this premium was discounted in advance by the market. Informed officials emphasized that the only differences remain at the level of wording, and combined with Trump's high-profile claim on social media on the 24th that negotiations were "basically completed," and that he had completed “very good calls” with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, it equates to sending a signal to traders: the worst-case scenario of full escalation has temporarily exited the baseline expectations, and the geopolitical risk factors on crude oil and shipping-related assets need to be recalculated. Historical experience tells the market that whenever news of easing tensions or ceasefire appears in the Middle East, the “war components” in oil prices usually retract first, with safe-haven assets also experiencing a phase of cooling, and this time is no exception.

Once the conflict switches from "escalation" to "easing," the decrease in oil price risk premiums will directly lower global inflation expectations, implying a reduction in the upward pressure from energy components in future inflation readings. The likelihood that the Federal Reserve and other major central banks are forced to tighten rates more aggressively simultaneously decreases—naturally raising risk appetite for global major asset classes—from stocks to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are highly sensitive to real interest rates, all of which will feel the shift signal of “oil prices easing, interest rate constraints slightly relaxing.” However, this is by no means a linear one-way market: the same informed official reminded on the 23rd that Trump has not made a final decision and could still veto the agreement and order new strikes against Iran. The military option is being deliberately kept on the table, preventing the war premium from disappearing instantly. Instead, it will remain compressed within a high-volatility, range-bound structure of oil prices and safe-haven assets, forcing all risk assets' pricing to sway under the dual shadows of "ceasefire reassessment" and "renewed escalation."

From Oil Prices to Inflation Expectations: The Fed's Path is Redrawn

Energy prices are themselves the "main character" in the inflation basket and a macro amplifier in the eyes of central banks: every sharp move in oil prices leaves a clear mark in the CPI of most economies. The Middle East conflict elevates energy risk premiums through increases in oil prices and shipping costs, compelling the Fed and other major central banks to recalibrate between “anti-inflation” and “growth preservation.” Conversely, once the market believes a ceasefire can suppress the mid-term center of oil prices, inflation expectations will be gently revised down. The policy rate path, which was previously forced upward due to the conflict, will also be redrawn by the market. From inflation-linked bonds to swap curves, traders are interested not in today’s oil prices but in the cumulative effect of energy costs in CPI weights over the coming years—this directly enters the Fed’s "data dependency" decision-making framework and becomes a critical input for assessing the necessity of maintaining high-interest rates for longer.

When inflation expectations begin to ease, the chain reaction first manifests itself in U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates: nominal rates no longer need to "pay insurance" for elevated price increases, and the space for real yields to revert opens up while the dollar index loses some support due to “more moderate interest rate trajectories.” Actual yields on U.S. Treasury notes and the dollar index serve as the pricing anchors for global assets, and technology stocks and crypto assets are extremely sensitive to these two variables; historical experience repeatedly shows that during phases of eased inflation pressure, falling real interest rates, and relatively weak dollars, the overall valuation of risk assets tends to expand, with Bitcoin and Ethereum, serving both as high-beta tech risk assets and as “digital gold” in the eyes of certain investors, being more likely to receive reasons for reinvesting and leveraging funds. Currently, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is merely an event at the expectation level and has not yet prompted any formal monetary policy decisions, but the market is already tentatively pricing the chain of “conflict easing—oil price cooling—inflation expectation falling” using future prices of interest rates and exchange rates. Once this chain is confirmed, it will directly reshape the risk-return structure of BTC, ETH, and USD-denominated funds on-chain.

Bitcoin Swings Between Safe-Haven Narrative and High-Beta Risk

As the market tentatively prices in the chain of “conflict easing—oil price cooling—inflation expectation falling,” Bitcoin's role itself is also swinging. Its correlation with stock markets and gold during multiple geopolitical and financial crises has shown to be extremely unstable: sometimes it behaves like gold, being relatively resilient during drastic fluctuations, while at other times it magnifies declines alongside high-risk tech stocks. With the brewing expectation of U.S.-Iran ceasefire, debates around whether it resembles more of a "digital gold" or “high-risk tech stock” have flared up again on trading desks. When safe-haven sentiment rises, the first reaction of funds is still towards gold, dollar cash, and short-term bonds, yet some portion also includes Bitcoin as a diversified hedging tool in their portfolios; once the market becomes more convinced that a ceasefire is imminent, traditional safe-haven assets typically retract their premiums first, high-leverage safe-haven positions will accelerate liquidations, and the part of Bitcoin associated with “safe-haven premium” may also be squeezed out, while its high-beta characteristics, being more sensitive to interest rates and the dollar, will be magnified again.

This narrative flip often leaves its mark first in derivatives: during the rise of safe-haven sentiment, bullish positions betting on Bitcoin futures or hedging will amplify overall holdings, demand for protective puts in the options market rises, implied volatility and put option premiums relative to call options increase; when ceasefire or easing expectations dominate, high-leverage hedge positions tend to reduce or even liquidate, hedge puts are sold off, implied volatility falls, and the term structure transitions from "short-end tight" to a smoother risk appetite curve. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold will switch from "synchronous hedging" to "each going their way" again: the former will follow rates and dollar fluctuations more, while the latter returns to the traditional pricing logic of safe-haven assets. This change in correlation and the combination of future and options holding structures will determine whether Bitcoin is acted upon as a shield or as a leverage magnifier during the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expectation window.

Funds in the Gulf and Middle East: Where Might the Peace Dividend Flow?

When the implied volatility curve begins to "relax," the truly important question becomes: who is holding cash, ready to place their bets on the peace dividend? On May 24, Trump publicly stated that he had “very good calls” with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain regarding Iran issues and peace memorandum, encompassing nearly all core oil-producing countries and regional financial hubs in the Persian Gulf. Their sovereign wealth funds and family offices have long held considerable oil dollars, and during geopolitical tension, these funds prefer to hold short-duration, high-credit dollar assets to guard against sanctions, cross-border payment obstacles, and asset freezes—whether it’s offshore deposits, short-term bonds, or locking liquidity through dollar-denominated on-chain tokens, they are essentially the same class of “defensive dollar positions.”

Once the market begins to believe that “a ceasefire is more likely to materialize,” and oil prices switch from extreme volatility to “high but predictable,” the cash flow and risk budget of these oil-producing countries will undergo structural changes. Historically, under the combination of “risk easing + robust energy cash flow,” Middle Eastern funds tend to significantly increase the weight of equities and alternative assets, especially favoring tech stocks, private equity, and high-risk assets that can amplify upward potential. For Gulf and South Asian capital, crypto assets and dollar-denominated on-chain tokens have always served as technical channels to bypass local financial frictions and directly connect to dollar assets and global risk assets: during conflict periods, they function more like containers for capital flight and hedging dollars; whereas, when security expectations improve, the same channels can quickly switch to offensive risk exposures—dollar tokens transition from "end-position" to collateral and trading mediums for allocating Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets, and the roles of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the eyes of these funds shift from “wartime insurance” to being part of the global technology and liquidity cycle. What needs to be observed next is not whether this money will leave the shore, but whether it will remain with dollar tokens on-chain or be further pushed into spot and derivative positions.

Agreement Not in Place: Crypto Trading Must Prepare Two Scripts

As of May 24, the ceasefire agreement that Trump referred to as “basically completed” still lacks a formal text and timeline, with the only clear information to the public being that he reserves the option to veto and order new strikes against Iran. The market is forced to price in this state of “close to peace but still tail risks”. The first script is the eventual finalization of the agreement, leading to actual de-escalation of conflict: oil price risk premium and safe haven sentiment retract, inflation and financial conditions ease, the dollar index and yield expectations moderate, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are more treated as high beta tech assets benefiting from the reduction of pressure on interest rates and the dollar, but the previously layered “wartime insurance” premium will be gradually stripped away. The second script is Trump vetoing the agreement at the last minute and ordering a new round of strikes: energy prices and safe-haven assets rise together, the trajectory of real interest rates and dollar expectations turns more hawkish, traditional risk assets face pressure, while the crypto side could simultaneously amplify both the “digital gold” narrative and the severe fluctuations brought by deleveraging. In trading, this is not a single-choice question but a hedging question: keeping a close watch on whether the agreement officially materializes, the revaluation of spot and futures curves in oil prices, while simultaneously tracking shifts in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, the correlation drift between Bitcoin and gold and U.S. stocks, net inflows and outflows of on-chain dollar funds, and whether implied volatility in options and futures basis aligns with price directions—all true advantages lie in who can read from these indicators which script is being written into the market earlier.

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